MPC Markets Morning Call

US public debt crossed $40 trillion for the first time and Treasury Secretary Bessent responded with his second market intervention this month — doubling long-bond buybacks to calm a brutal sell-off that pushed the 30-year yield to its highest since 2007. Mark and Philip unpack why the US is effectively inflating its way out of trouble, what it means for gold (which surged past $4,500) and Bitcoin (up 6.5%), and whether the Fed's hawkish minutes change anything with rate-hike odds already fading.

On the corporate front, Moderna posted its best day in history — up 177% — on a breakthrough cancer vaccine result with Merck. ASX reporting season delivered a 12% pop for Stockland on data centre news, while WiseTech copped a 10% hit after an ACCC search warrant. Today's big names: Goodman Group, Fortescue, Northern Star, and Brambles.

Recorded live 06:00 AEST, Thursday 20 August 2026.

The global bond rout finally caught Wall Street's attention — the Nasdaq dropped 1.3% as semis plunged 5%, with the U.S. 30-year yield hitting 5.33% (highest since 2007). Mark and Phil unpack the bond selloff spreading across Japan, Germany, the UK and France, and why Google's new 7%+ kangaroo bond might be a better bet than Treasuries.

On the ASX, earnings dominated: CSL stopped the bleeding, BHP lifted its dividend, Judo Bank surged to $1.15, and ProMedicus took investors on a wild $40 ride. Today's slate includes Evolution Mining, Santos, Breville, and Whitehaven Coal.

Plus: oil near $92 as the Hormuz standoff drags on, the diesel crack spread above $100/barrel for the first time, and details on the upcoming "Next Phase of AI" webinar and Mark's new Livewire article.

Register for the webinar: mpcinvest.co/webinars
Website: mpcmarkets.com.au
General information only — not financial advice.

Stocks slid overnight as the US-Iran truce expired without a deal — Trump rejected any extension and threatened Oman over Hormuz. Brent crude topped $90, 30-year Treasury yields hit their highest since 2007, and Anthropic's revenue run rate surged to $65 billion ahead of its IPO.

On the ASX, JB Hi-Fi plunged 10% on weak consumer spending. Today we break down BHP's 57% dividend increase, Hub24's forecast beat, CSL's outlook, Judo Capital's turnaround, and Brookfield's $4.1 billion tilt at Reliance Worldwide. Plus — Google issues a $5 billion kangaroo bond, and why critical minerals look compelling here.

AI webinar next Tuesday 12:30pm — register at mpcinvest.co/webinars

Wall Street drifted lower on Friday after retail sales posted their biggest drop in over a year and consumer sentiment slumped — but the S&P 500 still notched a third straight weekly gain as cooling inflation pushed Fed rate hike odds down to 33%. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near standstill, Brent crude is up almost 6% for the week, and 85% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings estimates this season. On the ASX, earnings season shifts into high gear with JB Hi-Fi and BlueScope today, then BHP, CSL and Cochlear later in the week. Plus: why rare earths and critical minerals could be the forgotten thematic of 2026.

mpcmarkets.com.au/podcast

S&P 500 hits a record close at 7,799 after soft PPI data slashes September rate-hike odds to 34%. Mark and Phil unpack the contradiction of "cooling" inflation at 4.7%, the highest 30-year bond auction since 2001, and why the US dollar might just be "a meme coin." Cisco drops 8% despite unprecedented AI demand, oil snaps a six-day rally on a monster crude build, and Iran insists it controls the Strait — regardless of what Trump says. Plus: ASX earnings highlights including ASX Ltd's surprise 9% jump, the software survivors strategy averaging +50%, and a sneak peek at MPC's Phase 2 AI enablement investment launching in the coming weeks.

July CPI came in line — core at 2.5% y/y, the slowest since March 2021 — pushing September Fed hold odds to 62%. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to within reach of its all-time high as AI infrastructure names dominated: CoreWeave +19% on a $104bn backlog, Super Micro +19% on strong FY27 guidance, Nebius +34% on a 514% jump in AI cloud sales. The Strait of Hormuz stalemate deepened as Iran signalled an "offensive doctrine," oil briefly touched $90, and gold hit a two-month high above $4,400/oz. A 10-year Treasury auction priced at the highest yield since 2007 while the U.S. budget deficit blew out to $1.8 trillion through July. On the ASX, CBA beat but slipped, Seek was crushed, and a heavy earnings day awaits with Telstra, IAG, Origin Energy, Transurban and more.

Key topics: July CPI & Fed rate path | CoreWeave, Nebius & AI infrastructure earnings | Strait of Hormuz & Iran's military shift | US budget deficit approaching $40 trillion | ASX earnings: CBA, Seek, Suncorp recap + today's slate | S&P 500 valuations ex-AI gains | Critical minerals thematic preview

Wall Street pulled back overnight as Hormuz tensions persisted and traders held fire ahead of Wednesday's US CPI report. Mark Gardner and Phil Deloughery unpack the overnight session — why breadth stayed positive despite index weakness, Iran's latest Hormuz stance, oil grinding toward $90, and Super Micro's stunning after-hours guidance. On the ASX, they preview today's major earnings slate led by CBA (the world's most expensive bank), recap yesterday's movers including Life360's 20% drop and Helia's buyback-fuelled rally, and discuss Inghams expanding bird flu lockdowns to all states. Plus: why coal stocks are quietly outperforming, the data centre-as-a-service theme powering CoreWeave and potentially Megaport, and what to watch in CPI tonight.

Wall Street ended flat as a 5% oil surge on Iran's Hormuz standoff offset record earnings momentum. Nvidia confirmed a $500B AI infrastructure deal with six Wall Street giants. Intel fell 4% on a $15B stock offering and Jefferies downgraded Apple.

Mark Gardner is joined by Phil DeLoughery for a new ASX-focused segment — covering the Westpac mortgage application slump, the chips-to-software rotation, and today's key reporters (Life360, Coronado, Helia, SGH). All eyes on the RBA rate decision at 2:30pm AEST, US CPI Wednesday, and CBA earnings tomorrow.

S&P 500: 7,753 (-0.06%) | Brent: $87.67 (+4.9%) | Gold: $4,357 | ASX Futures: 9,178

Iran's back — Houthis launch a large-scale attack on Saudi-backed forces, Iranian negotiators mock Trump's diplomacy, and oil jumps 4%. Eight of eleven S&P sectors lower, Dow off 0.9%. But the after-hours action tells a different story: Atlassian rockets 35% on a huge earnings beat, Cloudflare and Twilio beat and raise, and the SaaSpocalypse trade is unwinding fast. We break down which software names have real moats, what the IGV recovery looks like, and where the opportunities are on the ASX as earnings season kicks off next week. Plus James Hardie +7%, Nick Scali +31% profit, and why we want to see inflation data before going hard on gold.

The Dow hit a fresh record but the Nasdaq slid 0.8% on a rotation out of mega-cap tech — Alphabet fell 4% on Jeff Dean's AI departure, AMD dropped 7%, and SpaceX tumbled 14% ahead of tomorrow's massive lockup expiry. Gold surged 4.2% to a record US$4,248/oz. Mark covers the overnight action, why ASX earnings season stats say patience beats prediction, REA and AMP results, signs of life in critical minerals, and the MPC Income Series fixed coupon notes closing this week. SPI futures point to a flat open at 9,143.

Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLonxssa1GsVJ1aUFFE0Nc4IMGmJd3kFaw