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30th March: Stocks head lower as Iran situation worsens
The Iran conflict entered a dangerous new phase over the weekend, with Houthi militants joining the fight, Israel striking Tehran, and the US Defense Department preparing for potential weeks of ground operations. The Dow Jones confirmed a correction on Friday — down more than 10% from its February peak — while the S&P 500 fell 1.67% to close its fifth straight losing week, its longest such streak since 2022. Brent crude settled at $112.57 and WTI at $99.64 as the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed, with Iran now drafting legislation to formalise its control and toll collection over the waterway. Traditional portfolio defences have failed: bonds, gold, and crypto have all declined alongside equities in unison for four straight weeks. Private credit is adding to the stress, with Blue Owl and HPS reporting their worst monthly returns since 2022 and redemption gates now the industry norm. For Australia, ASX 200 SPI futures are pointing to a 65-point drop — 0.76% lower — as the Albanese government’s national cabinet convenes at 10am AEDT to discuss fuel rationing measures.
Key Takeaways
01 S&P 500 fell 1.67% for a fifth straight week of losses — its longest losing streak since 2022 — while the Dow confirmed a correction (down 10%+ from its February 10 record close) and the Nasdaq deepened into one.
02 The Iran war entered week five with Houthis launching ballistic missiles at Israel, Iran striking Gulf aluminium producers and a US base in Saudi Arabia, and the US Defense Department preparing for potential weeks of ground operations targeting the Strait of Hormuz.
03 Brent crude settled at $112.57 (+4.22%) and WTI at $99.64 (+5.4%) on Friday — up more than 70% year-to-date for WTI — as the Strait of Hormuz remained blocked and Iran drafted laws to codify toll collection on the waterway.
04 Traditional diversification has broken down: bonds, gold, and crypto have all fallen alongside equities for four straight weeks, with the risk-parity ETF (RPAR) down 8% and Barclays’ Dainton warning markets are underpricing oil shock risks at $110–$130/bbl.
05 Private credit stress deepens: Blue Owl Credit Income Corp lost 0.86% in February (worst since 2022) and HPS Corporate Lending Fund was down 0.3%, as redemption requests surge and asset managers begin marking down portfolios.
06 ASX 200 SPI futures point to a 65-point (-0.76%) open at 8,487 — the AUD hit a two-month low of US68.63¢ — as national cabinet meets at 10am AEDT to sign off on light-touch fuel security measures including work-from-home guidance and free public transport trials.
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By MPC MarketsThe Iran conflict entered a dangerous new phase over the weekend, with Houthi militants joining the fight, Israel striking Tehran, and the US Defense Department preparing for potential weeks of ground operations. The Dow Jones confirmed a correction on Friday — down more than 10% from its February peak — while the S&P 500 fell 1.67% to close its fifth straight losing week, its longest such streak since 2022. Brent crude settled at $112.57 and WTI at $99.64 as the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed, with Iran now drafting legislation to formalise its control and toll collection over the waterway. Traditional portfolio defences have failed: bonds, gold, and crypto have all declined alongside equities in unison for four straight weeks. Private credit is adding to the stress, with Blue Owl and HPS reporting their worst monthly returns since 2022 and redemption gates now the industry norm. For Australia, ASX 200 SPI futures are pointing to a 65-point drop — 0.76% lower — as the Albanese government’s national cabinet convenes at 10am AEDT to discuss fuel rationing measures.
Key Takeaways
01 S&P 500 fell 1.67% for a fifth straight week of losses — its longest losing streak since 2022 — while the Dow confirmed a correction (down 10%+ from its February 10 record close) and the Nasdaq deepened into one.
02 The Iran war entered week five with Houthis launching ballistic missiles at Israel, Iran striking Gulf aluminium producers and a US base in Saudi Arabia, and the US Defense Department preparing for potential weeks of ground operations targeting the Strait of Hormuz.
03 Brent crude settled at $112.57 (+4.22%) and WTI at $99.64 (+5.4%) on Friday — up more than 70% year-to-date for WTI — as the Strait of Hormuz remained blocked and Iran drafted laws to codify toll collection on the waterway.
04 Traditional diversification has broken down: bonds, gold, and crypto have all fallen alongside equities for four straight weeks, with the risk-parity ETF (RPAR) down 8% and Barclays’ Dainton warning markets are underpricing oil shock risks at $110–$130/bbl.
05 Private credit stress deepens: Blue Owl Credit Income Corp lost 0.86% in February (worst since 2022) and HPS Corporate Lending Fund was down 0.3%, as redemption requests surge and asset managers begin marking down portfolios.
06 ASX 200 SPI futures point to a 65-point (-0.76%) open at 8,487 — the AUD hit a two-month low of US68.63¢ — as national cabinet meets at 10am AEDT to sign off on light-touch fuel security measures including work-from-home guidance and free public transport trials.