Dow hits record 52,899 but chip stocks crater. June payrolls: 57k vs 115k expected. Rate hike odds slashed. We cover the jobs miss, what it means for the Fed, Meta's $145B AI capex scramble, oil flattening at pre-war levels, gold surging on dollar weakness, and why 87% of the S&P 500's H1 gains came from chips alone. Plus the 1990s Desert Storm parallel for where inflation goes from here. No show Monday (July 4th) — back Tuesday. Catch Bulls vs Bears this afternoon for the full H1 wrap.

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Book a Portfolio Review: https://www.mpcmarkets.com.au/portfolio-review/Semiconductor stocks were hammered today after reports that OpenAI has dramatically cut inference costs through software optimisations — slashing GPU requirements for large parts of ChatGPT traffic. The SOX Index fell over 6% in its worst session in months, hitting Nvidia, AMD, Intel and chip equipment names hard after one of the strongest quarters on record.In this episode we break down what this means for the AI infrastructure trade, whether hyperscaler capex is at risk of slowing, and how the market is digesting the shift from training-heavy to inference-heavy dynamics. We also cover progress in US-Iran talks in Doha on the Strait of Hormuz and frozen assets, which helped ease oil supply concerns.Plus, Fed’s Kevin Warsh struck a dovish tone on inflation risks at ECB Sintra, while fresh ISM data showed pipeline price pressures cooling sharply. We discuss positioning implications across equities, energy, gold and what to watch as US markets head into the July 4th holiday.

Best quarter in six years and chips stole the show. SOX up 88% for the quarter — its best ever. Micron quadrupled. Intel trebled. And the Mag Seven? Down 4% for the year. The companies spending the money are lagging the companies selling them the shovels.

Gold's had its worst quarter since 2013, down 24% from the January highs. Iran talks resume in Doha but the "back to normal in two weeks" calls from Wall Street feel detached from reality. Samsung and SK Hynix just pledged $1.3 trillion in new chip investment. Nike beat on both lines and still sold off. JOLTS job openings hit a two-year high and rate hike bets are building.

Plus: ASX starts FY27, South32 sells its aluminium business to Alcoa for $8.1bn, and why healthcare might be the rotation play when chip stocks eventually turn. Payrolls land Thursday night with no US market Friday — that Asian open could get spicy.

S&P 500: 7,496 (+0.8%) | Nasdaq: 26,213 (+1.5%) | Dow: record 52,317 | SPI: 8,784

The Dow closed at a record 52,182 as Alphabet debuted in the index and tech staged a sharp rebound from last week's semiconductor selloff. Mark Gardner breaks down whether this is genuine buying or end-of-quarter window dressing — plus why the best quarter for equities since COVID might actually be a warning sign.

Also covered: the Japanese yen at 40-year lows and what that means for equity markets, the ASX outlook with RBA minutes due today, Collins Foods hitting record revenue, early-stage biotech momentum, and a busy week ahead with non-farm payrolls landing on a pre-holiday Thursday.

Key numbers: S&P 500 +1.2% to 7,439 • Nasdaq +2.3% • Dow +0.6% to 52,182 • SOX +87% YTD • Yen 161.94/USD (1986 low) • WTI $70.54 • ASX futures 8,825

Weekly podcast: Bulls vs Bears drops every weekend with Mark, Finn, Kai & JT.

MPC Markets | General commentary, not financial advice.

The chip index dropped 7.9% last week while Iran broke the ceasefire and struck two ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil barely moved. The Fed's Kashkari has swung to a rate hike. And the BIS just warned that sovereign debt, AI overinvestment and leveraged hedge funds are building systemic risk.

Mark covers the chip selloff and what it means for hyperscaler margins, why software stocks at 52-week lows could be a generational buy, the healthcare rotation, and what to watch on the ASX this shortened week — including RBA minutes, tax-loss selling season and U.S. payrolls on Thursday.

New episodes every weekday before the ASX open. Visit mpcmarkets.com.au/podcast for the full written Morning Call.

