21st Capital

21st Capital

By 21st CapitalBusinessInvesting
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21st Capital episodes

  • 22 - Best Bitcoin Data: A NEW WEEKLY SHOW - Ep 01

    This is the first episode of the Best Bitcoin Data show, where professional data analysts and quants curate for you the best Bitcoin data, charts, and analyses of the week. In this episode, we cover the Volatility-Adjusted Power Law index and Bitcoin Quantile Regression Channel.
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    Schedule a personalized demo with 21st Capital and let us show you how to secure your Bitcoin for the future:
    https://21stcapital.com/youtube
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    00:00 - Introduction to the Show
    11:02 - Volatility-Adjusted Power Law Index
    31:36 - Quantile Regression Channel
    59:59 - Future Plans
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    https://21stcapital.com/

    1 hr 6 min
  • 21 - Optimal Bitcoin Allocation: Maximizing Returns with Controlled Risk

    How much of your portfolio should you allocate to Bitcoin to maximize your returns without taking on too much risk?
    Using the Kelly criterion, Stephen Perrenod, Ph.D., calculates the optimal Bitcoin allocation to be at least 75%.
    The Kelly formula helps you determine the optimal size of an investment, balancing the potential for growth with the risk of losing your capital.
    By calculating the proportion of your portfolio to invest based on the probability of success and expected returns, the Kelly Criterion allows you to maximize long-term growth while avoiding the trap of overexposure to a single source of risk.
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    Schedule a personalized demo with 21st Capital and let us show you how to secure your Bitcoin for the future:
    https://21stcapital.com/youtube
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    00:00 - Intro
    01:54 - Stephen Perrenod's Background
    02:32 - Main Kelly Criterion Explanation
    09:04 - Derivation of the Kelly Criterion
    10:57 - Bitcoin Allocation Results Using Kelly Criterion
    16:22 - Kelly Criterion Applied to Weekly Bitcoin Data
    19:16 - Kelly Criterion Equity Curves for Bitcoin (Spoiler: Don’t Trade!)
    21:15 - Kelly Criterion Quarterly Bitcoin Holdings Analysis
    22:14 - Quarterly Rebalancing Simulation Using Kelly Criterion for Bitcoin
    23:19 - What If You Bought $10,000 Worth of Bitcoin at the Start of 2015?
    27:04 - Bitcoin Equity Curves for Annual Decisions
    28:17 - Continuous Distribution Kelly Formula
    29:24 - Smoothed Kelly Criterion for Bitcoin
    32:16 - Kelly Criterion Applied to MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Allocation
    35:18 - Bitcoin, Gold, or Nvidia?
    40:02 - 100% Bitcoin Allocation
    41:44 - Bitcoin Replaces Bonds: A Retirement Plan with Bitcoin
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    https://21stcapital.com/

    46 min
  • 20 - Michael Saylor's Bitcoin24: A Deep Dive with Dr. Stephen Perrenod

    Dr. Perrenod offers a detailed critique of Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin models (Bitcoin24), diving into the key insights and potential limitations.

    Dr. Stephen Perrenod is a Harvard and MIT alumnus with a rich background in astrophysics and high-performance computing.
    With expertise ranging from galaxy cluster modeling to cutting-edge AI and Big Data technologies, Dr. Perrenod brings a unique perspective to the conversation.
    Don't miss this fascinating discussion on Bitcoin's future, technological innovations, and financial systems.
    Links:
    Dr. Perrenod’s website: https://darkmatterdarkenergy.com/about
    Saylor’s Bitcoin model on GitHub: https://github.com/bitcoin-model/bitcoin_model/tree/main
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    Schedule a personalized demo with 21st Capital and let us show you how to secure your Bitcoin for the future:
    https://21stcapital.com/youtube
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    00:00 - Intro
    02:11 - Bitcoin Is a Decentralized Supercomputer
    04:57 - Issues With Bitcoin24 Models
    06:21 - Saylor's Bitcoin24 Parameters
    09:15 - Bitcoin Is Power Law, But Bitcoin24 Is Not
    23:05 - Why a Power Law Model for Bitcoin?
    25:41 - Bitcoin Power Law Parameters
    27:52 - Power Law Projection
    29:31 - Applying Occam's Razor to Saylor's Bitcoin24
    32:53 - Conclusion
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    36 min
  • 19 - Michael Saylor's New Bitcoin Models: Are All Models Destroyed? #bitcoin #saylor

    On August 30th, Michael Saylor unveiled a suite of Bitcoin models forecasting its price over the coming decades under bear, base, and bull scenarios.

