MPC Markets Morning Call

Wall Street staged a solid comeback on Tuesday as dip buyers piled into battered semiconductor shares, lifting the Nasdaq 1.9% and the S&P 500 0.9% to 7,509. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ripped 5.2% higher in its biggest daily gain in a month, with Micron up 12.2% and AMD up 8.1%, as hedge funds that had slashed long positions scrambled to rebuild ahead of mega-cap earnings. But the rally played out against a darkening geopolitical backdrop: Brent crude topped $91 a barrel after Houthi militants threatened to blockade Saudi Red Sea ports, oil tankers began u-turning, and the US completed a tenth straight day of strikes against Iran. Trump played down the prospect of talks, vowing to hit Iranian nuclear sites. Gold surged to $4,085 an ounce. ASX 200 futures point to a modest gain of 21 points to 8,763.

The S&P 500 rose 0.9% to 7,509.20, the Nasdaq added 1.9%, and the Dow gained 0.7% to 52,224.64 as nine of eleven sectors advanced, led by a 2.35% rally in information technology.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 5.2% — its biggest single-day gain in a month — with Micron up 12.2%, SanDisk up 14.3%, and Western Digital up 12.5% as hedge funds scrambled to rebuild positions ahead of earnings.

Brent crude jumped 2.4% to $91.35 a barrel after Houthi militants threatened a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, forcing oil tankers to u-turn in the Red Sea and choking a key workaround for Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

The US completed a tenth straight day of strikes against Iran, with Trump playing down the prospect of talks and vowing to hit suspected nuclear sites, while Iran threatened a “powerful strike” in retaliation.

3M surged 7.3% after lifting its full-year profit forecast, GM rose nearly 5% on a raised outlook, while Danaher sank 11% after cutting its core revenue growth guidance.

China’s Moonshot AI is preparing to raise capital at up to $50 billion ahead of a Hong Kong IPO, after its 2.8 trillion-parameter Kimi K3 model drove daily revenue up sixfold.

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Stocks down small despite the Iran war widening sharply — tenth straight day of US strikes, three soldiers dead, Houthis threatening a Saudi Red Sea blockade, and Hormuz traffic at a trickle. Brent crude hit $90 before pulling back. AMD jumped on a Microsoft Azure AI deal, China's Moonshot Kimi K3 is now the world's third-ranked AI model, and Michael Burry covered half his Oracle short at 52-week lows. SpaceX set August 4 for its maiden earnings. New UK PM, new Chancellor, gilt yields back above 5%. Big earnings week ahead with Alphabet and Tesla, then Meta, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon next week. The capex question looms large.

mpcmarkets.com.au/podcast | mosaic.mpcmarkets.com.au

Buy the Dip: https://mpcinvest.co/BuytheDipChina's Moonshot AI drops its Kimi K3 — a 2.8 trillion parameter model already beating top US large language models — and markets aren't taking it well. The SOX semiconductor index hit bear market territory (down 21-22% from its high), triple-leveraged semiconductor ETFs have lost more than half their value since June, and FINRA margin debt has surged from $1T to $1.4T in six months. That leverage could snowball.Meanwhile, US-Iran tensions are escalating sharply — two US soldiers killed over the weekend, oil shipping traffic near zero, US reserves at 40-year lows, and Brent crude up ~3% on the open. Not a great cocktail for risk assets.In this episode Mark Gardner covers:– Why the Kimi K3 model matters and what it signals about China closing the AI gap– Leveraged ETF and margin debt warning signs– US-Iran escalation, oil reserves, and the crude price outlook– Gold, silver, lithium, and uranium positioning– Earnings week preview: Alphabet, Tesla, Intel, RTX, Freeport-McMoRan, Eli Lilly– Australian employment data and flash PMIs– The MPC "Buy the Dip" S&P 500 strategy for volatile markets🎧 Subscribe to Bulls vs Bears: mpcmarkets.com.au/podcast📈 Buy the Dip strategy: mpcinvest.co/bythedip#markets #AI #semiconductors #oil #investing #morningcall #mpcmarkets

TSMC posted a 77% profit jump, beat on every line, raised CapEx to $60–64 billion — and the stock fell 2.3%. That tells you everything about where sentiment sits right now. The SOX index cratered 4%, Micron dropped 8%, AMD lost 3%, and the NASDAQ slid 1.5% for the session. Netflix didn't help either, down ~10% after hours on soft Q3 guidance and a move to reduce reporting transparency.