Micron's blowout AI earnings sent memory stocks surging 16% — but the consequences hit fast. Apple raised prices across MacBooks and iPads by up to $500, Microsoft hiked Xbox pricing, and every Mag Seven name traded lower. The chip boom is feeding the same inflation problem the Fed is already fighting.

KPMG now expects two rate hikes by year-end. May core PCE held at 3.4% YoY, GDP was revised sharply to 2.1%, and oil rebounded after an IRGC attack on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz threatened the fragile US–Iran peace deal. In Australia, employment surprised massively to the upside at +40,300 jobs — ASX futures up 9 points at 8,755.

Covered today: Micron's $22bn in locked-in orders and what it means for hyperscaler margins, Apple and Microsoft passing costs through to consumers, the PCE inflation read and Fed hike outlook, the Hormuz incident and oil dynamics, commodities getting belted on the week, Australian employment and RBA minutes preview, plus the week ahead with non-farm payrolls brought forward for Independence Day.

Daily pre-market analysis from MPC Markets. Subscribe for updates.

Micron Technology crushed Wall Street expectations overnight, reporting Q3 revenue of $41.5 billion (a $6.2 billion beat) with cloud memory up 307% year-on-year and core data centre up 653%. The stock surged ~13% after hours, dragging Nasdaq futures up around 2% and effectively reversing the session's losses. Qualcomm added to the momentum with positive CEO commentary.

In today's Morning Call, Mark Gardner covers:

— Why Micron's result matters for the broader AI trade and whether the rally can continue from here
— Oil hitting its lowest level since before the Iran war as 20 million barrels transit the Strait of Hormuz
— The commodity rout across gold, silver, copper and crude — and where the buying opportunities might be
— U.S. dollar strength and what's driving the move despite weakening consumer discretionary budgets
— Australia's May employment data due today and what it means for the RBA rate path
— Trim mean inflation coming in slightly higher than expected — rate hikes still on the agenda?
— Healthcare sector green shoots: why names like CSL, Telix and Vive are starting to turn
— JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs boosted dividends after passing Fed stress tests
— a2 Milk's positive update and Tourism Holdings' fresh takeover approach

ASX 200 futures pointed ~20 points higher at the close. SPI up around 0.2% to 8,810.

Listen to Bulls vs Bears every Friday for a deeper weekly dive — available at mpcmarkets.com.au/podcast

MPC Markets Morning Call — 24 June 2026: Global Stocks Get Chip-Wrecked

The headline writers got their byline this morning: markets got chip-wrecked. South Korea's KOSPI triggered circuit breakers and suffered its second-worst session in history — down 10% — after a local report claimed SK Hynix is shifting production away from AI memory chips (HBM) and back to cheaper commodity DRAM. Samsung copped the same treatment. Both stocks make up roughly half the index, so it was carnage.

The damage spread fast. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) dropped 8%, Micron fell 13%, and the Nasdaq lost 2.2%. But outside the chip stocks? The market was surprisingly resilient. Microsoft was up. IBM gained 5%. Healthcare and consumer staples found buyers. The S&P 500 only fell 1.29% — not the sea of red you'd expect from that kind of Asian session.

Mark breaks down why the KOSPI is a structurally volatile market — heavy retail options usage, extreme concentration — and why its moves should be read carefully, not reacted to. He also puts the SOX in perspective: even after last night's 8% fall, it's still up 157% over the past 12 months and 80%+ since April. MPC had already reduced its chip exposure earlier in the week — AMD, TSM, Lam Research, and Palantir were all trimmed or sold.

In Australia, CPI for May drops today. The market's expecting headline inflation at 4.3% year-on-year, with the trimmed mean at 0.3% month-on-month. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser also speaks. And Micron reports after the US close tonight — that one matters. A bad number and nobody wants to think about what happens to the SOX.

