The battle for political salience is heating up as campaigns push competing narratives ahead of the 2024 election. But what do the latest polls really tell us about the mood of the electorate and the issues driving their vote?

In this episode of Cross Tabs, Aaron Zitner, editor and reporter in the Washington Bureau of the Wall Street Journal, joins host Farrah Bostic to discuss the Wall Street Journal's polling program. Zitner shares insights on the shifting coalitions, voter turnout patterns, and issue priorities that could decide the election, and offers advice on how to be a savvy consumer of polls in a highly unpredictable political environment.

• Poll: Election interest hits new low in tight Biden-Trump race (NBC News)
• Five Takeaways From the WSJ Swing-State Poll (Wall Street Journal)
• Survey of Consumers (University of Michigan)
• What Happened™ In 2022 (Catalist)
• Harvard Youth Poll

Aaron Zitner is a reporter and editor in The Wall Street Journal's Washington bureau, focusing largely on how politics are driven by demographic and economic change. He also reports on trends in polling. Earlier, he was the Journal's national politics editor.

Previously, Aaron was deputy chief of the Washington bureau for the Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune and other Tribune newspapers. He helped lead presidential campaign coverage for the Los Angeles Times and served as the paper’s White House and Washington economics editor.

Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at https://www.thedifferenceengine.co/ and connect with Farrah at https://www.linkedin.com/in/farrahbostic/.

• Website & newsletter: https://www.crosstabspodcast.com

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In this episode of Cross Tabs, we delve into the complexities and limitations of public opinion polling with guest Mike Podhorzer. Mike, a seasoned political strategist with a rich history in the labor movement, most recently as former political director of the AFL-CIO, walks us through the weaknesses and blind spots of public polling. We touch on topics such as the differences between polling data and actual voting behavior, the flaws of national polls versus state by state or regional "ecosystem" polling, and how polling can distort public perception and affect campaign strategies. We also discussed the historical context and evolution of polling, highlighting key issues like the misinterpretation of voters' priorities and the psychological impact of polling on voter turnout. But it's not all bad news - Mike does offer insights into how polling can be improved and how better strategies can be employed in political campaigns.

Mentioned Resources:

"We Gave Four Good Pollsters the Same Raw Data. They Had Four Different Results." by Nate Cohn for The Upshot at the New York Times.

"Mad Poll Disease Redux" by Mike Podhorzer at Weekend Reading

"A Cure for Mad Poll Disease" by Mike Podhorzer at Weekend Reading

"The Newsroom is Not a Safe Space" by Ben Smith at Semafor

"Terrible Food and Such Small Portions" by Mike Podhorzer at Weekend Reading

You should definitely subscribe to Weekend Reading! Find it here: https://www.weekendreading.net/

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You can follow me on most social platforms at @farrahbostic

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Coming soon: a YouTube channel!!

Ever noticed public opinion pollsters talking about "matching survey respondents to the voter file"? No? Just me?

Pollsters use voter file data - public records about who voted - to identify registered and likely voters. This data is used to shape election strategies and predict outcomes. Our guest reveals how raw voter rolls are transformed into powerful tools for micro-targeting and predictive modeling that campaigns rely on.

In this episode of Cross Tabs, host Farrah Bostic and guest Paul Westcott, Executive Vice President at the political data firm L2, discuss the complex process of collecting, cleaning, and enriching voter data. Westcott shares fascinating insights into how L2 builds comprehensive voter profiles by combining public records with consumer data, enabling campaigns to identify and persuade key voter segments. The conversation also explores the challenges of polling methodology in an era of declining response rates.

"Hacking the Electorate: How Campaigns Perceive Voters" by Eitan Hersh

"Race and ethnicity data for first, middle, and surnames" by Kosuke Imai

L2 Voter Mapping tool

LiveRamp

AAPOR (Association of Public Opinion Researchers)

Paul Westcott is the Executive Vice President of Sales & Marketing at L2, where he has significantly expanded the company's footprint across various industries, including academia, consumer research, corporate government affairs, automotive, media, and B2C marketing. With over 300 U.S. Representatives and Senators utilizing L2, Paul has helped make the company the largest provider of constituent contact data to Congress. Prior to L2, Paul worked in media for NBC News, Fox News Channel, and iHeartMedia, where he created and hosted a daily talk show and podcast covering news and politics. Learn more about L2 at l2-data.com and connect with Paul on LinkedIn.

Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.

