1BasisPoint

Jay Pelosky argues that a global spending supercycle is globalising earnings growth and setting up emerging market equities, which he says trade at a roughly 20-year relative discount to developed markets.In this episode of 1BasisPoint, we speak with Jay Pelosky, founder of TPW Advisory and a former Morgan Stanley head of asset allocation strategy, about his Tripolar World framework, his "global growth long cycle" thesis, and why he thinks the US is in the early stages of losing its leadership role in global equities.In this episode:- The Tripolar World framework: the Americas, Europe and Asia- Why Jay believes a global spending supercycle could extend the growth cycle toward 2030- AI investment, energy infrastructure and China's industrial advantage- Why emerging markets remain relatively cheap and under-owned- Whether global capital is beginning to rotate away from US assets- The potential consequences of sovereign debt market stress for emerging markets- What could invalidate the bullish case for EM equities- How Jay builds and maintains a global macro investment processTimestamps00:00 – Introduction12:49 – The global growth outlook and the case for sustained investment20:39 – AI, infrastructure and the next phase of the spending cycle38:06 – If emerging markets are so attractive, why haven't they rerated?42:46 – Could stress in developed-market sovereign debt spill over into emerging markets?48:02 – What could reverse the shift toward emerging markets?53:32 – What would prove the spending supercycle thesis wrong?58:00 – What questions did we not ask?1:00:05 – Career advice and getting started in marketsSubscribe to 1BasisPoint for long-form conversations with investors, economists and market practitioners on global macro, emerging markets, rates, FX and capital flows.---📌 Follow Jay PeloskyLinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jay-pelosky-a3a558b8 The Tri Polar World — Substack: https://jaypelosky.substack.com TPW Advisory: https://pelosky.com/advisoryhttps://pelosky.comJay’s Substack, The Tripolar World, covers global macro, multi-asset allocation and thematic investing through the lens of regional integration across the Americas, Europe and Asia. He publishes weekly ‘Friday Musings’ plus a monthly deep dive.---📌 ABOUT 1BASISPOINT1BasisPoint brings you direct access to the fund managers, investors, and capital allocators who don't usually talk publicly. No recycled headlines, no hot takes — just honest, research-backed conversations about how the best in the business actually think.Hosted by Krish & Rehan.🔗 FOLLOW & LISTENWebsite: https://www.1bps.usSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0DoEJuX01OmoxLOBHJXTYr?si=1d244d2e4629480fApple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/1basispoint/id1893808224Subscribe for more conversations with investors, portfolio managers, economists, and market practitioners.---Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. The views expressed by the hosts and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of TPW Advisory or any of its officials. Nothing in this podcast should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or fund. Listeners should consult with a qualified professional for specific advice tailored to their individual circumstances. We are not responsible for any losses or liabilities incurred by acting on information from this podcast.

One of the most memorable ideas from the conversation comes from David Dredge's Formula One analogy: The fastest car isn't necessarily the one with the biggest engine. It's the one that can carry the most speed into the corner — and brakes are what make that possible.

The same idea applies to portfolio construction: the objective isn't simply to minimise risk. It's to build a portfolio that can take productive risk while remaining resilient when the regime changes.

In this episode of 1BasisPoint, we sit down with Antoine Guillon, a portfolio manager and researcher specialising in convexity-driven strategies, volatility, and portfolio construction. Antoine has spent more than two decades across derivatives, structured credit, credit correlation, and equity volatility, including roles at Brevan Howard, Credit Suisse and as the Co-CIO at Fourth Quadrant Investment Group.

We discuss why simply owning convexity isn't enough — and why the right hedge has to be designed around the actual ways a portfolio can fail.

In this episode:

- Why convexity isn't insurance — and why the distinction matters

- How to identify the right convexity for the way a portfolio can actually fail

- How carry can disguise the risk you're being paid to take

- How correlation, leverage, and concentration reshape portfolios during stress

- The economics of tail protection — including hedge bleed, skew, and term structure

- Why backtests can create false confidence when they contain only a handful of crises

- How convexity overlays can allow the core portfolio to take more productive risk

---📌 Follow Antoine Guillon

LinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/in/anguillon/

Tale of Two Tails — Substack: https://taleoftwotails.substack.com/?r=8dm61l&utm_campaign=referrals-subscribe-page-share-screen&utm_medium=web

https://taleoftwotails.substack.com

Antoine's Substack explores convexity, tail risk, volatility, and the geometry of derivative markets.

---📌 ABOUT 1BASISPOINT

1BasisPoint brings you direct access to the fund managers, investors, and capital allocators who don't usually talk publicly. No recycled headlines, no hot takes — just honest, research-backed conversations about how the best in the business actually think.

Hosted by Krish & Rehan.

🔗 FOLLOW & LISTEN

Website: https://www.1bps.us

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0DoEJuX01OmoxLOBHJXTYr?si=1d244d2e4629480f

Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/1basispoint/id1893808224

Subscribe for more conversations with investors, portfolio managers, economists, and market practitioners.

