Poly Marks

#18. Strait Outta Hormuz


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In Episode 18, the boys bounce from Middle East war markets to Midwest chaos. Andrew recaps the U.S. military buildup around Iran (tankers, Growlers, F-35s, “nuclear sniffer” vibes) and why the market is pricing a strike as soon-ish, even if Khamenei-out odds aren’t moving much. The crew pivots to an “alpha” angle: instead of betting regime change, they like the cleaner edge on “Khamenei leaves Iran” (cheap odds, multiple plausible endgames).

Then it’s Gaza / Board of Peace chatter: Russia/India joining the new “Board of Peace” concept, and a spicy flier on Hamas “disarming” (with loophole-friendly wording).

Stateside gets dark and fast: the Minneapolis ICE/Border Patrol protests + shootings spark day-trade opportunities (troops to Minnesota spike that collapses), plus bets on whether federal agents will be charged (likely “no”). They hit the weirdness around the Ilhan Omar vinegar incident and how AI slop instantly poisons the info stream.

Finally, the government shutdown market rips (big spike, volatile), the guys briefly roam 2028 candidate lanes, and Andrew flags Cuba as the next pressure point: Mexico cutting oil shipments + Venezuela changes → bullish for Diaz-Canel “out” markets. End with bankroll updates and the usual “we’re so back” energy.

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Poly MarksBy Andrew, Matt, and Joel