Website & newsletter: crosstabspodcast.com

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In an era of widespread mistrust in public polling, a deep dive into the world of political surveys reveals stark differences between public and private polling methodologies. Strategic research consultants Shannon Janean Currie and Natalie Lupiani at Benenson Strategy Group share insider insights on crafting effective polls, identifying key voter segments, and navigating the challenges of an increasingly complex electoral landscape.

With extensive experience in qualitative and quantitative research, these experts discuss the nuances of understanding undecided voters, the impact of question wording and order, and the critical role of transparency in building trust in polling results. They also share their pet peeves about the public discourse surrounding polls and offer advice for consumers navigating the deluge of political polling data.

Mentioned resources:

• Echelon Insights “Do Voters Have The Wrong Kennedy In Mind?”: Do Voters Have The Wrong Kennedy In Mind?
• Harvard Youth Poll 46th Edition - Fall 2023
• Dan Balz “Collision 2012: The Future of Election Politics in a Divided America”: Amazon Link - Collision 2012: The Future of Election Politics in a Divided America
• Benenson Strategy Group: Benenson Strategy Group | Strategic Consultants | United States

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No punditry. No predictions. Just the polls and how to make sense of them.

Amelia Showalter, co-founder and CEO of Pantheon Analytics, former Director of Digital Analytics for President Obama’s re-election campaign, talks to Farrah about the use of data experiments by campaigns to drive donations, volunteerism and turnout in elections. They also discuss the art of redistricting and the importance of local knowledge, and the way vote by mail has evolved, both as a partisan issue and a true driver of voter participation.

AUDIO NOTE: It's all Farrah's fault that the audio is not quite as nice as normal. Reminder not to disturb the Volt 2 during recording. (oops)

Don't forget to hit subscribe in whatever app this is!

Here are all the ways to keep in touch:

• Subscribe to our newsletter on our website, CrossTabsPodcast.com
• Follow Farrah on instagram and threads at @farrahbostic
• Or follow Farrah for updates on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/farrahbostic/

No punditry. No predictions. Just the polls and how to make sense of them.

David Radloff, co-founder of Clarity Campaign Labs which provides modeling and analytics, polling and strategy for Democratic campaigns, progressive organizations and non-profits, joins Farrah to talk about how campaigns create and use predictive models - about party preference and about turnout - to develop campaign strategy and predict electoral outcomes.

Don't forget to hit subscribe in whatever app this is!

Here are all the ways to keep in touch:

• Subscribe to our newsletter on our website, CrossTabsPodcast.com
• Follow Farrah on instagram and threads at @farrahbostic
• Or follow Farrah for updates on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/farrahbostic/

No punditry. No predictions. Just the polls and how to make sense of them.

In our second episode of Cross Tabs, Paul Soldera and Farrah Bostic answer listener questions about how questions are formed, why scales work (or don't work) the way they do, what weighting is, why you would want to "oversample" or use quotas in your sample, and what kinds of differences emerge when you're talking to people on the phone, answering a survey online, or letting someone in to check out what's under your sink.

Don't forget to hit subscribe in whatever app this is!

Here are all the ways to keep in touch:

• Subscribe to our newsletter on our website, CrossTabsPodcast.com
• Follow Farrah on instagram and threads at @farrahbostic
• Or follow Farrah for updates on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/farrahbostic/

No punditry. No predictions. Just the polls and how to make sense of them.

In our inaugural episode released on Iowa's GOP Caucus day, January 15, 2024, host Farrah Bostic (In the Demo Podcast, The Difference Engine) and pal Paul Soldera (Equation Research), set the table for what Cross Tabs is all about: demystifying what polls are and how they work.

Mentioned links:

Jill Lepore's "Politics and the New Machine" [The New Yorker]

Jill Lepore's "The Problems Inherent in Political Polling" [The New Yorker]

What Was Nate Silver's Data Revolution? [The New Yorker]

"Polls' Representative Samples Often Merit Skepticism" [Wall Street Journal]

"How Public Polling Has Changed in the 21st Century" [Pew Research Center]

All in with Chris Hayes, December 21, 2023 [MSNBC]

NY Times/Siena College Poll, December 2023 [New York Times]

"From Which River to Which Sea? College Students Don't Know, Yet They Agree With the Slogan" [Wall Street Journal]

YouGov Poll Links(December 2023):

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/12/20/edc6d/1

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/12/20/edc6d/3

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2023/12/20/edc6d/2

Suffolk University Iowa Poll (January 2024)

"Ann Selzer Is The Best Pollster In Politics" [FiveThirtyEight]

AAPOR Analysis of the 2016 Campaign [AAPOR]

"Trump lost, but he won millions of new voters. Where did they come from?" [Washington Post]

The Focus Group Podcast [The Bulwark]