MPC Markets Morning Call

MPC Morning Call — 2 September | Oil Spike, September Seasonality & the Stagflation QuestionJonathan Tacadena and Phil step in to run the Morning Call with Mark Gardner on Father's Day duties.Spring kicks off with a risk-off tone across global markets after an overnight oil price spike driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East. The Dow dropped around 400 points, most of the Mag 7 finished in the red, and bond yields surged on renewed inflation fears.In this episode:— Why September is historically the worst-performing month for the S&P 500 (and what that means heading into this one)— Oil's overnight spike, the Iran–US tanker standoff, and what it signals for inflation— Bond yields creeping higher and the growing probability of another Fed rate hike— The Fed's Jackson Hole messaging: "We still have work to do" to get back to 2%— Stagflation risk — what the 1970s oil crisis tells us about where we might be heading— The K-shaped economy: Mag 7 raising billions at tight spreads while the rest of the economy struggles— AI data centre build-out: $600 billion allocated this year, $2.3 trillion still planned— Shipping companies and midstream oil producers quietly hitting record highs— Australia: GDP data due at 11:30, ASX futures pointing to a soft open, coal stocks (New Hope) looking ready to break out— Why today looks like a "sell the rallies" kind of session📌 Watch our "Beyond Data Centres" webinar on demand — finding the next NVIDIA in the AI infrastructure build-out.About MPC MarketsMPC Markets is an Australian financial markets research and advisory firm. The Morning Call is our daily live market briefing — fast, frank, and designed for active investors.🔔 Subscribe for daily market updates🎧 Listen to the Bulls vs Bears podcast for our weekly deep diveGeneral information only. Not personal financial advice. AFSL 296877 via LeMessurier Securities.

Wall Street edged lower in quiet Labor Day eve trade as US–Iran strikes resumed around the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil up ~3.5% and bond yields to multi-year highs globally. Markets now price a 64% chance of a September Fed rate hike after Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech. Energy and cybersecurity names held up but the broader tape was red. We cover the oil breakout setup, global bond selloff, what to watch on the ASX today, and the big data week ahead — Aussie GDP Wednesday, US payrolls Friday. Plus: our latest Fixed Coupon Note (Northern Star, Fortescue, Harvey Norman) closes in 24 hours.

Portfolio review: mpcmarkets.com.au | AI webinar: mpcinvest.com/webinars

Fed Chair Warsh rattled markets with a hawkish Jackson Hole debut, sending two-year yields surging 12 basis points and rate-hike odds above 50% for September. The S&P 500 fell 0.25%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.52%, and the Russell slipped 1.4% as chip stocks led the sell-off — Nvidia down 4.5% despite a blowout quarter.

Mark and Philip cover Warsh's "firm and fixed" stance on the 2% target and whether the Fed will actually follow through, the gold and silver sell-off as the Debasement Trade unwinds, the U.S. strike on Iranian launchers at Larak Island with Hormuz still closed, and what it all means for the ASX with SPI futures pointing 36 points lower at 9,009.

Plus: ASX earnings movers including Wilson Asset Management's big drop, MPC's income series paying 13–15%, and the week ahead with Broadcom earnings and Friday's payrolls report.

Nvidia delivered a blockbuster — $92B in quarterly revenue (+106% Y/Y) and 70% forward growth guidance — adding $440B in market cap and carrying Wall Street higher while every other sector fell. Salesforce surged 23% on its Anthropic "Claudeforce" partnership and CrowdStrike jumped 20%, giving the software ETF its best day since April 2025. But the gap between U.S. and Aussie tech is now 40% wide.

Meanwhile, core PCE inflation held at 3.3% — well above target — keeping rate hike talk alive ahead of Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote. Oil climbed 2% as Iran diplomacy stalled, gold held above $4,600, and Bitcoin reclaimed $80,000.

On the ASX: futures +0.2% to 9,004. Harvey Norman, Dicker Data, Virgin Australia and Cobram Estate report today. Plus — our precious metals strategies are returning 200%+ per annum.

Join Mark, Philip, Kai Chen & Jonathan for Bulls vs Bears this afternoon.

Nvidia's Q2 blowout ($96.2B revenue, +106% Y/Y) and a massive 2M GPU deal with AWS couldn't stop the stock slipping ~2% after hours. But the bigger story overnight was the SaaS resurgence — Salesforce +12%, CrowdStrike +12%, Okta +17% — as quality software names with a moat proved the SaaS-pocalypse narrative wrong. July PCE inflation came in hot at 3.7%, keeping the Fed on hold ahead of Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote. Plus: ASX earnings wrap including WiseTech, Woolworths, and Nine Entertainment, oil falling on Hormuz ceasefire hopes, and record copper at $6.75/lb. Mark and Phil break it all down.

