00:00 - Intro
03:35 - Talks about Oilprice.com Article Talking about how they're expecting the price of oil to be over 100 here at least come summertime and through the rest of the year
05:02 - Talks about Oil Prices and Recession
07:42 - Germany Recession to Depression
10:05 - Talks about Coals and LNG
13:51 - Talks about Coal and Natural Gas
16:49 - Talks about East Palestine OHIO
20:03 - Outro
The gang is having fun
3 Podcasters Walk in a Bar Episode #20
Stuart Turley [00:00:13] Hey, everybody, Welcome, today is just a great day because I get to talk to two of some of the best compadres on the planet. You ever had an uncle start up at a Christmas party or a holiday or a 4th of July and he says these three guys walked into a bar.
Stuart Turley [00:00:31] Well, this is three podcasters walk into a bar. And I got two other two podcasters here. I got David Blackmon. I mean, he is a Forbes contributing author. He is a legend and a man about town. How are you David?
David Blackmon [00:00:46] I'm just fabulous, man. Just got back from my cruise in Mexico and ready and raring to go.
Stuart Turley [00:00:52] Oh, hogwash. You look so tired you can't even see.
David Blackmon [00:00:57] I've had 48 hours to recover. Oh, I'm good.
Stuart Turley [00:01:00] No, you're not. All right. Hey, we're going around the corner here to our t. I mean, we're talking RT Trevino. He's a big dog over there at NPR operating and I'm sitting here trying to talk like him. And the operating Camp Oil and Gas company here in the Dallas Fort Worth area. He's the podcast host for The Crude Truth. Welcome RT.
Ray Trevino [00:01:25] Oh, thank you for having me and welcome back to the United States, David. I'm excited to be here.
David Blackmon [00:01:30] I made it through customs. It was great.
Stuart Turley [00:01:33] Body cavity search your other one?
David Blackmon [00:01:35] No, no. That is facial recognition, which made me extremely nervous but anyway.
Ray Trevino [00:01:41] Was it that blew thing or something like that?
David Blackmon [00:01:44] Now, man, they just you don't even you don't even have to fill out a form anymore. You just go through a line and they they take a picture of your face, make sure you're not on the terrorist watch list and you're Area.
Stuart Turley [00:01:56] Wow.
David Blackmon [00:01:56] Nothing to it.
Ray Trevino [00:01:58] Yeah. Yeah, well, nothing to it.
Stuart Turley [00:02:00] No, the border. You know, you got to learn that facial recognition so just to be checked out because we don't want to make any mistakes.
David Blackmon [00:02:09] Believe me, it didn't find that I'm a woman, So we're good there.
Stuart Turley [00:02:12] With that voice. Holy smokes. All right.
Ray Trevino [00:02:16] Oh, okay.
David Blackmon [00:02:17] Nobody's going to say anything.
Ray Trevino [00:02:18] No, I got nothing after that, you know? Does anybody Guess I don't? Did anybody watch Saturday Night Live or. Probably not. You had old Woody Harrelson?
David Blackmon [00:02:28] Woody Harrelson? Yeah.
Ray Trevino [00:02:30] Aint that funny joke at the beginning of the monologue, basically and it was I read a script in 2019, and it was basically a script of we're going to get all the drug cartels to basically force us in our houses and then not let us out unless we take their drugs. And I turned down the script because it's like, that'll never happen. Nobody would ever believe that.
Stuart Turley [00:02:56] Thats so funny, I'll tell you. Did you see the left wing wokers their heads exploded and it was across the country as soon as it started airing when he said and he made those jokes about it, they went nuts. Look He's talking bad about Covid. Boom, boom, boom, boom.
David Blackmon [00:03:19] Yeah.
Ray Trevino [00:03:20] The last I got to watch that, the laughs inside that SNL studio were not they were almost like comfortable laughs like, should we be laughing at. So.
David Blackmon [00:03:31] Yeah. Because they all know it's true.
