Celtics off season

There was an inevitable split with Brown

Writing on the wall

Jaylen Brown liked the Bomani Jones post that Tatum should have stood up for Brown more.

Brown posted stats at all-star break

Jaylen Brown posted a side-by-side comparison of his team's stats and record. He captioned his post on X (formerly Twitter), "I'm proud of this group and staff/ office looking forward to 2nd half go Cs".

Tatum trainer tweeted Celtics are hard to beat when Tatum’s usage was 33% or better

-          Drew Hanlen posted the Celtics winning % when Tatum gets a 33% usage rate.  This was after a win vs Charolette in which Brown sat out.  The next game, Tatum sat out, Brown had a over 33% usage rate and the Celtics lost and he sucked.

Brown analytically bad.  He talked about it all season.

Poor chemistry with Tatum, Brown, Mazzula.  Only one ball.

-          With Jrue Holiday and Horford it worked.

-          After blowing 3-1 series lead and game 7 at Boston; Brown talks about how great the season was

-          Browns reaction – Didn’t get the respect he wanted from Brad in trade conversations.  “There is something more there.”

-          Brown got in the drivers seat and was not giving it up.  He tactically forced his way out

Why the timing of the trade? Why the poor return?

The return

The return ask was originally VJ Edgecomb, Paul George, 5 first round picks.

The Analytical Case Against Jaylen Brown

1. Volume scorer, not an efficient one
He's putting up 28.7 PPG this year, but his True Shooting is sitting around the 49th percentile leaguewide — dead average for volume scorers, and low for someone who just made his 5th All-Star team. Peers who score at his volume (Devin Booker, Jalen Brunson, Tatum) generally post TS marks well above 55-56%.

2. Shot profile doesn't match a "modern wing"
His three-point rate ranks around the 20th percentile among his peer group — he's not generating efficient looks from three at the volume you'd expect from a max-level wing. That pushes him into more contested pull-ups and mid-range shots, which shows up in the dip: his FG% fell to 47.7% and his 3P% dropped to 34.7% this season.

3. Turnover-prone relative to usage
His turnover metrics grade out around the 42nd percentile. For a guy who's now the clear first option without Tatum, ball security under high usage is a real swing factor analytics tracks closely.

4. Defense doesn't match the reputation
This is the biggest gap between narrative and numbers. Despite being viewed as a plus wing defender, his defensive plus-minus grades (CraftedDPM, DARKO's defensive component) put him in the bottom third of his position group — around the 16th percentile on some models. Rim protection and steal/deflection rates are also below what you'd expect from an "elite two-way" tag.

5. Impact metrics have never loved him — even in his best years
This isn't new. Back during his 2023 All-NBA-caliber peak, Basketball-Reference's BPM had him outside the top 60 players in the league, well behind his box-score reputation. RAPTOR and EPM have shown similar skepticism for years. The models that combine box score data with on/off court impact consistently rate him lower than the raw counting stats suggest.

Here's the peer comparison, pulled straight from CraftedNBA's percentile model (leaguewide, min. 48 min played):

Category

Jaylen Brown

Devin Booker

Donovan Mitchell

Scoring

82-83rd

84th

91st

Efficiency (TS%-based)

48-52nd

56th

77th

Playmaking

64-66th

76th

75th

Defense

14-16th

26th

52nd

Overall impact

87-88th

92nd

98th

The only explanation is the Jaylen Brown market sucked. The Celtics think Paul George is better than we do and have a plan to dump his salary next season.

Why now?

Celtics would not commit to 5 years of Brown at max money

Celtics would not commit to 3 years of Giannis at 35% of cap. They wanted 2 years at 30% of cap

Nick Cattles: Celtics open to making trades but want to surround Tatum with the depth and role players opposed to another start to split shots with.  Interested in Herb Jones and Keldon Johnson.

-          Ownership has a financial mandate.

Moving forward

The new roster

Celtics have 2nd best odds to come out of the east

76ers 3rd. Knicks 1st.

Derrick White                    Payton Pritchard               Mike Conley      

Baylor Scheierman           Hugo Gonzalez                  Ron Harper jr

Paul George                        Sam Hauser                       

Jayson Tatum                     Jordan Walsh                     Chris Cenac Jr

Mitchell Robinson            Neemias Queta                 Luka Garza

Do you buy into Paul George a better fit?

Putting the ball in Tatum’s hands?

Brown had 36% usage rate last year. 28.7 pts, 6.9 rbs, 5.1 asst.  

-          Does Tatum beat that? Is the team better?

-          When Jayson Tatum posts a usage rate of 33% or higher, the Boston Celtics have an overwhelming 89% win rate.

Is the ultimate problem solved? Mazzula ball.

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