MPC Markets Morning Call

FOMO in full flow. The S&P 500 and Dow surged to record highs overnight as AI panic buying and Hormuz deal hopes drove one of the most impressive rallies we've seen — the Nasdaq up nearly 9% in five sessions.

Mark breaks down the key moves: Palantir rocketing 30% on "otherworldly" AI demand, Caterpillar's first-ever $20 billion revenue quarter, and what the Situational Awareness hedge fund unwind means for the AI trade. After the bell, SpaceX beat revenue estimates in its first post-IPO quarter but fell on massive AI capex, while AMD slid despite beating on top and bottom lines.

Oil got belted again on Hormuz deal hopes after Treasury Secretary Bessent said a deal could come "today or tomorrow." Platinum surged 7%, and uranium and lithium names are starting to look cheap off super low bases.

Plus: the ASX earnings calendar is live at mpcinvest.co/ASX-earnings, and Mark walks through MPC's fixed coupon income notes paying 10-13% on blue chip ASX names.

Key figures:

S&P 500: +1.8% to 7,735 (record) | Dow: +1.7% to 54,086 (record) | Nasdaq: +2.6% | Brent: -5.6% to $79.11 | Gold: +1% to $4,132 | ASX futures: +41 pts to 9,131

Links:

ASX Earnings Calendar — mpcinvest.co/ASX-earnings

Income Notes — mpcmarkets.com.au/income

Portfolio Review — mpcmarkets.com.au/portfolio-review

General commentary only. Not personal financial advice.

Dow hits a record, oil slides 5%, and Trump calls talks Iran's "last chance." Wall Street kicked off August with a broad rally — S&P 500 +1.5%, Nasdaq +2.1% — driven by tech strength, a blockbuster earnings season, and hope for a diplomatic breakthrough on the Strait of Hormuz. Amazon topped $3 trillion in market cap, Palantir raised guidance after 93% revenue growth, and Boeing got FAA sign-off on the 737 MAX-7. In FX, Japan spent roughly $100 billion in two days defending the yen alongside the US Treasury. We cover the full overnight wrap and look ahead to SpaceX's first public earnings, JOLTS data, and Friday's nonfarm payrolls.

Amazon's 15% surge on blockbuster AWS results revived the AI trade on Friday, while Situational Awareness — the hedge fund run by a former OpenAI researcher — blew up on leveraged AI bets and sold to Citadel. The SOX fell 20% in July, its worst month since 2008. Coordinated US–Japan yen intervention saw both countries buying yen for the first time in nearly 30 years. Trump called off the Iran strike over the weekend, sending oil down 6%, but hedge funds remain at their most bullish on WTI since mid-June. This week: SpaceX's first earnings as a public company, a massive share unlock, US payrolls, and the start of ASX reporting season.

Microsoft's 15.5% surge reignited the AI trade overnight, adding ~$450 billion in market cap — the largest single-day gain for any company on record. Chip stocks posted their biggest advance since April 2025, with SOX +8.2%, Micron +17%, and the Nasdaq 100 up 3.4%. After hours, Amazon rallied 9% on a monster AWS beat while Apple fell 5% on China and services misses. We cover US GDP (slowed to 1.5% but domestic demand surging), the yen intervention, 30-year yields at 19-year highs, and the Iran war heating up again with both straits effectively closed. ASX futures point to a strong open. Day ahead: BoJ, China PMIs, Exxon & Chevron earnings. Next week: RBA, SpaceX, and payrolls.

After the bell: Amazon +9% on an AWS beat ($42.2B revenue, +37% YoY), but Apple fell 5% on weak China and services numbers — Tim Cook's final earnings call as CEO. Meta dropped 8% on concerns about spending across too many competitive fronts.

Also covered:

• US GDP slowed to 1.5% in Q2 but domestic demand surged 3.9%
• Yen jumped ~2.5% on suspected Japanese intervention
• 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.24% — highest since the mid-2000s
• Iran war: fresh IRGC strikes, both straits effectively closed, diesel creeping back toward $3.50/L in Sydney
• ASX 200 futures +99 points (+1.1%) to 9,010

Day ahead: Bank of Japan, China PMIs, Euro zone inflation flash, Exxon & Chevron earnings. Next week: RBA rate decision, SpaceX earnings + largest IPO escrow release in history, Non-Farm Payrolls Friday.

