How much of your portfolio should you allocate to Bitcoin to maximize your returns without taking on too much risk?
Using the Kelly criterion, Stephen Perrenod, Ph.D., calculates the optimal Bitcoin allocation to be at least 75%.
The Kelly formula helps you determine the optimal size of an investment, balancing the potential for growth with the risk of losing your capital.
By calculating the proportion of your portfolio to invest based on the probability of success and expected returns, the Kelly Criterion allows you to maximize long-term growth while avoiding the trap of overexposure to a single source of risk.
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00:00 - Intro
01:54 - Stephen Perrenod's Background
02:32 - Main Kelly Criterion Explanation
09:04 - Derivation of the Kelly Criterion
10:57 - Bitcoin Allocation Results Using Kelly Criterion
16:22 - Kelly Criterion Applied to Weekly Bitcoin Data
19:16 - Kelly Criterion Equity Curves for Bitcoin (Spoiler: Don’t Trade!)
21:15 - Kelly Criterion Quarterly Bitcoin Holdings Analysis
22:14 - Quarterly Rebalancing Simulation Using Kelly Criterion for Bitcoin
23:19 - What If You Bought $10,000 Worth of Bitcoin at the Start of 2015?
27:04 - Bitcoin Equity Curves for Annual Decisions
28:17 - Continuous Distribution Kelly Formula
29:24 - Smoothed Kelly Criterion for Bitcoin
32:16 - Kelly Criterion Applied to MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Allocation
35:18 - Bitcoin, Gold, or Nvidia?
40:02 - 100% Bitcoin Allocation
41:44 - Bitcoin Replaces Bonds: A Retirement Plan with Bitcoin
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