This November, we hosted our 9th Firm, Economic & Market Update, covering key topics like strengthened cybersecurity, enhanced client engagement through Salesforce, and our disciplined investment philosophy focused on long-term value creation. Despite 2024's challenges, we stayed focused on guiding clients through volatility while positioning for future opportunities.

Thank you for your loyalty and partnership. Here’s to continued success as we look ahead to 2025 and beyond!

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about the California wildfires and what affect this will have on the American insurance industry and the stock market. They then discuss the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which hit 7% last week, an eight-month high, after rising for five weeks. They address how this is squeezing would-be homebuyers already facing rising house prices and limited supply and what affect this will have on the financial markets.

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As always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about how after a better-than-expected jobs report, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond climbed to 4.8%, its highest level in more than two years. This followed a week which saw bonds sell-off on fears that Trump’s policy proposals of tariffs, lower taxes, and mass deportations could spark a rebound in inflation and recreate the market seen in 2022, when stocks and bonds fell together. They then discuss the dollar surging and pushing the Euro to its lowest value since November 2023, what this will do to the Fed’s thinking on interest rates, and if this is good for the stock market.

Submit your questions to [email protected]

As always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss commodities, how to use them in a portfolio, and their view on the high prices of gold and silver. They then talk about the big investment banks’ outlooks for the S&P 500 Index in 2025. These outlooks look very similar to the predictions they made last year and most predictions over the past 25 years. Should investors pay attention to these forecasts or are they just window dressing?

Submit your questions to [email protected]

As always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry discuss the U.S. dollar’s 7% rise 2024 being the best year it’s had since 2015, and whether this is good for consumers and investors. Then they talk about how even as the Federal Reserve has been cutting interest rates, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has been rising and what effect this will have on the markets.

Submit your questions to [email protected]

As always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about last week’s sell-off in the bond market, which pushed the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond to 4.4%, and what this means for the Fed meetings next week and next month. They then discuss the details of the increase in estate and gift tax exemptions for 2025.

Submit your questions to [email protected]

As always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about the stock market continuing to rally into the new year, a “melt up”, and then the possibility of a "melt down" – a big selloff – next year. They then discuss Bitcoin’s crossing the $100,000 level and if this means Bitcoin has now entered into the financial mainstream.

Submit your questions to [email protected]

As always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about the financial planning moves investors should make before the year ends, such as tax-loss harvesting. They then discuss the possibility of the stock market experiencing a Santa rally over the next month.

Submit your questions to [email protected]

As always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry talk about Donald Trump’s choice of Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary, and what this will mean for the market and the economy. They then discuss what will happen to the economy if the countries we impose tariffs on decide to impose tariffs on American goods and exports.

Submit your questions to [email protected]

As always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.

Phil, Mike, and Larry examine why Warren Buffett’s firm, Berkshire Hathaway, has been a net seller of stocks this year, selling large parts of Berkshire’s holdings in Apple, Bank of America, Capital One and T-Mobile. Does this mean Buffett is expecting a market crash? They then discuss if the combination of giant deficits and tariffs will cause inflation and interest rates to rise and lead to an economic downturn.

Submit your questions to [email protected]

As always, if you have any questions at any time, please feel free to call your adviser directly at (845) 691-4035.