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The war starts with America terribly unprepared.  British efforts to make peace suffer from a lack of focus; Casltereagh is just not applying much brainpower and effort to the American sitution.

Almost no navy.  A tiny regular army like 11,000 men, terribly officered.  No real tax funding for the government to speak of.  Deliberately, they have avoided preparing for war, preferring to pay off the national debt, and are almost entirely unprepared.  And nevertheless  totally confident that they can sleepwalk to victory in Canada.

1812 turns out to defy all expectations, but 1813 sees a turnaround with more American success on land and less at sea.