The most played episodes among Podcast App listeners.

1. 1
   Number 1: Interview Only w/ Anthony Scaramucci - Why Trump Is Losing In Iran & Trying To Break The West

   Former Trump White House Communications Director and author of the upcoming book All the Wrong Moves: How Three Catastrophic Decisions Led to the Rise of Trump, Anthony Scaramucci joins the Chuck Toddcast, picking up a conversation the two started in Abu Dhabi just before the Iran war — back when the gulf states were considered one of the safest places on earth. They discuss why America's military industrial complex is badly out of step with modern warfare, and that the circuit running between defense contractors and Washington is why nobody fixes it. He walks through Iran's mosaic defense doctrine and its decentralized command structure, the damage Iranian strikes did to U.S. naval logistics in the Gulf — reporting has traced the USS Abraham Lincoln's resupply crisis back to the destruction of the Navy's main Bahrain hub, which forced operations out to Diego Garcia — and the Pentagon's response to that story, which was to go after the press rather than answer for any of it. Hegseth's Pentagon fired Stars and Stripes publisher Max Lederer, editor-in-chief Erik Slavin, and reporter Lara Korte, citing insubordination months after the department had already forced out the paper's congressionally mandated ombudsman, who sued over it. Firing the journalists at a publication created specifically to give troops independent information is, as Scaramucci frames it, exactly the instinct of an institution that can't withstand scrutiny. The structural problem underneath: a defense industry consolidated down to five giant companies that function like a cartel, operating in a post-Citizens United Washington where corporations reliably get what they want and lobbyists will smother any real reform. We spent enormous sums, he argues, to get embarrassed by Iran — and the countries hosting American bases are quietly concluding it isn't worth it, which means new defense pacts are going to form without the United States in them. From there the conversation widens into competition with China and the fracturing of the western alliance. Scaramucci argues China can plan for the long term in ways America simply doesn't, and that the Pentagon still can't pass an audit with nobody ever held accountable — but he's not a declinist: America's freedoms remain a real advantage over Beijing if the country gets its act together, which is precisely the argument in the op-ed on press freedom that started his rift with Trump, and precisely what the Stars and Stripes firings put at risk. He calls Mark Carney the leader of the western world now, credits Carney with understanding that Trump wants to sever the U.S. from the west, and offers the episode's sharpest line: if Trump were a Putin agent, he'd be getting an A+. On the collapsed Canada trade talks, Scaramucci thinks the dispute gets resolved within a couple of weeks, but he's clear that the Carney path — standing up to Trump directly — is not a path Democrats can simply copy. New coalitions have formed since 2016, and he doesn't see a coalition builder anywhere in the current Democratic Party; Gavin Newsom has been pilloried by conservative media for a decade, and the person capable of assembling something genuinely new may have to come from outside politics altogether. “Pre-order All The Wrong Moves now https://www.scaramucci.net/books Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Anthony Scaramucci joins The Chuck ToddCast 00:45 Last time seeing each other was in Abu Dhabi right before Iran war 02:15 Abu Dhabi was one of the safest places in the world pre-war 03:45 How much damage has been done to U.S. & gulf state alliance? 04:15 Our military industrial complex is out of step with modern warfare 05:00 There’s a circuit between defense contractors and D.C. 05:30 Iran will end up closer to their Sunni neighbors after the war 06:15 Iran’s mosaic defense doctrine created decentralized leadership 07:00 Our naval supply depots have been decimated by Iran 08:00 Hegseth’s response was to fire reporters who reported the story 10:30 Defense industry has been consolidated down to 5 big companies 11:30 Those 5 companies act like a monopoly cartel 12:15 Since Citizen’s United, corporations get what they want from D.C. 13:45 We’ve spent huge sums of money to get embarrassed by Iran 15:15 Countries that hosted U.S. bases finding out it’s not worth it 16:00 New defense pacts will be formed without the U.S. involved 17:00 The lobbyists will get in the way of any attempts at reform 19:15 China is able to plan for the long term in a way the U.S. doesn’t 20:15 Anthony’s rift with Trump began was op-ed about importance of free press 20:45 Our freedoms are advantage over China if we get our act together 22:15 China has some