This communication is general in nature and does not constitute financial advice.

A quiet overnight session but plenty to unpack. Wall Street edged up as tech bounced ahead of Nvidia's earnings, oil plunged 6% on Strait of Hormuz reopening hopes, and US bond yields posted their biggest drop in two months. Mark and Phil recap the session, dig into yesterday's ASX earnings — Coles' standout result, Monadelphous' 12% sell-off despite record numbers, and Woodside's pivot back to shareholder value — and look ahead to today's packed calendar: Australian CPI at 11:30, Woolworths and WiseTech earnings, and tonight's blockbuster Nvidia report and US core PCE print. Plus: BHP hits a record high, OpenAI claims its new chip beats Nvidia, and the Target blackface costume controversy.

Stocks mixed overnight — chip selloff drags the Nasdaq while the Dow holds on. US-Canada trade talks collapse with 50% auto tariffs threatened from January 2027, Nvidia posts its longest losing streak since 2022 ahead of Wednesday's earnings, and Texas pauses new data centre approvals. Mark and Phil cover the ASX earnings wrap (Ampol, Adore Beauty, Aussie Broadband), BHP's record high, the commodity and crypto rally (Bitcoin +23% on 5-day, gold eyeing $4,700), and what's ahead this week — RBA minutes today, NVIDIA + CPI Wednesday, Wesfarmers Thursday, and Fed Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole Friday.

Wall Street finished higher Friday but posted weekly losses as bond yields and Iran dominated sentiment. Mark Gardner and Phil Deloccheri cover the seesaw week in equities, Ray Dalio's debt crisis warning and call to sell bonds for gold, Bitcoin's 20% weekly surge, Citadel's unwind of the Situational Awareness book, and what's ahead in a massive week — NVIDIA earnings, Jackson Hole, Australian CPI, and the final wave of ASX reporting season with Woolworths, Wesfarmers, and Qantas. Plus: MPC's AIH webinar tomorrow at 12:30.

Key topics: S&P 500 weekly loss, bond yield volatility, Ray Dalio gold & Bitcoin call, NVIDIA earnings preview, Jackson Hole & Fed Chair Warsh, Australian CPI & RBA outlook, ASX reporting season downgrades, Citadel/Situational Awareness unwind.

MPC Markets — For professional use only. Not financial advice.
https://mpcmarkets.com.au

There you go — YouTube description with timestamps-ready structure, hashtags, and subscribe CTA, plus a shorter Spotify description optimised for that platform's text display. Both pull directly from the podcast transcript content so they match what was actually discussed (including the AIH webinar plug and the Jensen/NVIDIA commentary).

US debt hits $40 trillion. Bitcoin surges 20%. Moderna rockets 177% on a breakthrough cancer treatment. And Bessent starts buying the long end of the curve — is this the white flag on US fiscal discipline?

In this week's Bulls vs Bears, Mark, Phil, JT, and Finn (filling in for Kai) break down ASX earnings season — CSL shines (+7%), BHP delivers a record dividend, and consumer discretionary gets hammered across the board. Plus the team debuts a new segment: Buy, Avoid, and Wildcard picks.

Topics covered:

• $40 trillion US debt — what it means for fiat currency and precious metals
• Bitcoin's 20% rally, the Clarity Act, and why Finn says be patient on the 4-year cycle
• ASX earnings: CSL, BHP, Stockland (+12%), Breville, and the consumer pain trade
• Why gold miners are still cheap despite record gold prices
• Bond yields, yield curve targeting, and Bessent's "surrender"
• Oil creeping toward records while the US consumer burns through savings
• Each team member's Buy, Avoid, and Wildcard picks
• Bulls vs Bears verdict: 2 bearish, 2 bullish heading into NVIDIA week

Next week: RBA Minutes, Aussie CPI, NVIDIA earnings, Jackson Hole, and the "Next Winners in AI" webinar.

Wall Street fell 0.9% as Treasury Secretary Bessent's bond buyback relief reversed within 24 hours, with 10-year yields pushing above 4.70% and US debt crossing $40 trillion. Oil surged past $93 on Trump's "economic D-Day" threat against Iran, while Walmart's worst comparable sales miss in six years rattled consumer confidence. The ASX faces a softer open with futures down 0.3%.