SpaceX joins the Russell Index on Friday. Bond yields remain stubborn. The US dollar had one of its better weeks in a long time, which is hammering silver, copper, lithium, and uranium. And KMD Brands is doing a 1-for-25 share consolidation while Sonic Healthcare got a Citi downgrade.

In this episode: KOSPI circuit breaker explained · SOX 12-month context · MPC's chip trade trimming · Australia May CPI preview · Micron earnings risk · SpaceX Russell inclusion · AUD under pressure · RBA Deputy Governor Hauser watch

Listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and YouTube. Subscribe at mpcmarkets.com.au.

Wall Street ended mixed on Monday as a wave of AI talent departures punished Alphabet and a post-IPO hangover accelerated SpaceX's three-day rout — while rotation into cyclicals and chip stocks kept the broader market afloat. Mark Gardner breaks down what moved markets overnight and what Australian investors need to watch today.

In this episode:

• Alphabet –5% — Nobel laureate John Jumper (AlphaFold/DeepMind) leaves for Anthropic; co-Gemini architect Noam Shazeer defects to OpenAI. What back-to-back talent exits signal about Google's AI trajectory.
• SpaceX –16% to ~$154 — three days of losses, $600B in market cap erased. Is the $135 IPO price the next stop? Mark's view on where to watch for value.
• AI capex anxiety — Amazon, Meta and Microsoft shed ~$250B in combined market cap overnight. Who's writing the checks vs. who's cashing them.
• Micron +7% — strategic agreement with Anthropic on AI infrastructure. Super Micro Computer +16%. Getty Images soared on an OpenAI licensing deal.
• Lam Research — an MPC recommendation, up 5% overnight. What the team is doing with the position.
• Oil retreats — Brent below $78 as U.S.–Iran peace talks in Switzerland produce a 60-day oil sales waiver. Why the energy sector held firm despite the oil drop — and why Mark is watching Chevron, Conoco and ExxonMobil.
• WiseTech (ASX: WTC) — Morningstar's belated bear call, yesterday's 15% drop, and why MPC thinks a long-term buying opportunity may be forming under new CEO Zubin Appoo.
• USD/JPY at multi-month highs — where's the yen carry trade unwind? Mark's take.
• Alan Greenspan, 1926–2026 — a tribute to the Fed Chair who navigated irrational exuberance, the tech bubble, and the post-Volcker era.
• Day ahead — Wednesday's Australian CPI is the big local event. Micron earnings Thursday. What to watch.

Key levels: S&P 500 7,475 | Nasdaq 26,166 | Brent $77.84 | Gold $4,192 | USD/JPY 161.60 | ASX SPI +0.2% to 8,831

US cash markets were closed Friday for Juneteenth, but global stocks stalled heading into the weekend as US-Iran peace talks opened at Bürgenstock, Switzerland. Mark Gardner breaks down the 14-point memorandum of understanding, what's likely to pass and what isn't, and why crude oil may be the standout risk-reward trade right now — with downside of 5–10% versus upside of 10–25% if negotiations collapse.

This episode covers:

— US-Iran talks at Bürgenstock: Vance, Araghchi, and the 60-day negotiating window
— Why Israel and Lebanon remain the wild card for any lasting deal
— S&P 500 futures down 0.62%, US tech futures down 1%, oil up 2.5% as of recording
— The case for energy as a portfolio hedge at extended US equity levels — Chevron, oil futures, and single-digit PE names
— Fed, ECB, and RBA hawkishness hammering precious metals — gold under pressure
— Australian CPI (Wednesday) and employment data (Thursday) — the numbers the RBA is watching
— Metcash (MTS) full-year earnings today; BHP Jansen potash cost blowout fallout
— Micron earnings Thursday morning — can memory prices justify the Philadelphia Semiconductors rally?
— US core PCE price index, final GDP, and Michigan sentiment later in the week

Mentioned: Software Survivors 2.0 webinar, Bulls vs Bears weekly podcast (Anthropic and OpenAI deep dive with Kai Chen and Jonathan Takadena)

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