Most voters make election decisions based on limited information and fleeting moments of attention, not careful analysis of policies and positions - even for a presidential race with billions spent on campaigning. The disconnect between how political insiders discuss elections versus how typical voters engage with them leads to fundamental misunderstandings about voter behavior and campaign effectiveness. 

Natalie Jackson, political analyst and pollster, shares insights from her work on down-ballot campaigns and her recent National Journal article examining voter engagement. Drawing on focus group research and polling data, she discusses how campaigns must adapt messaging for different districts, why negative partisanship strategies don't always work, and the challenges women face in gaining recognition as polling experts despite often leading the actual research teams. 

Resources 

National Journal https://www.nationaljournal.com/search/?a=Natalie%20Jackson  

Financial Times (FT) chart https://www.ft.com/  

Kaiser Family Foundation polling https://www.kff.org/2024-survey-of-women-voters-dashboard-june-initial-survey/  

Sarah Longwell's focus groups https://www.thebulwark.com/s/thefocusgroup   

YouGov polls https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/50960-how-americans-have-reacted-to-donald-trumps-2024-victory   

AAPC post-election event https://theaapc.org/education-events/2024-post-mortem-event-2/   

FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast https://fivethirtyeight.com/podcasts/  

Our Guest 

Natalie Jackson, PhD, is Vice President at GQR. She has spent nearly two decades developing extensive expertise in survey research, methodology, and political polling. Her research on how people form opinions, as well as on the election polling and forecasting landscape has appeared in peer-reviewed journals and edited volumes, and she has a weekly column on data politics called Leading Indicators at National Journal. 

Prior to joining GQR, she was Director of Research at PRRI and Managing Director of Polling at Just Capital. Earlier in her career, she held senior and management positions at the Marist Institute for Public Opinion and The Huffington Post. She is an active member for the American Association for Public Opinion Research, serves on the council for the National Capitol Area Political Science Association, and co-chairs the Careers Diversity Committee for the American Political Science Association. She is on the editorial boards of Social Science Quarterly and PS: Political Science and Politics. 

Natalie received her PhD in political science from the University of Oklahoma and was a postdoctoral associate at the Duke University Initiative on Survey Methodology. Her BA in political science and history is from West Texas A&M University. She enjoys life in Washington, DC with her cats, but you might also find her hiking in Alaska or the Hudson Valley of New York. 

Your Host 

Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn. 

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