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Ep. 26 opens with a rare mix of victory laps and bruised portfolios. Andrew nails the “US troops entering Iran” market after a dramatic pilot rescue mission inside Iranian territory, while the rest of the board is licking wounds from the surprise ceasefire announcement that nuked their long-held no-ceasefire positions. The ceasefire is technically holding—for now—but with immediate violations, a US blockade around Hormuz, and zero trust between parties, the guys debate whether this is real de-escalation or just a pause with better PR.

They pivot back to their favorite indicator: Strait of Hormuz traffic, arguing that even with a ceasefire, mines, insurance risk, and now US enforcement mean shipping flows are nowhere near normal. Andrew doubles down on “no normalization” bets, while Matt zooms out to ask the bigger question—are markets right that this all resolves within months, or are they massively underpricing how messy this could still get?

From there, it’s a broader reflection on negotiation dynamics. Is Trump actually cracking something previous administrations couldn’t—forcing ideological enemies to the table through sheer escalation and threat? Or is this just another temporary patch that unravels the second incentives shift? The crew debates whether a “permanent peace” deal is even plausible in the timeline markets suggest, with most leaning skeptical despite improving sentiment.

They close on macro confusion: oil markets refusing to behave logically despite massive supply disruptions, and a quick check-in on the AI bubble, where absurd pivots (yes, even shoe companies to data centers) collide with very real constraints like compute and energy shortages. The takeaway: nothing is pricing cleanly, and conviction is getting harder—not easier.