The Odd Years

Amy's guest today, Dr. Michael Bitzer, calls North Carolina the "stuck battleground state." That's because Republicans have dominated there in presidential elections. And yet, every four years, Democrats hold out hope that they can turn it blue. Barack Obama did it in 2008, but no other Democrat has done so since.

Will 2024 be different? Joe Biden thought he could keep the Tar Heel state in play but as he struggled nationally, his numbers sunk. It's a different story with Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket and North Carolina is now a very close race.

Today, Amy turns to Dr. Michael Bitzer, Politics Department Chair at Catawba College and author of the blog, Old North State Politics, to learn more about the state of the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump and what to look for as we get closer to election day.

**Do you want insider access to Amy Walter, David Wasserman and the rest of the Cook Political Report editorial team? Registration to our live 2024 Election Preview on October 2 is now open for all annual, group and premium subscribers. We’ll have a presentation on key races and the political dynamics of 2024, followed by a Q&A session. If you are interested in attending and not yet a subscriber, go to www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe. Unlock all the inside access and benefits of a Cook Political Report subscription. We hope to see you on October 2!**

Amy's guest today, Dr. Michael Bitzer, calls North Carolina the "stuck battleground state." That's because Republicans have dominated there in presidential elections. And yet, every four years, Democrats hold out hope that they can turn it blue. Barack Obama did it in 2008, but no other Democrat has done so since.

Will 2024 be different? Joe Biden thought he could keep the Tar Heel state in play but as he struggled nationally, his numbers sunk. It's a different story with Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket and North Carolina is now a very close race.

Today, Amy turns to Dr. Michael Bitzer, Politics Department Chair at Catawba College and author of the blog, Old North State Politics, to learn more about the state of the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump and what to look for as we get closer to election day.

**Do you want insider access to Amy Walter, David Wasserman and the rest of the Cook Political Report editorial team? Registration to our live 2024 Election Preview on October 2 is now open for all annual, group and premium subscribers. We’ll have a presentation on key races and the political dynamics of 2024, followed by a Q&A session. If you are interested in attending and not yet a subscriber, go to www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe. Unlock all the inside access and benefits of a Cook Political Report subscription. We hope to see you on October 2!**

Right before President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, his path to victory appeared very narrow. It was: win the midwest states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

But with Kamala Harris now at the top of the ticket, the electoral map could open up for Democrats, and some of those states that Joe Biden won in 2020, but seemed out of reach in 2024, could be back in play. One of those states is Georgia.

Biden won narrowly there in 2020 thanks in large part to significant turnout and support from the Black community. Recent national polls show Kamala Harris running stronger with younger and voters of color than Biden. This helps to explain why her campaign chose Atlanta for her kickoff rally last Tuesday night.

Trump campaigns at the very same spot on Saturday.

Our guest today is Maya King, New York Times politics reporter for the Southeast based in Atlanta. We wanted to talk to her about what she’s hearing from voters in Georgia and how Kamala Harris is changing the dynamics in the state.

We spoke on Friday afternoon, a day before Trump’s Atlanta rally.

A special episode of The Odd Years: Amy and David catch up with David Axelrod in Milwaukee at the RNC. The three discuss what they're seeing on the ground, their thoughts on the selection of J.D. Vance as Trump's running mate, and the situation for President Biden and the Democrats as they head into their convention in a few weeks.

David Axelrod is the founding director of the Institute of Politics at the University of Chicago; former Chief Strategist and Senior Advisor to President Obama; senior political commentator at CNN; and host of the podcasts "Hacks on Tap" and "The Axe Files."

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We originally asked our guest today, Michael Podhorzer, to come on to talk about voter demographics. Mike was the longtime political director for the AFL-CIO. He’s now a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress and he writes a Substack called Weekend Reading. And Mike has been one of the pioneers in Democratic circles using data and analytics to inform campaign strategy.

After we invited him on, President Biden had his terrible debate performance and the entire presidential race took a sharp turn. So we’re going to start with the news, and then later we’ll get into some of his big pictures thoughts on horse race polls, education polarization (he has differing opinions from our last guests on this topic), and what he calls “the anti-maga coalition.”

Since news is moving fast right now, we recorded this conversation on Tuesday, July 9 at 2pm.

If you listen to this podcast, you’ve probably heard of the so-called education divide in American politics with those with college degrees increasingly supporting Democrats and liberal causes and those without college degrees, increasingly supporting Republicans and conservative social issues.

On today's show, Amy talks with Matt Grossman, Director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research and professor of political science at Michigan State University and Dave Hopkins, associate professor of political science at Boston College. They are the co-authors of a book coming out this fall called Polarized by Degrees.

Matt and Dave explore how this divide came to be and its impact on voting behavior. But they also look at what the degree gap says about which political party has power in the American culture - in corporate board rooms, on college campuses, and in the media - and why that's created a "perpetual cultural war."

The Cook Political Report's David Wasserman, Jessica Taylor and Erin Covey answer your mailbag questions this week.

They weigh in on what Trump's conviction will mean for Republicans in down-ballot races; they go into the weeds on their process for rating two congressional districts in California; they discuss Senate races in Virginia and Minnesota; and they explain why they don't believe in what some are calling a "reverse coattails" dynamic in the presidential race.

Donald Trump is very popular in rural America. Drive down a rural stretch of road, and you are still likely to see Trump flags waving in the breeze or the Trump logo painted on the side of a barn. Rural parts of America have always been conservative-leaning. But Republicans now dominate rural politics from the top of the ticket to the bottom. 

There have been plenty of books written about how and why Republicans, and Trump in particular, have thrived in rural parts of the country. Our guests today have one of the newest additions to the mix.  Dan Shea and Nick Jacobs are professors at Colby College, and their book is “The Rural Voter: The Politics of Place and the Disuniting of America.” Dan and Nick conducted 10,000 surveys of rural voters. They dug into hundreds of years of voting history to try and understand the voting patterns we are seeing today, and to provide a more nuanced picture of rural voters. 

Amy Walter is joined by her colleague, Cook Political Report Senior Editor and Election Analyst David Wasserman.

First, they answer a listener's question on partisan realignment, particularly among education lines. Next, they dive into the question of which House Republicans won by Biden in 2020 are the most endangered.

Ask us your questions here or by calling 202-739-8520 (press 8). Remember to say your name and where you are calling from.

Amy is back with a conversation about the new show now streaming on Max, The Girls on the Bus.

The show stars Melissa Benoist as Sadie McCarthy, a scrappy and ambitious journalist covering a fictional Democratic presidential primary. It follows Sadie and three other women reporters as they navigate the campaign trail, while juggling their careers, personal lives — and relationships with one another.

The Girls on the Bus is inspired by the book “Chasing Hillary” by Amy Chozick, a former New York Times reporter. Amy’s book chronicled her experiences covering Hillary Clinton’s 2008 and 2016 presidential campaigns.

Amy Walter talks with Amy Chozick and Julie Plec, co-creators and executive producers of The Girls on the Bus, and actress Melissa Benoist. They discuss politics, journalism, and turning campaign coverage into a television series.