Meanwhile, the U.S. launched a fifth consecutive night of strikes on Iran. Tehran has told the Houthis to stand ready to close the Red Sea if Washington hits power infrastructure — putting both Middle East oil choke points at risk simultaneously. Oil barely moved. That disconnect won't last.

Dallas Fed's Logan called for "modestly higher" rates. Retail sales came in at +0.2%. Jobless claims fell to 208k. The economy's fine. The Fed isn't cutting.

Plus: ASX outlook, Coles walking from Greencross, BHP strike action, and what to watch next week when Alphabet, Tesla, and Eli Lilly report.

Hosted by Mark Gardner | mpcmarkets.com.au

PPI dropped to 5.5%. The target's 2%. The market's partying like inflation's fixed — it isn't. Fifth day of US strikes on Iran, Hormuz still closed, crude grinding higher. All that inflation relief is about to unwind. Hot money flipping between chips and hyperscalers daily. Margin lending up $400bn with zero downside protection. Copper the real story — Rio doubled earnings growth, BHP reports today. Plus: why the MOU might have been a 60-day executive powers reset, and why a September government shutdown is near-certain.

CPI dropped to 3.5% and stocks bounced, but we think the celebration is premature — it's still well above target and mostly driven by oil prices rolling back. Bank earnings were a mixed bag: Goldman Sachs up 9% on record trading, JP Morgan posted record profit, but Citi fell 5%. We break down why the trading desks are carrying these numbers and what it means for the sector.

The bigger story: retail margin lending has ballooned to $1.4 trillion, fund managers have almost no cash to buy a dip, and put volumes are at the floor. We explain why that setup makes us short-term cautious and what we're doing about it for clients — including a structured investment that caps downside while keeping upside exposure through a look-back entry mechanism.

Plus: gold and copper bouncing, crude pulling back, TSMC guidance tomorrow, and why the ASX should have a decent day off the back of bank earnings and commodity strength.

Oil's back at $80 and the Iran war is officially back on. Trump reimposed the Hormuz blockade and demanded a 20% toll on all shipping. Chip stocks got hammered after SK Hynix plunged 15% in Seoul and the KOSPI hit another circuit breaker. The S&P 500 fell 0.8%, Nasdaq dropped 1.6%.

Fed Governor Waller says another hot inflation print is "signal, not noise" — markets now price 50-50 odds of a July hike. US CPI tonight. All five major US banks report today.

We cover the Hormuz shipping collapse, copper's quiet grind higher, Europe's jet fuel crunch, gold under pressure, and portfolio positioning at elevated levels.

The US-Iran ceasefire is dead. Four days of strikes, 300 Iranian targets, and Tehran has closed the Strait of Hormuz until further notice. Trump says it's open — the satellite data says otherwise. Oil up 3%, ASX futures down half a percent.

Meta surged 6% on an AI compute upgrade. SK Hynix debuted with the largest-ever foreign IPO on the Nasdaq at $26.5B. Netflix slipped on subscriber engagement concerns.

Mark flags the risks stacking up: record margin debt, fund managers with no dry powder, near-record-low put/call skew, and hyperscaler CapEx inflation heading into earnings. None fatal alone — together they're worth watching. Full detail in our Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy episode.

Week ahead: US bank earnings (JPM, BofA, Goldman, Citi), TSMC, BHP ops review, Netflix, CPI Tuesday. Plus Buy the Dip closing mid next week — details at https://mpcinvest.co/BuytheDip

Chip stocks powered Wall Street higher as investors brushed aside U.S.–Iran strikes. S&P 500 +0.8% to 7,541.83, Nasdaq +1.3%. SK Hynix raised $26.5B in the largest foreign IPO in U.S. history. Meta up 4.7% on AI chip production plans, Muse Spark 1.1 launch, and cloud business exploration. Crude fell ~2% despite 170 U.S. strikes on Iranian targets after Trump said Iran called wanting a deal. Leverage in equity markets hitting alarming levels. Fed's Warsh named five task forces with serious firepower to overhaul how the central bank operates. Week ahead: CPI Tuesday, PPI Wednesday, big bank earnings kick off with JPMorgan and BofA, TSMC Thursday. Bulls vs Bears podcast out tonight ~6pm.

Trump declared the Iran ceasefire "over" at NATO, launching a second day of strikes as markets closed. Oil surged past $80 before settling at $78.55. The S&P dipped 0.3% while chip stocks bounced. Fed minutes showed a split committee on rate hikes under new chair Warsh. We break down the Iran escalation, oil dynamics, Hormuz traffic, Nvidia's China chip deal, the IMF growth downgrade, bond yield spikes, earnings season risks, and why portfolio hedging matters right now.