MPC Markets Morning Call

The rally broadens as investors abandon chip stocks for a seventh straight session. Mark and Friday Phil cover a session that was green everywhere except semis — Nvidia -1.8%, Dell down ~22% in three days — while gold and silver miners, lithium, healthcare and software led the “great rotation” higher.

Also in today’s call: a hot US PPI print (+1.3% m/m vs +0.6% expected, ~6.3% y/y, hottest since March); the CoreWeave credit scare debunked (the 16% rate only applies to unsecured finance — weighted-average is ~8.3% — and Jensen Huang says rates are easing); why banks marketing Oracle CDS is worth watching; WiseTech +4–5% as Richard White is cleared of insider trading; the KOSPI down ~40% from its June high; and the big earnings run ahead (Tesla, Netflix, Intel, IBM, RTX next week; Google, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon the week after).

New income / fixed coupon notes are now open — precious-metals miners (>13% p.a.), lithium (~16% p.a.) and the “True Blue Chips” CBA/BHP/Wesfarmers/CSL (~11% p.a.). Wholesale investors only.

Free Mosaic subscription (to end of 2026): https://MPCInvest.co/freemosaic

For professional use only. Not financial advice.

Tech stocks took an absolute beating overnight — the SOX fell 4.3%, now 20% off its peak and down for a sixth straight day, with every data-centre name (Nvidia, Intel, AMD, Oracle, Dell) sold off.

Mark Gardner covers a shaky start to US earnings season (Bank of America down ~6% on a surprise impairment, a soft JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley off 2.75%), the defensive rotation into healthcare, Chevron and Exxon at 52-week highs, MPC's exit from its NeoCloud calls, CoreWeave's debt squeeze, a hotter-than-expected CPI pushing rates back up, the oil and diesel story, and why hyperscaler earnings over the next two weeks are the big near-term risk for the AI trade. Rounds out with the SPI, Aussie jobs and the day ahead.

Get the US earnings calendar on Mosaic: https://mpcinvest.co/earningsUSA

Mosaic free through to end of 2026 with all Platinum recommendations: https://mpcinvest.co/freeMosaic

For professional use only. Not financial advice.

Fed’s Williams signals one more hike then done — bond yields dropped 10bps but stocks still slid. We break down: Micron’s 3.6% drop on China’s CXMT chip news (and why it’s an overreaction), JP Morgan’s first earnings miss since 2023 while Goldman crushed it, the lithium bloodbath (PLS -8.6% in a day, -21% in three sessions), growing skepticism around the data center trade after AirTrunk and Firmus, and the RBA hinting at holding rates. Plus US CPI tonight and what to watch from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.

Try Mosaic free through year-end → npcinvest.co/freemosaic

A quiet night with US bonds shut for Columbus Day. Mark Gardner runs through chip stocks sliding, Brent up about 2% on reports of a tanker hit in Hormuz, Meta's new Muse AI model, upgrades for Salesforce and eBay, and Starbucks ruling out Chipotle.

Locally: Maas down 15% after Firmus pulled its listing, uranium, lithium and rare earths getting belted, plus RBA minutes, the NAB survey and the Telstra AGM today. Tonight, US bank earnings kick off, with CPI and PPI later in the week.

US earnings calendar: mpcinvest.co/earnings-usa

Free month of Platinum on Mosaic: https://mosaic.mpcmarkets.com.au/

General information only, not personal advice. MPC Markets is a CAR (001307357) of LeMessurier Securities, AFSL 296877.

Stocks Shrug off Oil and Bonds into 1st Week of Earnings

Wall Street finished Friday within striking distance of all-time highs as investors brace for Q3 bank earnings this week. The S&P 500 rose 0.59%, the Dow gained 0.83% and the Nasdaq added 0.64% — all three logging weekly gains.

Analysts expect roughly 31% year-on-year earnings growth with AI and energy driving two-thirds of the increase. Banks are expected to unveil a quarterly stock-trading haul of nearly US$19 billion — JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup all report this week.