advantages over us, but we also have our advantages 23:00 Pentagon can’t pass an audit, but nobody holds them accountable 23:30 Mark Carney is now the leader of the western world now 24:00 Carney understands Trump wants to sever the U.S. from the west 24:30 If Trump was a Putin agent… he would get an A+ 26:15 The Canada trade deal stalled over dual language packaging 28:00 Trade dispute will likely get resolved in the next couple weeks 29:15 The Carney path is not a path for the Democrats 30:30 New coalitions have been formed since the 2016 election 31:15 Don’t see a coalition builder in the current Democratic party 32:00 Gavin Newsom has been pilloried by conservative media for a decade 33:00 Someone from outside of politics could potentially build a coalition See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

   August 27, 2026·38min
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2. 2
   Number 2: Super Tuesdays - Who Succeeds Trump? Why The 2028 Republican Field Is WIDE OPEN

   After last week's Democratic field audit, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza turn to the 2028 Republicans — and find a race the markets treat as a two-man affair between JD Vance and Marco Rubio, and one that Chuck thinks is far softer than that looks. His case: no sitting vice president has been denied his party's nomination in the modern era, but Vance sits below 50% in the markets and may be the weakest heir apparent in either man's lifetime, a candidate who has never won anything without Trump carrying him. They dig into why Rubio has kept his hands remarkably clean on the Iran debacle while Vance has ended up owning it, and why Chuck thinks Rubio takes a break, makes money, and waits for 2032. From there they build out the rest of the field: the near-certainty of a Trump family candidate, Sarah Huckabee Sanders as the likeliest VP pick, Joe Lombardo as the pragmatist the party should be building around, Nikki Haley's underrated path, why Tucker Carlson's contrarianism has no Buchanan-style through line, the class of cabinet officials convinced they can do this — and a genuine, surprising case for Rand Paul as the one candidate who could credibly run against Trump's tariffs and Iran war without being an anti-Trumper. The second half is a brutal accounting of Trump's August. With Canada moving to retaliate after the administration began enforcing 50% tariffs on a slate of Canadian goods and Mark Carney declaring his country "at war," and a temporary waiver on tariffs for 300,000 metric tons of imported ground beef drawing pushback from ranchers, Chuck argues Trump has become the single most effective partner Chuck Schumer has — turning Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota into live races and making life impossible for Collins, Rogers, Hinson, and Husted. They walk through the Arkansas poll showing Tom Cotton in a real race, why they think Republicans have already wasted their financial advantage, and Trump's insistence he deserves a perfect grade on the economy. Then they preview Tuesday's high-stakes South Carolina runoff between Darline Graham and Ralph Norman — a race Trump has personally invested in, with a striking stat about appointed senators in the South — before closing on the Nats' collapse and a hard look at how the front office handled CJ Abrams. Timeline: 00:00 Last week was the Democrats — today it's the 2028 Republican field 00:40 The markets read it as a two-man race: Vance 47%, Rubio 20% 00:57 Who else clears 3%: Tucker, Trump Sr., DeSantis, Don Jr. 01:35 History says the sitting VP gets it 02:51 Vance reminds Chuck of Kamala Harris 03:19 A frontrunner with no positive track record to point to 04:05 Vance probably isn't even a senator without Trump 04:51 How much of Vance's weakness is actually Trump's decline? 06:26 If Trump loses the House and Senate, the field blows open 07:28 Why a Trump family candidacy isn't a 0% proposition 08:03 Ivanka as heir apparent? The Don Jr. vs. Eric assumption 08:44 Rubio: does he run, or take the VP slot? 10:07 Hegseth as McNamara, and Vance owning a war he questioned 10:48 How has Rubio kept his hands this clean? 12:42 The one cabinet member with no visible pay-for-play story 13:13 Chuck's prediction: Rubio sits it out, runs in 2032 14:21 Who else? A Hawley or Cotton as Trumpism 2.0 14:48 Sarah Huckabee Sanders as the most likely VP pick 15:24 Youngkin's problem, and the Huntsman-Kasich empathy lane 16:17 Spencer Cox and the never-Trump ceiling 17:59 How the war with Canada gutted the Las Vegas economy 19:30 Can a Jim Banks run against Vance? 20:42 Brian Kemp passed on the Senate to look at 2028 21:24 What do Republican primary voters even want after a wipeout? 22:11 Are we underwriting Nikki Haley? 