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Ep. 23 is basically a full Iran panic board. The boys open on the Strait of Hormuz becoming the real story of the war: mines in the water, tankers refusing to run the gauntlet, insurance chaos, oil ripping past $100, and the dawning realization that even if America and Israel own the skies, reopening a mined shipping lane is a totally different problem. Andrew lays out the broader picture: Iranian missiles flying at every American-aligned target in the region, Gulf states getting dragged into the mess, and Trump suddenly looking a lot more exposed than he did after the “easy win” in Venezuela.

From there, they get into the market angles. Joel and Matt lean hard into the idea that this thing is not ending quickly, which makes the longer-dated no ceasefire bets look attractive. They also talk through why the off-ramp feels murky: Iran can’t just eat the humiliation and move on, Israel has every reason to keep pushing, and Trump may not have thought through how ugly the Strait of Hormuz problem could get. There’s also a side thread on southern Lebanon, where Matt makes the case for fading the market’s confidence in a major Israeli ground offensive before March 31.

The back half widens out a bit. They check in on Rubio, whose odds in the Republican race keep rising as JD Vance seems to disappear from view, and they kick around whether Rubio’s foreign-policy profile is a real asset or a liability if Iran turns into a full quagmire. They close by teasing next week’s IPO talk and admitting, once again, that despite their best intentions, Iran has eaten the whole podcast.