MPC Markets Morning Call

The 10-year yield cracked 5.04% (highest since 2007), Brent surged past $108, and Wall Street fell again ahead of the Fed's first hike in three years. Mark and Kai cover the yield breakout and why the calm after it is unnerving, the oil supply crunch from Saudi Arabia to Libya, Jensen Huang's tone-deaf "no laws needed" push, Bitcoin's sell-off on the Clarity Act block, plus ASX stock spotlights on Telix Pharmaceuticals (FDA approval, technicals flipping green) and New Hope (dividend surprise, coal quietly outperforming). Fed decision 4am AEST Thursday.

Wall Street recovered from sharp early losses but still finished red as the PHLX chip index plunged 5.9% on AI safety fears while software names rallied. The 10-year yield briefly breached 5%, crude holds above $101 on Saudi pipeline shutdowns, and a Fed rate hike is now 92% priced for Wednesday. Mark and Phil break down the chip-to-software rotation, Telix's FDA win on the ASX, Chevron and ConocoPhillips at 52-week highs, and why "pandemonium" awaits if the Fed doesn't hike.

Key topics: semiconductor selloff, AI governance, software rotation, crude oil supply disruption, 10-year yield at 5%, Fed rate hike outlook, ASX Telix Pharmaceuticals, precious metals, Bitcoin, critical minerals strategy update.

Triple Threat: Hike Locked, Pipeline Down, AI Paused — Monday 14 September 2026

Three weekend shocks hit at once. The Fed hike is 87% locked after hot CPI, Saudi Arabia shut the east-west pipeline as Hormuz attacks worsen, and the biggest names in AI — Dario Amodei, Elon Musk and Sam Altman — have all called for slowing down. US 10Y yields nearly breached 5%, diesel hit a record $6.20/gal, and consumer sentiment crashed. Was Friday's rally a head fake? We break it all down.

Subscribe at mpcmarkets.com.au for the free daily Morning Call newsletter.

⚠️ General information only, not personal financial advice. MPC Markets is a CAR of LeMessurier Securities (AFSL 296877).

Higher Oil, Inflation & Yields Sink Stocks — Four straight sessions of losses on Wall Street as WTI crude tops $103, August PPI runs hot at 5.4% Y/Y, and the ECB hikes rates to 2.5%. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.96% with Fed rate hike odds now at 73% ahead of next week's FOMC. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Oracle rallies 6.6% after hours on a Q1 beat. ASX 200 futures point to another weak open after yesterday's 1.2% drop. Plus: Bessent's "I am the house now" moment, Trump's $1.2 trillion dividend proposal, and why every major index except the Nikkei is flashing sell signals on the technicals.

Oil tops $100 as Middle East war escalates | Treasury buyback disappoints | Apple unveils $1,999 foldable iPhone

Brent crude surges above $101 after U.S. strikes destroy five Iranian oil tankers and Tehran retaliates with missile attacks on a Jordanian base and commercial vessels. The oil shock sends the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.85% — its highest since November 2023 — while the Treasury Department's $6 billion buyback falls short of the $10 billion the market expected. The S&P 500 drops 0.5%, the Dow sheds 0.8%, and energy is the only sector in the green. Apple unveils the iPhone Duo, its first foldable smartphone at $1,999, under new CEO John Ternus. Meta jumps 6% on its autonomous AI agent launch. ASX 200 futures point to a 1% drop as all eyes turn to Thursday's PPI and Friday's CPI — with money markets pricing a 60% chance of a September Fed rate hike.

MPC Markets Morning Call — 10 September 2026
mpcmarkets.com.au

Stocks cop a beating as war, oil and higher rates converge. Mark Gardner unpacks a rough overnight session — declining stocks outnumbered advancers 2.5-to-1 post-Labor Day.

Houthi strikes hit Saudi's Jizan refinery, reported explosions near Kharg Island, and Hormuz flows are down roughly half from pre-war levels. Brent is nearing $100/bbl with European diesel approaching $200. GPT-6 Astra hammered software names while semis rallied. Intel jumped 9%. Apple's foldable iPhone lands Wednesday at a $2,200 price tag. Rate hike odds past 60% ahead of CPI/PPI this week. Copper hit a record $14,728/ton at the LME. Plus Bessent's "Operation Twist" buybacks, Trump pressuring the Fed, and what to watch on the ASX today.

General information only — not personal financial advice. AFSL 539 158.

Stocks Drift as Oil Approached $100… Again

A short one with US markets closed for Labor Day. Brent crude is pushing toward $100/bbl and diesel has hit another record — 90% above pre-war levels, feeding directly into inflation across logistics, transport and food. WTI jumped 10% last week. Copper hit an all-time high. Fed hike odds are at 60% for September 16, the ECB hikes Thursday, and the BOJ is a 75% chance two days later. CPI this week is the big one. Caution warranted.

Stocks closed lower on Friday after August nonfarm payrolls smashed expectations at 162,000 — nearly triple consensus — pushing Fed rate hike odds above 60%. Over the weekend, the US–Iran tanker war escalated in the Strait of Hormuz as Washington destroyed three Iranian crude carriers. Mark and Phil break down the jobs data, what it means for the September 16 FOMC meeting, why next Friday's CPI is the decider, and what to expect for the ASX this week with oil surging and US markets closed for Labor Day.

Wall Street surged more than 1% overnight after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he is inclined to hold rates steady later this month if inflation data continues to cool, slashing the probability of a September rate hike from near 70% to a coin flip. The S&P 500 climbed 1.1% to 7,747.71 for its best day in a month, bond yields retreated from multi-year highs, and the yen soared 2% on rising Bank of Japan rate hike expectations. ASX 200 futures are pointing 25 points higher to 9,037 as the Australian dollar hit a fresh four-month high at US72.08¢.

Stocks break a three-day losing streak as Dell surges 16% on record AI server demand and Nvidia gains 3.2% on Hugging Face acquisition talks. Broadcom disappoints after hours. The Japanese yen jumps nearly 1% as BOJ hawks signal outsized rate hikes — Japan's 10-year yield breaks above 3% for the first time in decades, raising carry trade unwind fears. Brent holds near $90 on US-Iran tensions. ADP payrolls soft at 38k vs 47k consensus ahead of Friday's non-farm payrolls. September seasonality weakness looms — we discuss positioning ahead of the expected November midterm uplift.