23:45 What to make of Tucker Carlson's ten-point plan 25:37 MTG, Massie & the America First lane 27:12 Why Never Trumpers overrate his constituency 28:40 The cabinet members who all think they'll be president 30:09 The Portnoy/Cuban outsider slot 31:19 The one advantage — Vance runs the RNC's fundraising operation 34:06 The real problem for Rand Paul: he isn't likable 35:02 Tariffs and Iran — Trump's two great failures, and Paul opposed both 36:27 Under 1% on the board: the dark-horse buy 36:51 To Trump: a trade war with Canada, and more sanctions on Iran 38:20 The beef decision and what it does to midwest states 39:05 Why the Canada fight hits Vegas and Orlando hardest 40:21 Has Trump found a floor lower than Bush's? 41:41 The Arkansas poll putting Tom Cotton in a real race 42:03 Reading the methodology honestly 43:18 Donald Trump has declared war on rural America 44:55 Trump says he deserves 100% on the economy 46:22 Republicans wasted their financial advantage 47:59 Tuesday night preview: the Graham-Norman runoff 48:40 Trump calls in, rallies in Myrtle Beach t 50:16 Appointed senators survive at 44% in the South vs. 81% elsewhere 52:26 Trump's endorsement record & why he wants to reassert dominance 53:27 What a Graham loss would mean for Hinson and Husted 54:41 Why Collins doesn't want Trump in Maine 57:02 Vance as a cipher — from near-primary-loss to vice president 59:37 What has JD Vance actually done? 1:00:45 The Nats get swept by the Marlins 1:05:04 How you actually screw up a team 1:06:23 Where this front office is genuinely excellent 1:07:48 It's still a people business, just like politics See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

   August 25, 2026·1h 12min
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3. 3
   Number 3: Full Episode - South Carolina Delayed Trump's Lame Duck Status... For Now + Why Trump Is Losing In Iran & Trying To Break The West

   Chuck Todd digs into Darline Graham's 52-48 runoff win over Ralph Norman in South Carolina — a result that snapped Trump's ugly endorsement streak but only barely, and only because Trump personally recruited her, endorsed her, flew to Myrtle Beach for a rally, and dropped more than $800,000 in MAGA Inc. money on a race his PAC had sat out all cycle elsewhere. Chuck's read is that Trump clearly still moves Republican primary voters, but that a four-point squeaker for an appointed newcomer carrying one of the most recognizable names in state politics is not the show of strength the White House wanted. Graham inherited Lindsey's negatives with voters without inheriting his positives, remains an amateur candidate prone to gaffes, and may be dragged down further by resentment over how she got the seat in the first place. Against her is Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician with a real organization raising real money — and while no Democrat has won a Senate race in South Carolina since 1998, Chuck asks the honest question about a favorable environment: what's Andrews' actual ceiling, and can 48% be a winning number in a state where the Supreme Court gutting the Voting Rights Act has produced a surge in Black turnout? If the blue wave turns into a tsunami, South Carolina lands on the map. A Graham loss in this environment would be a genuine disaster for Trump. That leads into the broader strategic picture, where Chuck reports Trump met with advisors about how to deploy his enormous war chest — with the advisors trying to keep the midterms from becoming a referendum on him, and Trump insisting MAGA Inc. spend on ads touting his record. It's a plan built on turning out voters who show up only for Trump, which could either backfire badly or, Chuck concedes, prevent a tsunami. The deeper problem is that Trump is being told what he wants to hear: he thinks the economy is great, voters emphatically don't, and charts are meaningless to people staring at their grocery bills. Unlike Obama, who inherited a mess, Trump's central problems — the tariffs and the Iran war — were his own choices, which is why blaming Joe Biden won't land with any credibility. Chuck also notes that conservative media has spent the week obsessing over the WNBA, a classic look-over-here tactic from outlets that can't discuss the cost of living, and observes something genuinely changed about Trump's second-term psychology: more countries and institutions are willing to push back, and people simply aren't as afraid of him anymore. He is appalled by the reported plan to tear down the Kennedy Center — calling it disgusting to want your name on someone else's tombstone, noting the Kennedy Center was doing fine, and marveling that the Justice Department put any of this in writing. He closes with his argument that America no longer has two functional parties: Democrats are paralyzed, the GOP is owned by Trump, both are held together only by fear of the other side's extremes, nearly half the public identifies with neither, and state law now protects the duopoly from