MPC Markets Morning Call

Cooling US inflation data sparked a morning rally, but Wall Street gave it all back in a brutal final-hour selloff. The Dow dropped 0.86%, the S&P 500 lost 0.25%, and bond yields hit multi-decade highs with the 30-year at 5.638%.

Micron smashed earnings — revenue up 256% year-on-year — but the flat after-hours reaction has Mark questioning AI sentiment heading into Q4. The team draws parallels to Cisco's dotcom crash and flags caution around high-profile AI IPOs. Phil runs technical updates on PMA and New Hope, and the episode wraps with what to watch for the ASX open with SPI futures pointing down 51 points.

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Wall Street finished lower as the US 10-year yield touched 5.27% — a fresh 19-year high — and Brent crude held above US$105 on Iran–Strait of Hormuz tensions. Gold and silver were smashed 3–5% as surging real yields crushed non-yielding assets.

In this episode, Mark and Phil cover:

- US 10-year at 5.27% and 30-year through 5.50% — hyperscaler debt now competing with Treasuries

- Brent crude holds above US$105; Bloomberg's head macro analyst warns Iran will escalate into the midterms

- Nvidia up 1.6% on a record US$150B buyback authorisation increase

- Tesla –4% on a JPMorgan price target cut; Boeing –7% on FAA MAX 10 delay

- AMD acquires World Labs (Fei-Fei Li's AI startup); Meta poaches MongoDB CEO for enterprise AI

- Gold –3.6%, silver –5% as non-yielding assets buckle under surging real yields

- SpaceX Starship reaches orbit but cuts mission short on engine problems

- RBA decision at 2:30pm AEST — 95% chance of a 25bp hike to 4.60%

- ASX day ahead: banks bid on rate hike, miners and tech under pressure

- Northern Star / Gold Fields takeover bid and Elliott activist involvement

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Stocks Grind Higher as Geopolitics Weighs | 28 September 2026 Wall Street rebounded Friday — Dow +0.93%, S&P 500 +0.51%, Nasdaq +0.48% — led by Microsoft's Copilot refresh and easing oil as Iran proposed a seven-day Hormuz reopening. But Trump rejected the deal on Saturday, putting the war premium back in play. The US 10-year yield closed at 5.18% (hit 5.23% intraday) with the 30-year topping 5.50% for the first time since 2004. The MOVE bond-volatility index sits at 105 vs a decade average of 80 — stress levels remain elevated. In Australia, the ASX 200 closed at 8,665 — its lowest since June — with SPI futures pointing flat at 8,720. The RBA board begins deliberations today ahead of Tuesday's near-certain 25bp hike to 4.60%, with at least two more increases priced toward 5%+. Key events this week: RBA decision (Tue), August CPI (Wed), US payrolls (Fri), Micron earnings (Wed), China PMIs (Thu). Try Mosaic free — all MPC research, recommendations & charting in one platform: mpcmarkets.com.au/mosaic ⚠️ General information only, not investment advice. MPC Markets — CAR No. 1297122 of LeMessurier Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 296877).

US equities finished a choppy session little changed on Thursday, with the S&P 500 easing 0.02% to 7,704.13, the Dow down 0.3% to 51,349.98 and the Nasdaq up a marginal 0.01% to 26,939.37, as a bond-market rout and a fresh spike in oil offset any comfort from the Trump–Xi summit in Washington. The US 10-year Treasury yield jumped roughly 9bp to 5.20–5.21%, its highest since July 2007, after NY Fed President John Williams said another hike by year-end was "reasonable." Brent crude rose more than 3% to settle near $106.60 after Houthi missile strikes on Saudi Arabia, even as US–Iran negotiators explored a phased Hormuz deal. Bond managers surveyed by Reuters say they're avoiding big macro bets in favour of shorter-dated, higher-quality credit. The ASX is set for a softer open, with SPI futures down 32 points to 8,706 and the AUD near US70.09¢ ahead of next week's expected RBA hike.

Six takeaways:

US equities were little changed — S&P 500 -0.02% to 7,704.13, Dow -0.3% to 51,349.98, Nasdaq +0.01% to 26,939.37.

Houthi missiles hit Saudi Arabia, reviving Gulf supply-risk premiums even as US–Iran talks on reopening Hormuz continue.

Brent settled near $106.60 (+3.4%), WTI ~$94.61–$95.29, gold slipped ~0.4% to around $4,270.

US 10-year yield +9bp to 5.20–5.21% (highest since 2007); 30-year touched its highest since 2004.

Meta +4.5% on Muse AI momentum, Oracle -3.5% on a data-centre force majeure notice; bond managers favouring short-dated, high-quality credit.

ASX 200 futures -32pts/-0.4% to 8,706, AUD ~US70.09¢, RBA hike almost fully priced for next week.

US 10-Year Yield Smashes to Record Highs — Bond Market Sends a Warning

Jonathan Tacadena hosts today's Morning Call as the bond market delivers the story of the day: the US 10-year yield rocketed from ~4.95% to 5.11% overnight, a fresh record high and one of the sharpest moves in recent memory. Equities were mostly lower but surprisingly muted given the scale of the bond sell-off — Dow -350pts, S&P -0.75%, Nasdaq -1%, Russell 2000 hit hardest at -1.77%. Jonathan breaks down the Nasdaq/S&P divergence, the carry-trade risks behind rising yields, a strengthening US Dollar Index, commodities (crude and copper softer, Bitcoin back near $84k), and what it means for the ASX — plus a preview of next week's AI governance webinar with Kai Chen.

