The Downballot

In a stunning turn of events almost two weeks after Election Day, Democrat Allison Riggs surged to a narrow lead in her bid for a full term on the North Carolina Supreme Court after trailing by as many as 10,000 votes. David Nir and David Beard discuss this dramatic turnaround on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast—but caution that legal challenges before a far-right judiciary await.

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The Davids also talk to one of their favorite congressional reporters, Abby Livingston of Puck News, who shares her views on the gap between Donald Trump and the rest of the GOP ticket in this year's elections. Was it a special "Trump sauce" or candidate quality that saw them diverge? The answer might be both! Livingston also pulls back the curtain on the anonymous Democratic "bedwetters" who constantly fret to reporters, explaining that most are at least one step removed from any actual campaigns.

While the House was just called for Republicans, the GOP's majority will be incredibly slender—and it's about to get worse. On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard dive into two uncalled races that could flip to Democrats, further narrowing the GOP's advantage. But worse still is Donald Trump, who's been raiding the House for his cabinet, prompting Mike Johnson to beg him to stop. So what did Trump do? Why, he nominated Matt Gaetz for attorney general, of course.

It may seem hard to believe after Tuesday night, but Democrats still have a shot at winning a majority in the House. With many races uncalled and many votes still to be counted, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard analyze the Democrats’ path to 218 seats on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast. Hang on tight, though, since it could be a while before final results are known.

America’s democratic institutions have been put to the test in recent years, but are they robust enough to withstand what’s coming next?

On Thursday, I joined with Aaron Rupar of Public Notice for a live discussion as part of Substack’s Election Dialogues series to examine the threats our democracy faces in the 2024 elections and beyond. We hit a wide variety of topics, including voter suppression, election subversion, and Donald Trump’s dark plans for a second term.

We also took questions from our viewers throughout the event, which was a huge success—a thousand people participated! If you weren’t able to catch us live, though, you can listen to the complete recording.

At long last, the election is almost here, and there are thousands of races to follow. That's why we're lucky to have the supremely knowledgeable Jeff Singer, our managing editor, join us on the last pre-election edition of The Downballot podcast to give us an hour-by-hour overview of the key contests to watch. Jeff highlights the top Senate battles and critical House races that will likely determine control of both chambers, starting when the first polls close in Indiana all the way until voting wraps in Alaska.

Few people can cut through the noise like Josh Marshall, founder of the seminal Talking Points Memo and O-est of the O.G. political analysts. On this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, Josh explains how he concluded that Donald Trump's unorthodox get-out-the-vote operation is probably a mess—and why it could harm Republicans further down the ticket. He also tells us about some of the House races on the bubble that he's keeping an eye on, which seem to point to a solid Democrat year despite the polls.

That's a topic co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also delve into at the top of the show, when they discuss the "triage" now underway in the battle for the House. Big-money groups are starting to reposition their resources for the final two weeks, and so far, almost all of the moves have favored Democrats. Special elections have also brought good news for Democrats, as Nir detailed in a new article this week, so which pieces of evidence should you believe? As the Davids explain, it might just be all of the above.

New fundraising reports show Democrats absolutely obliterating Republicans up and down the ballot, while a leaked super PAC memo indicates some serious GOP anxiety about Senate race polling. That all looks like good news for Democrats, but polls still show an exceedingly close contest at the top of the ticket, so which pile of evidence is pointing the right way? It's the central question we're discussing on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast—and the answer could very well be "both."

Our guest this week is Robert Reynolds Gambhir of Vote Rev, an organization that harnesses behavioral science to boost civic engagement. Robert tells us about Vote Rev's methods for enhancing traditionally impersonal get-out-the-vote efforts by asking voters to reach out to their friends. They dub the tactic "vote tripling," and campaigns are currently deploying it in the runup to the November elections.

Here's a big election on Nov. 5 you won't want to sleep on: Puerto Rico, a territory home to 3.2 million U.S. citizens, is holding a plebiscite on the question of statehood. Joining us on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast to explain the vote—and the 126 years of colonial history leading up to it—is George Laws Garcia, executive director of the Puerto Rico Statehood Council. Laws Garcia details the huge disadvantages Puerto Ricans face due to the island's current status and says they point to a victory for statehood. And should it become a state, he intriguingly tells us why he thinks Puerto Rico would defy conventional wisdom and wind up a swing state.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also examine the House battlefield, which remains very small but, inch by inch, is growing—most notably in South Texas, where Democrats are making a play for a heavily Latino, GOP-trending district that they left by the wayside last cycle. Then the Davids dissect a strange poll from a strange candidate in a swingy House race before checking back in on Indiana, where both Democrats and Republicans are suddenly treating the open governor's race like it's genuinely competitive.

Asian Americans are an often untapped constituency that could make or break close many elections up and down the ballot. This week on The Downballot podcast, we're speaking with Shekar Narasimhan, the founder of the AAPI Victory Fund, who explains how his organization motivates voters and helps elect progressive Asian American, Pacific Islander, and Native Hawaiian candidates to office. Education and immigration are top issues throughout the diverse AAPI community, where a robocall in a native language—the Victory Fund can translate into more than a dozen—can go a long way.

Meanwhile, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard dive into a most unexpected contest: the race for Indiana's open governorship, which shot onto the radar this week thanks to a disastrous GOP campaign ad and some shockingly close polling. The Davids also check in on the Senate races in Texas and Florida, another pair of red states where Democrats are making a late move to expand the battlefield in the hopes of retaining their slim majority.

Just how big will Mark Robinson's blast radius grow? We're surveying the damage on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast, and it's looking pretty gnarly for the North Carolina GOP. Most Republicans have found increasingly creative ways of distancing themselves from their fatally flawed gubernatorial nominee, but the sheer number of tossup races on the ballot means that any downturn in enthusiasm could have profound effects in the Tar Heel State.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also nerd out with Kirk Bado, editor of the National Journal Hotline, about this year's elections. Bado gives us a sneak preview of his new power rankings for Congress, which rank the top seats in both chambers in order of their likelihood of flipping. He also discusses a major new investigation into the dearth of House polling and highlights a few on-the-bubble races he's keeping an eye on.