competition. We demand more choice everywhere else in life. His pitch: stop protecting the two parties, let them divorce, and let voters build something that actually looks like the country. Then, former Trump White House Communications Director and author of the upcoming book All the Wrong Moves: How Three Catastrophic Decisions Led to the Rise of Trump, Anthony Scaramucci joins the Chuck Toddcast, picking up a conversation the two started in Abu Dhabi just before the Iran war — back when the gulf states were considered one of the safest places on earth. They discuss why America's military industrial complex is badly out of step with modern warfare, and that the circuit running between defense contractors and Washington is why nobody fixes it. He walks through Iran's mosaic defense doctrine and its decentralized command structure, the damage Iranian strikes did to U.S. naval logistics in the Gulf — reporting has traced the USS Abraham Lincoln's resupply crisis back to the destruction of the Navy's main Bahrain hub, which forced operations out to Diego Garcia — and the Pentagon's response to that story, which was to go after the press rather than answer for any of it. Hegseth's Pentagon fired Stars and Stripes publisher Max Lederer, editor-in-chief Erik Slavin, and reporter Lara Korte, citing insubordination months after the department had already forced out the paper's congressionally mandated ombudsman, who sued over it. Firing the journalists at a publication created specifically to give troops independent information is, as Scaramucci frames it, exactly the instinct of an institution that can't withstand scrutiny. The structural problem underneath: a defense industry consolidated down to five giant companies that function like a cartel, operating in a post-Citizens United Washington where corporations reliably get what they want and lobbyists will smother any real reform. We spent enormous sums, he argues, to get embarrassed by Iran — and the countries hosting American bases are quietly concluding it isn't worth it, which means new defense pacts are going to form without the United States in them. From there the conversation widens into competition with China and the fracturing of the western alliance. Scaramucci argues China can plan for the long term in ways America simply doesn't, and that the Pentagon still can't pass an audit with nobody ever held accountable — but he's not a declinist: America's freedoms remain a real advantage over Beijing if the country gets its act together, which is precisely the argument in the op-ed on press freedom that started his rift with Trump, and precisely what the Stars and Stripes firings put at risk. He calls Mark Carney the leader of the western world now, credits Carney with understanding that Trump wants to sever the U.S. from the west, and offers the episode's sharpest line: if Trump were a Putin agent, he'd be getting an A+. On the collapsed Canada trade talks, Scaramucci thinks the dispute gets resolved within a couple of weeks, but he's clear that the Carney path — standing up to Trump directly — is not a path Democrats can simply copy. New coalitions have formed since 2016, and he doesn't see a coalition builder anywhere in the current Democratic Party; Gavin Newsom has been pilloried by conservative media for a decade, and the person capable of assembling something genuinely new may have to come from outside politics altogether. Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of 2028 GOP presidential candidates and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. “Pre-order All The Wrong Moves now https://www.scaramucci.net/books Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 05:30 Darline Graham wins South Carolina runoff w/Trump’s endorsement 06:00 Trump clearly has influence over GOP primary voters 06:45 The race was a test of Trump’s political strength & she barely won 08:15 Darline inherited Lindsey’s negatives with voters, but not the positives 09:15 It took Trump & his operation to get Graham over the finish line 09:45 May not be a path for Annie Andrews to win, but can make it close 10:30 In favorable environment for Dems, what is the ceiling for Andrews? 11:30 Can 48% be a winning number for Annie Andrews? 