Oil's back at $80 and the Iran war is officially back on. Trump reimposed the Hormuz blockade and demanded a 20% toll on all shipping. Chip stocks got hammered after SK Hynix plunged 15% in Seoul and the KOSPI hit another circuit breaker. The S&P 500 fell 0.8%, Nasdaq dropped 1.6%.

Fed Governor Waller says another hot inflation print is "signal, not noise" — markets now price 50-50 odds of a July hike. US CPI tonight. All five major US banks report today.

We cover the Hormuz shipping collapse, copper's quiet grind higher, Europe's jet fuel crunch, gold under pressure, and portfolio positioning at elevated levels.

The US-Iran ceasefire is dead. Four days of strikes, 300 Iranian targets, and Tehran has closed the Strait of Hormuz until further notice. Trump says it's open — the satellite data says otherwise. Oil up 3%, ASX futures down half a percent.

Meta surged 6% on an AI compute upgrade. SK Hynix debuted with the largest-ever foreign IPO on the Nasdaq at $26.5B. Netflix slipped on subscriber engagement concerns.

Mark flags the risks stacking up: record margin debt, fund managers with no dry powder, near-record-low put/call skew, and hyperscaler CapEx inflation heading into earnings. None fatal alone — together they're worth watching. Full detail in our Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy episode.

Week ahead: US bank earnings (JPM, BofA, Goldman, Citi), TSMC, BHP ops review, Netflix, CPI Tuesday. Plus Buy the Dip closing mid next week — details at https://mpcinvest.co/BuytheDip

Chip stocks powered Wall Street higher as investors brushed aside U.S.–Iran strikes. S&P 500 +0.8% to 7,541.83, Nasdaq +1.3%. SK Hynix raised $26.5B in the largest foreign IPO in U.S. history. Meta up 4.7% on AI chip production plans, Muse Spark 1.1 launch, and cloud business exploration. Crude fell ~2% despite 170 U.S. strikes on Iranian targets after Trump said Iran called wanting a deal. Leverage in equity markets hitting alarming levels. Fed's Warsh named five task forces with serious firepower to overhaul how the central bank operates. Week ahead: CPI Tuesday, PPI Wednesday, big bank earnings kick off with JPMorgan and BofA, TSMC Thursday. Bulls vs Bears podcast out tonight ~6pm.

Trump declared the Iran ceasefire "over" at NATO, launching a second day of strikes as markets closed. Oil surged past $80 before settling at $78.55. The S&P dipped 0.3% while chip stocks bounced. Fed minutes showed a split committee on rate hikes under new chair Warsh. We break down the Iran escalation, oil dynamics, Hormuz traffic, Nvidia's China chip deal, the IMF growth downgrade, bond yield spikes, earnings season risks, and why portfolio hedging matters right now.

Samsung's record profit wasn't enough. Chip stocks got hammered across the board, with the Philly Semis down 4.7% and Intel off nearly 10%. The US hit Iran with fresh strikes and revoked its oil sales waiver after three tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. Crude surged 5%, gold dropped, and bond yields hit a four-week high.

But here's the thing — most S&P 500 stocks rose. Money is rotating out of tech, not leaving the market. We break down what that means, plus SpaceX's rough first day on the Nasdaq 100, SK Hynix's monster IPO, the VIX sitting at cycle lows, and what to watch for Wednesday including the Fed minutes.

Chip stocks snap a two-week losing streak on light post-holiday volume. AMD, Broadcom, TSMC all up big — Nvidia lagged on delay rumours. Dow at a record, S&P within 1% of highs. Bitcoin up nearly 10% in five days. Former Japanese currency czar says yen undervalued by 20%. Fed Chair Warsh testifies tonight, first-under-Warsh minutes out Wednesday. ASX news: Lynas, South32, Netwealth, VanEck's AI ETF. Daily market briefing with Mark Gardner at MPC Markets.

Dow hits record 52,899 but chip stocks crater. June payrolls: 57k vs 115k expected. Rate hike odds slashed. We cover the jobs miss, what it means for the Fed, Meta's $145B AI capex scramble, oil flattening at pre-war levels, gold surging on dollar weakness, and why 87% of the S&P 500's H1 gains came from chips alone. Plus the 1990s Desert Storm parallel for where inflation goes from here. No show Monday (July 4th) — back Tuesday. Catch Bulls vs Bears this afternoon for the full H1 wrap.

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Book a Portfolio Review: https://www.mpcmarkets.com.au/portfolio-review/Semiconductor stocks were hammered today after reports that OpenAI has dramatically cut inference costs through software optimisations — slashing GPU requirements for large parts of ChatGPT traffic. The SOX Index fell over 6% in its worst session in months, hitting Nvidia, AMD, Intel and chip equipment names hard after one of the strongest quarters on record.In this episode we break down what this means for the AI infrastructure trade, whether hyperscaler capex is at risk of slowing, and how the market is digesting the shift from training-heavy to inference-heavy dynamics. We also cover progress in US-Iran talks in Doha on the Strait of Hormuz and frozen assets, which helped ease oil supply concerns.Plus, Fed’s Kevin Warsh struck a dovish tone on inflation risks at ECB Sintra, while fresh ISM data showed pipeline price pressures cooling sharply. We discuss positioning implications across equities, energy, gold and what to watch as US markets head into the July 4th holiday.

Best quarter in six years and chips stole the show. SOX up 88% for the quarter — its best ever. Micron quadrupled. Intel trebled. And the Mag Seven? Down 4% for the year. The companies spending the money are lagging the companies selling them the shovels.

Gold's had its worst quarter since 2013, down 24% from the January highs. Iran talks resume in Doha but the "back to normal in two weeks" calls from Wall Street feel detached from reality. Samsung and SK Hynix just pledged $1.3 trillion in new chip investment. Nike beat on both lines and still sold off. JOLTS job openings hit a two-year high and rate hike bets are building.

Plus: ASX starts FY27, South32 sells its aluminium business to Alcoa for $8.1bn, and why healthcare might be the rotation play when chip stocks eventually turn. Payrolls land Thursday night with no US market Friday — that Asian open could get spicy.

S&P 500: 7,496 (+0.8%) | Nasdaq: 26,213 (+1.5%) | Dow: record 52,317 | SPI: 8,784

The Dow closed at a record 52,182 as Alphabet debuted in the index and tech staged a sharp rebound from last week's semiconductor selloff. Mark Gardner breaks down whether this is genuine buying or end-of-quarter window dressing — plus why the best quarter for equities since COVID might actually be a warning sign.

Also covered: the Japanese yen at 40-year lows and what that means for equity markets, the ASX outlook with RBA minutes due today, Collins Foods hitting record revenue, early-stage biotech momentum, and a busy week ahead with non-farm payrolls landing on a pre-holiday Thursday.

Key numbers: S&P 500 +1.2% to 7,439 • Nasdaq +2.3% • Dow +0.6% to 52,182 • SOX +87% YTD • Yen 161.94/USD (1986 low) • WTI $70.54 • ASX futures 8,825

Weekly podcast: Bulls vs Bears drops every weekend with Mark, Finn, Kai & JT.

MPC Markets | General commentary, not financial advice.