In this special 2025 U.S. Policy Highlights edition of the Vital Health Podcast, we look back at our most important discussions on Most Favored Nation (MFN) drug pricing and its knock-on effects for jobs, state budgets, and the generic supply chain. Over the past year, proposals to link U.S. prices to those in other countries have collided with inflation pressures, tariff debates, and reshoring efforts, creating new uncertainty for manufacturers, payers, and policymakers. In an environment where expectations about future returns are shifting, and the rules of the game are still being defined, this episode is designed as a year-end guide to what MFN-style policies could mean in practice and how to think about the tradeoffs.

Throughout 2025, we our research on MFN-style reference pricing with a series of podcast episodes where host Duane Schulthess sat down with leaders across the generic, distribution, and policy landscape. In this highlights episode, we revisit several of those conversations:

• Kirsten Axelsen: Part D Shift, IRA Penalties, and Access Risks
• Patrick Kelly: Inside the Generic Supply Chain Squeeze
• John Murphy: Generics, Biosimilars, and U.S. Policy
• VT’s Grumpies (Harry Bowen, Joe Hammang) Talk MFN

Key Topics:

• MFN Mechanics Explained: How tying U.S. prices to the lowest GDP-adjusted price in a reference basket translates into steep cuts for top-spend medicines in Medicare Parts B and D and shapes expectations across commercial and Medicaid contracts.
• Jobs, Earnings, & State Budgets: What our modeling suggests about potential impacts on employment, earnings, and tax revenue under MFN-style reference pricing, and how those effects concentrate in R&D-intensive regions and manufacturing hubs.
• Spillovers Into Medicaid, 340B, & ASP: Why MFN in Medicare does not stay in Medicare, how Medicaid best price and 340B ceilings pull discounts across programs, and what lower ASP add-ons could mean for hospital and community oncology margins.
• Generics, Shortages, & Tariffs: How razor-thin margins for sterile injectables and generic manufacturers interact with purchaser consolidation, tariff shocks, and price referencing, raising the risk of exits, inventory write-downs, and persistent shortages.
• Global Competition & Offshoring: How aggressive reference pricing can accelerate shifts in trials, licensing, and high-value manufacturing to countries that offer more predictable returns, and what that implies for long-run U.S. competitiveness.
• Alternatives To MFN: Ideas from our guests on value-based approaches, targeted incentives, and other tools that can improve affordability without hollowing out domestic capacity, innovation, and resilience in the generic and biosimilar supply chain.

Opinions expressed are those of the speakers.

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