---

Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. The views expressed by the hosts and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of any current or former employer, firm, or affiliated organization. Nothing in this podcast should be construed as a solicitation, recommendation, or offer to buy or sell any security, fund, or financial instrument. Listeners should consult with a qualified professional for specific advice tailored to their individual circumstances. We are not responsible for any losses or liabilities incurred by acting on information from this podcast.

"If I could be reincarnated, I would want to come back as the bond market — because you can intimidate everybody."

I sat down with James Athey, Fixed Income Fund Manager at Marlborough Group. 90 minutes, no filter, no consensus views.

We covered:

→ Why central banks are structurally set up to always be behind the curve and why more data will never fix it

→ The Fed as arsonist and fireman: how the institution creates the very crises it then rescues us from

→ The basis trade: the trillion-dollar vulnerability hiding in plain sight in US Treasury markets

→ Why recessions are not the enemy, they are the medicine a broken system refuses to take

→ The real case for gold and it has nothing to do with inflation

→ Hard currency vs local currency EM debt and why treating them as the same thing is a costly mistake

→ How to think about emerging market debt in a world of rising yields and geopolitical fracture

James Athey has been navigating fixed income markets for over two decades — through the GFC, the zero rate era, and the inflation shock of 2021.

⏱️ TIMESTAMPS

0:01 — Introduction: James's 20+ year journey into fixed income and macro thinking

0:09 — Why bonds over equities? The intellectual case for macro over bottom-up

1:29 — Is bottom-up stock picking still relevant in a world dominated by passive and systematic investors?

5:57 — Why does the stock market only seem to go up regardless of the news?

6:10 — Momentum, retail behaviour, and the self-fulfilling bull market

9:08 — How sustainable is the current bull run?

12:50 — Benchmark-constrained vs unconstrained funds: how the mandate changes the way you think about risk

16:52 — Could we ever return to pre-pandemic yield levels?

21:23 — US foreign policy instability and its real impact on treasury yields

26:30 — The yield curve is steepening while the Fed holds rates. What is the bond market telling us?

33:02 — Why James thinks central bank policy frameworks are fundamentally broken

49:32 — How the Fed could go from not buying treasuries to buying in size overnight

56:14 — Is any of this actually sustainable?

1:01:51 — The recession fixed income playbook: which sovereign bond markets to own and which to avoid

1:19:45 — One piece of advice for anyone trying to understand macro and bond markets from scratch

📌 ABOUT 1BASISPOINT

1BasisPoint brings you direct access to the fund managers, investors, and capital allocators who don't usually talk publicly. No recycled headlines, no hot takes — just honest, research-backed conversations about how the best in the business actually think.

Hosted by Krish & Rehan.

🔗 FOLLOW & LISTEN

Website: https://www.1bps.us

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0DoEJuX01OmoxLOBHJXTYr?si=1d244d2e4629480f

Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/1basispoint/id1893808224

Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. The views expressed by the hosts and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Marlborough Group or any of its officials. Nothing in this podcast should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or fund. Listeners should consult with a qualified professional for specific advice tailored to their individual circumstances. We are not responsible for any losses or liabilities incurred by acting on information from this podcast.

In conversation with Jim Hayes of Lucerna Capital, we talk about Emerging Markets, Macro Trends and some of the most compelling investment opportunities right now.

TL;DR

1. Emerging markets are entering a new multi-year upcycle after a decade of underperformance driven by a strong USD, weak commodities, and capital outflows
2. Macro tailwinds are turning: weaker USD, rising commodities, and global fiscal expansion are improving growth and liquidity conditionsEM remains cheap, under-owned, and low expectation, creating asymmetric upside if the cycle continues
3. The opportunity is more diversified than past cycles, with less reliance on China and broader drivers across regions
4. Key regional themes: India (private banks as compounding financial plays), Latin America (~50% overweight on valuation + political shift), and Africa (early-stage infrastructure/telecom growth)
5. Main risk is global liquidity tightening, especially rising US bond yields and fiscal deficits, which could trigger volatility or recession but potentially reset the cycle
6. Structural positioning avoids China (structural/regulatory risks) and crowded AI/semiconductor trades in favour of under-owned, mispriced assets.
7. Core strategy is bottom-up stock picking with macro + country risk overlay, focusing on risk-reward, catalysts, and disciplined position sizing across two strategies (long-only + low-net long/short)

The discussion provided a comprehensive strategic view of emerging markets, emphasizing their entrance into a long up-cycle fuelled by macroeconomic shifts and valuation opportunities.

The core thesis is that emerging markets are entering the early stages of a multi-year upcycle after more than a decade of underperformance.

From roughly 2010 onwards, the asset class was held back by a combination of a strong US dollar, weak commodity prices, and persistent capital outflows toward developed markets. The result was a prolonged period of weak earnings growth, depressed valuations, and structural under-allocation by global investors.

