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It’s October, and the political environment is really, really, REALLY bad for the Republican Party. Cook Political Report editor in chief Amy Walter explains how Cook is approaching its race ratings this year, and she and Sarah discuss the ever-growing list of reasons swing voters are mad about the state of the country, discuss Michigan’s Senate race and Sarah’s latest Focus Group Newsletter, and have a more high-minded discussion about how AI is affecting voters’ information diets (and the next election).
Show links:
Sarah’s Michigan Focus Group Newsletter
Subscribe to the Cook Political Report!
CPR’s PollTracker (Trump Approval Rating Aggregator)
CPR’s “Find a Race” sorter
CPR’s Battleground District Project
Ohio used to be the biggest swing state in the country. It's turned pretty red, (Trump won it by 11 points in 2024) but it's very hotly contested this year, and there's one big overarching local issue driving it. Signal Ohio state government and politics reporter Andrew Tobias joins Sarah to break down the major players.
Show links:
Signal Ohio
Sarah's Focus Group Newsletter on Vivek Ramaswamy
Sarah's Thank You to the Bulwark Community (Comment here for her AMA next Friday)
For a limited time, go to https://TempoMeals.com/THEFOCUSGROUP for 60% off your first box.
Embrace your salty side. Go to https://KaChava.com and use code thefocusgroup for 15% off your first order.
Send questions for the show to [email protected].
Recorded on Monday, Sept. 14 and the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco, Sarah and Pod Save America’s Dan Pfeiffer discuss her book, How to Eat an Elephant, what focus groups are, why she does them, and she uncorks some fresh focus group content on-stage. Sarah will be back behind the mic next week.
For a limited time, save 20% on your first subscription order of AG1 Next Gen or AG1 Pro at https://DrinkAG1.com/THEFOCUSGROUP.
Against all odds, Democrats still have a chance in the Texas Senate race. So, is it because Ken Paxton is bad, or because of James Talarico's Nice Young Man energy? Turns out, both.
Veteran Texas journalist Christopher Hooks of Texas Monthly joins Sarah to talk about Ken Paxton's sordid history in Texas Republican politics, how Texas Trump voters are responding to James Talarico, whether the race for governor may turn competitive, and how data centers and Flock surveillance cameras are presenting an opportunity to recapture some disaffected Trump voters.
Go to https://Leesa.com for 30% off select mattresses during their Labor Day sale, PLUS get an extra $50 off with promo code FOCUSGROUP, exclusive for my listeners.
Get tickets for our Ohio live show, benefitting the Springfield, OH community.
Subscribe to Sarah's Focus Group Newsletter for more exclusive insights on the Texas race this coming Tuesday.
Show Links:
Chris Hooks: Ken Paxton Now Has to Do the Unthinkable: Try
North Carolina has been a difficult nut for Democrats to crack for nearly two decades. But relatively popular former Gov. Roy Cooper appears to be on the verge of changing that this year, partly because NOBODY knows who his opponent is. Western Carolina University political science professor Chris Cooper joins Sarah to discuss this year's U.S. Senate race, the House landscape in North Carolina and whether some recent successes for Democrats can translate into carrying the state in 2028.
Become a Bulwark+ member to receive Sarah's upcoming Focus Group Newsletter.
Show links:
By Chris Cooper: Anatomy of a Purple State
Why is 80-year-old Ed Markey surviving a Democratic revolt against aging politicians? Sarah Longwell and GBH’s Adam Reilly listen to Massachusetts voters explain why Rep. Seth Moulton’s 'new generation' argument isn’t landing—and what the race reveals about what Democratic voters really want.
Plus, they discuss Moulton’s attacks on Markey, his damaging comments about trans athletes, and a brutal debate exchange over AI.
Nobody else in political media does quite what we do with these focus groups: talking to voters week after week and letting you hear for yourself what’s actually driving their decisions. If you’re able, please considering becoming a paid member of the Bulwark and help keep this one-of-a-kind project going.
Amy Walter returns to the pod for a pundit therapy session. She and Sarah discuss:
A recent focus group of Georgia swing voters, and what they think of Sen. Jon Ossoff and his opponent.
The massive polling misses in the Wisconsin and Michigan primaries, and listen to a focus group of Wisconsin voters that tell us (in retrospect) how David Crowley was able to pull of a last minute surge.
Show links:
Subscribe to the Cook Political Report! (https://www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe)
CPR’s PollTracker (Trump Approval Rating Aggregator) (https://www.cookpolitical.com/survey-research/cpr-polltracker/trump-trendlines)
CPR’s “Find a Race” sorter (https://www.cookpolitical.com/races)
CPR’s Battleground District Project (https://www.cookpolitical.com/survey-research/battleground-district-project)
For a limited time, go to https://TempoMeals.com/THEFOCUSGROUP for 60% off your first box.
Bulwark LIVE: The GOOD FIGHT TOUR with Tim, Sarah, Sam and JVL is coming to the Southeast in October. Tickets go on sale August 21. Bulwark+ members get early access via our presale starting August 18. Watch your inbox for details. Head to TheBulwark.com/Events for details and to get your tickets.
There are more tickets to see Sarah and JVL on September 8 in NYC! We are about to sell out the orchestra section—but we want to sell out the balcony, too. It’s a point of pride. Come hang with us. Tickets are here.
At the end of one of the most expensive Democratic primaries for Senate in American history, Abdul El-Sayed appears to be pulling away. We've been talking to Democratic primary voters in Michigan about El-Sayed and Rep. Haley Stevens, and what they like (and don't like) about each candidate. Jonathan Cohn, author of the newsletter The Breakdown and The Bulwark's resident Michigander, joins the show to discuss a primary that Sarah thinks has gone on for way too long.
episode links:
How Old-School Race Animus Could Shake Up the Michigan Senate Race
Why Gretchen Whitmer’s Senate Endorsement Matters
Why Mallory McMorrow’s Campaign Didn’t Survive
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