12:00 Graham is still an amateur candidate, prone to gaffes 13:15 SCOTUS gutting the Voting Rights Act has led to surge in black vote 14:30 Some voters may be turned off by Graham being appointed 15:30 Andrews has a strong organization & is raising real money 16:15 If the blue wave is a tsunami… South Carolina may be on the map 17:15 Trump desperately needed a Darline Graham 19:15 Candidates who ran as Trump candidates are pivoting for the general 21:00 A Graham loss in this environment would be a disaster for Trump 22:00 Trump met with advisors to discuss how to use his giant war chest 22:30 Advisors don’t want the midterms to be a referendum on Trump 23:15 Trump wants MAGA Inc to spend on ads touting his record 24:15 Trump is out of touch, told what he wants to hear 25:45 Trump thinks the economy is great, the voters certainly don’t 27:00 Economic charts are meaningless when costs are so high 27:45 Trump is not meeting voters where they are 28:15 While Obama inherited a mess, the problems now are caused by Trump 29:00 The tariffs and Iran war were Trump’s choices 30:00 Playing the “blame Joe Biden” card won’t land with credibility 31:00 The senate map is still pretty friendly territory for Republicans 31:30 Trump’s strategy is to turn out voters that show up for only for him 32:30 This plan could also backfire on Republicans 33:45 The plan could also possibly prevent a potential blue tsunami 34:15 Conservative media has been obsessing over the WNBA 35:00 They can’t talk about the serious issues, focused on culture wars 35:45 It’s an old political “look over here” tactic 36:45 Conservatives want voters focused on WNBA, not cost of living 37:30 Conservative media tries to change the subject, Trump doesn’t 38:00 Trump’s psychology has clearly changed in term two 38:45 More countries and institutions are willing to push back on Trump 39:30 People aren’t as afraid to stand up to Trump now 40:15 If Trump tears down the Kennedy Center, the symbolism would be powerful 40:45 It’s disgusting to want to put your name on someone else’s tombstone 41:30 The Kennedy Center was doing FINE before Trump 42:15 Trump isn’t nearly as much of a “builder” as he claims to be 43:15 Threatening to tear down the Kennedy Center is just appalling 44:30 It’s crazy that the Department of Justice put this in writing 45:00 Don’t have two functional parties, Dems are paralyzed, GOP owned by Trump 46:30 Both parties contain wings with diverging philosophies 47:45 Both parties stay together because they’re afraid of the other sides extremes 48:45 Nearly half the public doesn’t identify with either major party 49:30 Voters identify as independents to register protest with both parties 51:30 The “left” and “right” labels end up doing the thinking for us 52:15 Parties lost regional identities as politics became nationalized 53:45 State law now protects the two political parties from competition 54:30 We should stop protecting the duopoly 56:30 Every race shouldn’t have to collapse into the same two parties 57:00 There is a constituency for a multiparty democracy 58:30 We keep defending a political system that most agree isn’t working 59:45 Everywhere else in life we demand more choice. Just not in politics 1:00:45 Let the parties divorce and then let the voters decide 1:02:30 Politics should be more representative of what we are 1:07:00 Anthony Scaramucci joins The Chuck ToddCast 1:07:45 Last time seeing each other was in Abu Dhabi right before Iran war 1:09:15 Abu Dhabi was one of the safest places in the world pre-war 1:10:45 How much damage has been done to U.S. & gulf state alliance? 1:11:15 Our military industrial complex is out of step with modern warfare 1:12:00 There’s a circuit between defense contractors and D.C. 1:12:30 Iran will end up closer to their Sunni neighbors after the war 1:13:15 Iran’s mosaic defense doctrine created decentralized leadership 1:14:00 Our naval supply depots have been decimated by Iran 1:15:00 Hegseth’s response was to fire reporters who reported the story 1:17:30 Defense industry has been consolidated down to 5 big companies 1:18:30 Those 5 companies act like a monopoly cartel 1:19:15 Since Citizen’s United, corporations get what they want from D.C. 1:20:45 We’ve spent huge sums of money to get embarrassed by Iran 1:22:15 Countries that hosted U.S. bases finding out it’s not worth it 1:23:00 New defense pacts will be formed without the U.S. involved 1:24:00 The lobbyists will get in the way of any attempts at reform 1:26:15 China is able to plan for the long term in a way the U.S. doesn’t 1:27:15 Anthony’s rift with Trump began was op-ed about importance of free press 1:27:45 Our freedoms are advantage over China if we get our act together 1:29:15 China has some advantages over us, but we also have our advantages 1:30:00 Pentagon can’t pass an audit, but nobody holds them accountable 1:30:30 Mark Carney is now the leader of the western world now 1:31:00 Carney understands Trump wants to sever the U.S. from the west 1:31:30 If Trump was a Putin agent… he would get an A+ 1:33:15 The Canada trade deal stalled over dual language packaging 1:35:00 Trade dispute will likely get resolved in the next couple weeks 1:36:15 The Carney path is not a path for the Democrats 1:37:30 New coalitions have been formed since the 2016 election 1:38:15 Don’t see a coalition builder in the current Democratic party 1:39:00 Gavin Newsom has been pilloried by conservative media for a decade 1:40:00 Someone from outside of politics could potentially build a coalition 1:41:00 ToddCast Top 5 2028 GOP Presidential candidates 1:41:45 #1 JD Vance 1:43:15 #2 Marco Rubio 1:46:00 #3 Someone named Trump 1:47:00 #4 Nikki Haley 1:47:30 #5 Rand Paul 1:51:00 Ask Chuck 1:51:30 Thoughts on the long-shot Democratic 2028 candidates? 1:57:00 What would your dream bipartisan ticket look like? 2:00:30 What happened to the ideological principles of both parties? 2:04:15 Could Roger Marshall leave and then just be reappointed? 2:07:00 Are we missing shifts in areas we assume are safely red? 2:11:00 College football preview See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

