It’s well-known mantra that the party in the White House always struggles in midterm elections, as lofty expectations give way to the grinding ineffectiveness of the American legislative process, suppressing majority support, while the out-party is energized with desires of revenge. Indeed, the out-party typically gains over 30 House seats in the first midterm of a new presidency.  But anomalies exist. In 2002, George W. Bush and his Republicans rode the post-9/11 zeitgeist to congressional victories. Is 2022 more like 2002, or like any other normal midterm? Today, Kerry Eleveld and I will dig deep into the issue.