Ray Trevino [00:03:33] Yeah. Well, you know, I do remember one thing is that on April 20th, 2020, you know, oil went down negative prices and, you know, nobody was asking me for a bailout. But what I'm excited to see is that Oilprice.com had a nice article today talking about how they're expecting the price of oil to be over 100 here at least come summertime and through the rest of the year and I can't disagree with that at all you know.
Ray Trevino [00:04:02] You've got Goldman Sachs that's saying it, and so is the big independent here in Texas, a pioneer, natural resources. And really, when you figure the demand is going up, whether we can talk about China hopefully here in a second, but whether China fully reopens or doesn't reopen, the demand is going up and supply is still not there. You know,.
Ray Trevino [00:04:26] The other day somebody was touting that, you know, oil and gas operators like myself, we've spent on average 50% more money last year, but we only got a 6% increase in production.
Ray Trevino [00:04:37] And the real reason is, well, because the cost went up, steel went up, pipe went up, service companies that hadn't gone up in three years when we hit $100 there for a little while last summer, they went up in price and they haven't gone back down. So and I'm afraid that when we do hit 100 again, are they going to go back up, which will not help out the situation at all?
David Blackmon [00:05:02] Yeah, of course they'll go back up. You know, I mean, that's how it always works. Price, price, commodity price goes up, service costs go up. Steel prices go up. And here's the thing. People better get used to these high prices for gasoline and because crude oil prices for the foreseeable future are going to be pretty elevated.
David Blackmon [00:05:24] Unless and we've talked about this before, the one thing that can cause oil prices to collapse is a major recession.
Ray Trevino [00:05:34] Yeah,.
David Blackmon [00:05:35] And we're starting to see a lot of people on the Democrat side in terms of, quote, economists now finally admitting that we're heading for a recession. And if we do go into a pretty significant recession, then that'll kill off a lot of demand and, you know, prices are going to be likely to fall again.
David Blackmon [00:05:55] But unless that happens, you know, oil prices should be elevated because demand is outstripping supply and and there's no real prospect for major supply growth this year or really in the next few years.
Ray Trevino [00:06:12] So if I may, and I kind of throw a wrench in here real quick is, as these people are starting to admit, that we're headed into recession. Would you see President Biden running for reelection if that's the case? Well, I know that's totally random left left quite out of left field.
David Blackmon [00:06:32] It depends on what whoever's making all the decisions in the Democratic Party want him to do. You know, I mean, he's not running anything. So whoever's really running the country, if they want him to run again, to be the face of all this, tried to do it for another four years, then yeah, it will run. But, you know, I think that man is so frail and it's just hard to imagine him doing this for six more years. It really is. Well, I'm shocked he's lasted this long, to be honest.
Ray Trevino [00:07:05] And the reason I ask is because obviously people are starting to admit we're going into a recession. And look, I know a lot of our listeners are on our side and probably agree with that. It's his policies that have taken us down this path.
Ray Trevino [00:07:22] So if these individuals in the government are starting to say we're headed towards a recession, I'm almost thinking are they basically throwing in the towel with Uncle Joe saying we're headed for recession we need to we need to switch it up. So that's why I run.
Stuart Turley [00:07:39] I think personally that the world is headed for a global recession and I personally think there are many countries and continents that will be in a depression. I think that you're going to see many of the European countries going into a depression, and I think there's going to be a few like Norway that do have access to natural gas not be impacted as much. They do have a lot of energy.
Stuart Turley [00:08:13] Germany, I think, is going to get hammered in the back of the head so hard, their eyeballs are going to pop out. And I think that they truly could be heading to a depression rather than just a recession because they can't afford to make anything because of their energy.
Stuart Turley [00:08:31] There were two articles that just came out, and those articles were saying that it's not the 2022 that we just came through in the winter. It's they're not going to be able to fill in 2023 for next winter and then in 2024, that following winter nearly as easily. So Europe's not out of the woods yet.
David Blackmon [00:08:57] Right. They've been very, very fortunate with the weather this winter and otherwise they'd be in a crisis right now. But they got lucky with this winter the weather has been, you know, fairly warm. But yeah, you're right. I mean, it's hard to see them filling storage the way they were able to do before this past winter.
David Blackmon [00:09:20] And yeah,...