In today’s call: gold and precious metals rallied 1.5–2.5%, the Firmus IPO collapse continues to weigh on Australian AI sentiment, and why midterm election uncertainty could make corporate outlooks unusually cautious this earnings season.

Columbus Day today — US bond markets closed, equities open. SPI futures point to a quiet Monday open.

Free US Earnings Calendar → mpcinvest.co/earningsUSA

US semiconductor stocks were hammered after an FT report pegged OpenAI’s annualised revenue at ~$50 billion, roughly $20 billion below prior estimates. The SOX dropped 3.4%, Brent crude surged 4% past $104 on Strait of Hormuz attacks and Gulf Coast hurricane shut-ins, and Treasuries rallied with the 10-year yield falling 6 bp to 5.22%. ASX 200 futures point to a mildly positive open at 8,715 amid Firmus IPO uncertainty and weak Fortescue shipments.

Key Takeaways:

• OpenAI revenue gap hammers chip stocks — SOX down 3.4%
• Brent crude past $104 on Middle East tensions & hurricane supply disruption
• 10-year yield falls 6 bp after solid 30-year auction
• Fed’s Waller signals more hikes; December odds ease to 69%
• Trump rules out Iran strike before midterms
• ASX futures +19 pts; Firmus IPO & Fortescue in focus

Wall Street snapped a four-session win streak as 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields surged to their highest levels since 2002. Fed minutes revealed all 19 officials backed September's rate hike, with most signalling another by year-end. Brent crude settled near US$100 amid ongoing Hormuz tensions, France's bond crisis deepened with the Franco-German spread at 141bp, and the AI bubble debate intensified. Plus chart updates on Telix, ProMedicus and New Hope, and a preview of US earnings season starting next week.

Wall Street surged to all-time highs overnight — the S&P 500 closed at a record 7,820.85 and the Nasdaq hit 27,599.79 as six of the Magnificent Seven advanced on renewed AI and chip stock enthusiasm. G7 nations agreed to release 100 million barrels of emergency reserves, Constellation Energy jumped 12% on a nuclear deal with Google, and uranium surged 4%. Gold, silver and copper rallied while the Aussie dollar ticked higher. The ASX is set to open flat as the RBA flagged household AI stock exposure as a potential vulnerability. Plus — the US earnings calendar for October is live on Mosaic.

📈 US Earnings Calendar: mpcinvest.co/earningsUSA

The Nasdaq closed at a record high overnight — up 1.05% to 27,477 — even as US 10-year yields hit 5.35%, their highest since 2002. With European bonds under pressure, private credit gating redemptions, and inflation eroding cash, big tech is starting to look like the only safe haven left. We break down BMO's call for 6% on the 30-year, Aramco's warning that global oil stocks are "scarily thin," the divisive Firmus IPO opening on the ASX today, and why coal keeps quietly climbing. Plus a quick look at Russia's plague quarantine in Siberia.

Topics: Nasdaq record, US bond yields at 2002 highs, French bond contagion, Spain snap election, Bessent credibility, Firmus IPO, oil prices, Aramco OSP cut, ASX outlook, MPC diversification strategy.

The US 10-year yield hit 5.34%, the highest since 2002, before reversing after Fed Vice Chair Jefferson signalled patience on further hikes. The S&P 500 recovered to close up 0.2% but the ASX 200 bore the brunt, falling 2.0% to its lowest since June. Brent crude surged 4.3% on a third US carrier deployment to the Middle East, China suspending fuel exports, and Iran warning of a "forceful response." Micron's blowout guidance lifted chips but Broadcom's $42B deal to lease AI chips to Anthropic raised circular-finance concerns. Russia warned it would use its "entire arsenal including nuclear weapons" to defend Kaliningrad. We look at ASX technicals, chart 40X and New Hope, and discuss MPC's multi-asset diversification fund. SPI futures +44 points — bounce expected at the open.