Key takeaways:

• US 10-year yield hit 5.11% intraday, a new record high
• US equities mostly lower overnight, but the reaction was muted relative to the bond move
• Nasdaq/S&P divergence: Google, Amazon, Broadcom weaker; Microsoft, Meta, Palantir held up
• Rising yields raise carry-trade unwind risk for stretched global equity valuations
• Commodities mixed: crude and copper pulled back, gold/silver flat, Bitcoin near $84k
• ASX 200 holding near 8,750, at risk of drifting lower on the global bond backdrop

⚠️ Figures are as stated on the call, not independently verified against market data.

For professional use only. Not financial advice.

MPC Markets Morning Call — 23rd September 2026: Copper Smashes Record Highs as NASDAQ Grinds to New Peaks

Jonathan Tacadena and Finn Judell run the show today while Mark and Phil are in Brisbane, running through overnight markets and the levels to watch before the ASX open.

In this episode:

• NASDAQ closes at a fresh record high (a modest +0.5% move) while copper breaks out to all-time highs on the structural deficit, data centre build-out and electrification thematic
• Gold holds near $4,360/oz despite rising bond yields and record oil prices — an unusual combination that's got Jonathan's attention
• Bitcoin surges as the "crypto winter" narrative looks to be breaking
• Market map deep dive: energy sector red across the board, Tesla and Berkshire Hathaway leading gains, Meta up 11%, and the AI/chip trade (Nvidia, AMD, Micron) continuing to run
• ASX technicals show a rare "strong sell" signal on the daily — but is this actually a buying opportunity given how hard the ASX has lagged Wall Street?
• Why the AI "slow down" scare from a few weeks back has completely reversed, and why AI adoption is still early days
• The "gamification" of markets: near-24-hour trading, prediction markets, football season gambling stocks, and crypto's return as the "original gambler's market"
• Preview of Part 2 of the Beyond Data Centers series with Kai Chen, landing in ~1.5 weeks and focused on AI governance
• Stock picks: Capstone Copper (ASX: CSC) — Jonathan's call that it overtakes Sandfire as the ASX's third most-traded copper stock — plus Waratah Metals (WM1) on fresh drill results

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AI optimism is back with a bang. The Nasdaq closed at its first record high since June as Meta's new AI agent, Muse, sent the stock up more than 11% and dragged chip names like Intel and Arm along for the ride — even as Nvidia lagged. Mark and Phil unpack why "inference" chips are having their moment, run through IDP Education, Telix and the ASX's flattest possible gain, and preview what to watch today: RBA Governor Michele Bullock at 1:10pm AEST, Fed speakers overnight, and Thursday's Trump–Xi summit in Washington.

General information only, not personal financial advice. MPC Markets Pty Ltd is a CAR of LeMessurier Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 296877).

Triple Witching Keeps Stocks Mixed; Weekend Riyadh Strikes See Oil Up

Monday 21st September 2026

$7 trillion in options expired on Friday's triple-witching session — one of the largest on record — keeping US indices range-bound. S&P 500 +0.17%, Nasdaq +0.40%, Dow -0.18%. Semiconductors were the sole sector winner. The US 10-year yield climbed back to 5.00%.

Over the weekend, Houthi strikes hit Riyadh with flames near King Khalid Airport fuel storage. Iran declared Hormuz stays closed until its terms are met — oil opened higher on Monday. Fed's Kashkari said inflation is "still too high in all aspects," keeping October hike odds alive.

Google confirmed Gemini autonomously hacked three companies during a May cybersecurity test. Anthropic set up a wet lab for biology and drug science ahead of its IPO. Bitcoin broke $81,000 (+6%).

ASX SPI futures point to a 57-point drop (-0.7%). RBA rate hike odds at ~95% after Bullock's hawkish testimony. US diesel hit a record ~$6.45/gal with shortages emerging in Florida and California — truckers warning of strikes.

This week: RBA Assistant Governor Hunter (Tue), Governor Bullock at CEDA Sydney (Tue), August Jobs Report (Thu), Trump–Xi Summit (Wed 24 Sep), Fed/BoE/ECB speakers all week.

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Disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. MPC Markets is a Corporate Authorised Representative of LeMessurier Securities Pty Ltd (AFSL 296877). Always do your own research.

Wall Street bounced back overnight led by chip stocks and Nvidia ahead of quad witching expiry, but the broader market had little to offer. The Dow is still down 1.5% for the week, and we can't quite work out what drove the rally.

Today we cover the weekly wrap across US indices, listener-requested chart of the day on AYA (Atreia) and the ASX biotech space, a commodities bounce with lithium, uranium, silver and gold all jumping, and crude holding above US$102 WTI.

Day ahead: Bank of Japan rate decision expected at +25bp, Governor Bullock before the House Economics Committee, Fed speakers, and SPI futures pointing to a 54-point open. Plus Firmus eyeing a $50B ASX float.

The Fed just hiked for the first time since 2023 — 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%, unanimous — and Chair Kevin Warsh warned inflation is "too high and has been for too long." Sixteen of eighteen policymakers see at least one more hike this year, and the dot plot doesn't project 2% inflation until 2029.

Wall Street reversed hard during the presser: Dow –1.21%, S&P 500 –0.44%, Nasdaq barely flat. Oil pulled back sharply on Saudi workaround cargoes via Oman. The 10-year yield held above 5% and the curve flattened dramatically.

We break down why yield spikes historically precede Nasdaq slumps, the equity risk premium warning, ASX financials at critical support, and what Friday's $5.1 trillion quad witching means for next week.

Key levels: Dow 51,461 · S&P 7,552 · Brent $105.83 · SPI Futures 8,625 (–0.75%) · AUDUSD 0.7084

For professional use only. Not financial advice.