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The Fed held rates but three officials dissented for a hike, and 30-year yields surged to 2007 highs as the bond market questions the central bank's inflation commitment. Meta got smashed 8% on a rare EPS miss while Microsoft rallied on a standout Azure cloud beat. The Nasdaq 100 entered correction territory, the SOX chip index posted its worst month in 30 years, and South Korea triggered circuit breakers again. The Iran war reignited overnight with a surprise missile attack, Trump promised retaliation, and oil surged 7-8% with Hormuz still shut. We cover the full earnings wrap including Starbucks, Fortinet, Lam Research, Qualcomm, Teladoc and Carvana, plus the ASX outlook with SPI futures down 51 points ahead of RBA's Sarah Hunter, building approvals and tonight's Bank of England decision.

For professional use only. Not financial advice.

Stock Exposure Broadens as AI and Chips Hit | 29 July 2026

The great rotation is accelerating. The Dow surged 1% and the S&P 500 rose on strong earnings, but semiconductors got hammered — the SOX index dropped 4.5%, South Korea's KOSPI plunged 11%, and Nvidia's credit default swap hit a record 85bps on circular financing fears worth $750 billion. Oil posted its worst three-day stretch since 2020 before bouncing 5% after hours on fresh Middle East attacks. A 7.1-magnitude earthquake struck Kumamoto — the heart of Japan's chip industry — raising supply chain watch alerts. We break down why margin debt at $1.5 trillion is the real risk nobody's talking about, what to watch in tonight's Fed decision and Microsoft/Meta earnings, and why today's Australian CPI print matters for the RBA. Plus: Boeing's cash flow turnaround, Coca-Cola's World Cup quarter, and the last day to access Buy the Dip.

General advice only. Not financial advice. MPC Markets Pty Ltd.

Nvidia fell 5% as $750B+ in AI deals raised circular financing concerns, ASML sank 8.3% on Chinese DUV lithography reports, and oil plunged 8.4% on the US-Iran strike pause. Mark breaks down the semiconductor selloff, China's chip breakthrough with CXMT's explosive IPO, why peak opinion dispersion may signal a turning point, and what's ahead with the RBA decision, FOMC, and megacap earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon. Plus: last call on Buy the Dip closing Thursday.

Stocks Fall Friday, But Open Higher Monday on US/Iran Hopes — MPC Markets Morning Call, 27 July 2026

Wall Street's second straight weekly loss met three headwinds at once: Brent crude above $100 on Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, Alphabet's $205B capex guidance triggering the worst Mag Seven selloff since April 2025, and Trump's new tariffs on 60 economies. But Monday opens with cautious optimism — the US paused airstrikes on Iran after 13 consecutive nights, with Tehran signalling a reciprocal halt.

Mark covers the chip stock carnage (SOX's worst month since June 2022), why Intel fell 8% despite beating earnings, and how Apple's lean-capex strategy is being rewarded while the other hyperscalers burn cash. Plus: 30-year mortgage rates at 11-month highs, European gas up 40% in July, and the pivotal week ahead with the Fed, RBA, BoJ, BoE, and mega-cap earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple all landing mid-week.

General advice only. Visit mpcmarkets.com.au for more.

Investors finally woke up to the risks we've been warning about. The Nasdaq fell 2.2% as Alphabet reported its first-ever negative free cash flow and Tesla dropped 14% on weak margins. Brent crude topped $100 after Houthi strikes on Saudi tankers closed the Bab el-Mandeb strait, sending yields to 18-month highs and Fed hike odds surging to 35%. Trump announced new forced-labour tariffs — Australia copping 12.5%. Intel was the lone bright spot, surging 9% after hours on a data centre beat, while Lockheed Martin (+10.5%) and RTX (+7.3%) rallied on raised guidance. We break down what it all means for ASX investors and why this is the moment to be managing your risk, not ignoring it. Plus — tune in to Bulls vs Bears EP129 this afternoon: Hyperscalers or Hyperspenders.

https://mpcinvest.co/BuytheDip

Risks Stack Up: Google Capex Raises Concerns | 23 July 2026

Google raised capex to $205B and reported its first negative free cash flow quarter — shares down 5% after hours. Tesla missed earnings. Oil's up 10% in five days with Brent past $95 after Houthis attacked Saudi tankers in the Red Sea. Two shipping straits now compromised. Margin lending at records, fund managers low on cash. We break down why portfolio risk management has never been more important — and what to watch as Meta, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon report next week.

Free portfolio reviews: mpcmarkets.com.au | Buy the Dip: mpcmarkets.com.au