    Giovanni Santostasi and Sina dive into these models, exploring their assumptions and price predictions.
    Giovanni is the creator of the Bitcoin Power Law theory, which is a powerful tool for modeling and predicting Bitcoin price.
    Tune in to this episode to discover what we found.
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    Schedule a personalized demo with 21st Capital and let us show you how to secure your Bitcoin for the future:
    https://21stcapital.com/youtube
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    00:00 - Intro
    01:12 - Who Is Giovanni Santostasi?
    02:08 - Is Bitcoin Price Modeling Futile?
    02:45 - Michael Saylor: All Models Are Destroyed
    04:21 - Skepticism about Bitcoin Price Modeling
    05:45 - How Can You Tell If a Model Is Good?
    07:49 - Components of Michael Saylor's Bitcoin Models: Bear, Base, Bull
    15:20 - Saylor's Bitcoin Models' Formula
    17:57 - Saylor's Bitcoin Models vs. the Power Law Index
    29:57 - Bitcoin's Performance Been Exponential?
    36:43 - Criticism of Saylor's Bitcoin Models
    42:26 - Bitcoin Is Predictable!
    01:00:10 - What's Wrong with PlanB's Bitcoin Model?
    01:13:00 - THERE IS NO SECOND BEST!
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    https://21stcapital.com/
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    Learn more about Saylor's Bitcoin Models:
    https://github.com/bitcoin-model/bitcoin_model/tree/main

    1 hr 16 min
  • BG#18 - Orange is the new green!

    Marius is a Bitcoin journalist at Cryptoast, one of the leading French crypto media. He also has his own website, adoptblock.com, whose mission is to raise awareness about Bitcoin.

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    Schedule a personalized demo with 21st Capital and let us show you how to secure your Bitcoin for the future:
    https://21stcapital.com/youtube
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    00:00 - intro to pod
    01:57 - Marius's intro
    05:44 - Challenges in Bitcoin adoption by companies
    08:14 - Bitcoin adoption in Iran report
    17:36 - Marius’s journey into Bitcoin
    20:20 - Bitcoin’s energy consumption
    29:27 - Why Bitcoin?
    32:06 - future projects
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    Read Marius's article, The Bitcoin Revolution in Iran:
    https://www.adoptblock.com/bitcoin-revolution-iran-en
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    Follow Marius:
    https://www.adoptblock.com/marius
    https://twitter.com/AaB_Marius

    36 min
  • TECH02 - Non-custodial Wallets (BG#21)

    In the second lecture of TECH course, RK talks about non-custodial wallets, the difference between hard and cold wallets, and the risks and benefits of having a non-custodial wallet.
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    Schedule a personalized demo with 21st Capital and let us show you how to secure your Bitcoin for the future:
    https://21stcapital.com/youtube
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    00:00 - Intro
    01:39 - Private wallet definition
    04:44 - How private wallets work
    17:32 - Types of private wallets
    28:16 - Trade-offs

    33 min
  • ECON02 - Monetary History (BG#19)

    In the second lecture of ECON course, Sina talks about the history of money from livestock to modern coinage.

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    Schedule a personalized demo with 21st Capital and let us show you how to secure your Bitcoin for the future:
    https://21stcapital.com/youtube
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    00:00 - intro
    01:33 - livestock
    02:48 - grains
    04:56 - collectibles
    11:01 - base metals
    15:29 - modern coinage

    38 min
  • TECH01 - Custody Methods for Bitcoin (BG#20)

    This is the first lesson from RK's TECH series.

    In this lecture, he talks about custodian wallets, their risks and their probable benefits.
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    Schedule a personalized demo with 21st Capital and let us show you how to secure your Bitcoin for the future:
    https://21stcapital.com/youtube
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    21 min
  • ECON01 - What Is Money? (BG#18)

    This is the first lesson from Sina's short course on economics.

    In ECON01, he talks about the emergence of money, its evolution throughout history, and the features of good money.

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    Schedule a personalized demo with 21st Capital and let us show you how to secure your Bitcoin for the future:
    https://21stcapital.com/youtube
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    00:00 - Intro

    00:58 - Outline

    02:21 - Caveman Economy

    07:46 - Barter

    18:34 - Emergence of Money

    28:55 - Emergence of Credit

    36:42 - Features of Good Money

    45:49 The Cantillon Effect

    55:54 - Stock to Flow

    01:02:40 - Next Courses Overview

    1 hr 5 min
  • BG17 - Monetary Policy, Inequality & the Sly Fix with Ulric Pattillo

    Ulric Pattillo is a writer and a Bitcoin advocate in the US. In this conversation, we talk about our recent substack article on how monetary policy produces systemic inequality. Here is the full article: https://bitguide.substack.com/p/monetary-policy-systemic-inequality

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    Schedule a personalized demo with 21st Capital and let us show you how to secure your Bitcoin for the future:
    https://21stcapital.com/youtube
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    00:00 - Intro

    01:48 - Ulric's background

    13:00 - The Article

    21:31 - Macroeconomic Mindset

    29:15 - Policy Pendulum Crushing the Little Guy

    35:40 - COVID's Billionaire Boom

    45:00 - Finance Opacity vs. Bitcoin Transparency

    51:20 - Bitcoin Game Theory

    59:00 - Final Remarks

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    Ulric's Twitter: https://twitter.com/kobiduran

    Ulric's Website: https://serulric.com/

    Declaration of Monetary Independence: https://declarationofmonetaryindependence.org/

    1 hr 3 min

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