That backdrop is now beginning to reverse. A weaker US dollar is easing financial conditions, commodity prices are rising, and global fiscal expansion is driving demand for real assets and infrastructure. Unlike the 2002–2009 cycle, which was heavily dependent on China’s commodity demand, the next phase is expected to be broader and more diversified—with growth driven by financials and domestic demand in India, infrastructure and telecom in Africa, and policy-led recoveries across Latin America.

For investors, this shift matters because emerging markets are coming off a low base. Valuations remain discounted relative to developed markets, capital is still under-allocated, and expectations are muted. This creates the conditions for asymmetric upside if the cycle continues to play out.

However, this is unlikely to be a linear recovery. The biggest risk is global liquidity tightening, particularly from rising US bond yields and expanding fiscal deficits, which could slow growth and redirect capital flows. In the near term, this may lead to volatility or even a recession—but it could ultimately reset and extend the cycle, reinforcing the case for long-term outperformance.

Lucerna’s portfolio reflects thematic bets on structural shifts and valuation disparities across emerging market regions and sectors.

Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. The views expressed by the hosts and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Lucerna Global Capital or any of its officials. Nothing in this podcast should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or fund. Listeners should consult with a qualified professional for specific advice tailored to their individual circumstances. We are not responsible for any losses or liabilities incurred by acting on information from this podcast.

An engaging conversation with Evan Tindell from Bireme Capital on what real value means in investing using Japan as a case study and how AI is transforming roles across industries. We also dive into what it truly takes to stand out as an investor in today’s world.

TL;DR

1. Investment Focus on Japan: Emphasizes undervalued firms like Daiwa Industries, worth $500M, with strong cash positions.
2. Software Sector Insights: Japanese software companies offer attractive PE multiples compared to expensive US firms, despite AI challenges.
3. AI in Investing: Simple algorithms remain effective; AI tools aid in research but don't replace professional investors yet.
4. Behavioural Market Trends: Caution against conflating speculative behaviour with investing skill; prediction markets offer insights but require scepticism.

The discussion with Evan Tindell focused on identifying undervalued market opportunities, particularly in Japan, and understanding evolving software industry dynamics.

• Japan’s investment appeal centres on undervalued companies with strong cash positions and improving corporate governance, despite an aging population
• Evan highlighted Daiwa Industries, valued at approximately $500 million with an annual EBIT of $50-60 million and $400 million in net cash
• The company’s ownership structure limits private equity intervention but ongoing regulatory reforms and activist funds are expected to reshape the market over the next decade

• Private equity interest in Japan is growing, with more funds and assets focused there than ever before, driven by a shift in market culture and regulatory easing

Software sector challenges were discussed with emphasis on the impact of AI and market valuation corrections

• Certain Japanese software companies trade at single-digit PE multiples net of cash with low churn and moderate growth, presenting attractive investment opportunities versus expensive US counterparts
• Cost declines in technology development, such as low-code/no-code solutions, create efficiency pressures but also raise questions about future profit margins for traditional software firms
• The market is skeptical about software firms’ ability to maintain margins amid easier customer self-service and growing open-source alternatives, though support and security services still hold value

The discussion highlighted behavioural trends in markets, gambling parallels, and the influence of prediction markets on decision-making.

• Evan noted a current peak in speculative behaviour and gambling disguised as investing, cautioning against conflating enthusiasm with skill or knowledge
• Prediction markets like Polymarket serve as useful aggregators of public sentiment and probability but remain a form of gambling with some information advantage
• Evan explained that the best odds come from people betting money on opposite outcomes, which often align with real probabilities

• There is a potential risk, though limited, that these markets could influence political actors’ behaviour if they become widely monitored, especially in fragile regimes
• Evan speculated on scenarios like coups where prediction markets might serve as coordination signals for conspirators
• Overall, Evan sees prediction markets as a helpful tool in gauging probabilities but advises skepticism about their direct impact on major policymaking

Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. The views expressed by the hosts and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bireme Capital or any of its officials. Nothing in this podcast should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or fund. Listeners should consult with a qualified professional for specific advice tailored to their individual circumstances. We are not responsible for any losses or liabilities incurred by acting on information from this podcast.

A captivating discussion with Anirudh Sathya on revolutionising deal origination and sourcing through automation.

Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. The views expressed by the hosts and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of ScendAI or any of its officials. Nothing in this podcast should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or fund. Listeners should consult with a qualified professional for specific advice tailored to their individual circumstances. We are not responsible for any losses or liabilities incurred by acting on information from this podcast.

In this compelling interview, Sam Mielke shares his insights as an investment banker at Offdeal, discussing the evolution of finance in the digital age. He explores how traditional banking practices are being transformed by technology, data analytics, and changing market dynamics.

This conversation offers valuable perspectives for aspiring finance professionals, entrepreneurs, and anyone interested in understanding the intersection of technology and traditional finance.

Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. The views expressed by the hosts and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of OffDeal or any of its officials. Nothing in this podcast should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or fund. Listeners should consult with a qualified professional for specific advice tailored to their individual circumstances. We are not responsible for any losses or liabilities incurred by acting on information from this podcast.