   August 27, 2026·2h 16min
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4. 4
   Number 4: Chuck’s Commentary - Trump’s Trade Wars Are Directly Impacting The Battleground States… & The Midterms + Mark Walter Is The Canary In The Coal Mine

   Chuck Todd opens with the collapse of U.S.-Canada trade talks, where Mark Carney walked away after last-minute American demands — chiefly on mid- and heavy-duty truck tariffs — and declared the U.S. can't be trusted as a partner. Asked about the tone of his remarks, Carney's answer was blunt: you are at war when you get attacked. Chuck notes the whole western world is quietly cheering him on even as individual European leaders push back while the EU took its deal, and argues the real problem is that this administration isn't negotiating with one voice. The fallout lands squarely on Senate battlegrounds, forcing Susan Collins to speak out against her own party's trade war. Then there's beef: Trump's move to let in 300,000 metric tons of tariff-free ground beef drew immediate fire from cattle groups and Republicans including Ashley Hinson and Tim Sheehy, and Chuck argues it's a tacit admission that the tariff regime is raising prices. Battleground states account for two-thirds of American cattle ranching, Iowa becomes the bellwether, and Trump is single-handedly making safe races competitive — while Scott Bessent defends the indefensible, calling tariff refunds corporate welfare and arguing the country needs fewer jobs because of deportations, all as the national debt clears $40 trillion. Then Chuck highlights that polling between July 4th and Labor Day is largely wasted money, the August electorate isn't the November electorate, polling has gotten cheaper and worse, and polling averages deserve real skepticism. Arkansas is the case study — five Senate polls, four poorly done, and the one that got everyone's attention showing Tom Cotton in trouble had bad methodology. Chuck’s landing: don't buy the poll, but Cotton may be in some trouble anyway, because he's an old-school hawk who championed war with Iran in a state where Trump commands more personal loyalty than he does. He won't lose, but the margin could surprise. Chuck also flags red flags in Byron Donalds' northern Florida margins, argues the USS Abraham Lincoln reporting exposed a credibility crisis at a Pentagon where Hegseth treats accurate reporting as a personal threat, and warns it'll take decades for either the Pentagon or DOJ to recover. Plus: an NRSC memo declaring data center politics toxic, Mike Rogers keeping AIPAC out of Michigan while El-Sayed argues outside money shouldn't buy the state's politics, and Hakeem Jeffries meeting privately with Jared Kushner — which Chuck defends outright, because communication isn't betrayal even when the base wants confrontation. He closes on the question underneath the ToddCast's Lakers special report: with private credit over $1.5 trillion and life insurers holding roughly $900 billion of it, is Mark Walter an outlier or the canary in the coal mine? Chuck’s answer is that he isn't an outlier at all — this is how the machine works now, in a corner of finance where no single regulator can see the whole picture and where the real worry may be inflated valuations. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Harry Truman nationalizing the railroad system… and why emergency presidential powers need to be taken back by congress. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 03:00 Noosphere interview this week is on China shock 2.0 05:00 Dynastic this week is on Alabama football 07:00 A couple shout outs from Chuck 11:00 Trade talks between U.S. and Canada collapse 11:30 Mark Carney says the US can’t be trusted as a partner 12:30 Carney says U.S. fired the first shot in trade war with Canada 13:45 Carney doesn’t want Canada subservient to U.S. & will diversify 15:00 European leaders are individually pushing back, but EU took the deal 16:00 The whole western world is cheering on Mark Carney 18:00 We were close to a trade deal, then U.S. added new demands 19:00 Howard Lutnick got involved and created new problems 20:15 The Trump administration isn’t negotiating with one voice 21:15 All the senate battleground races are impacted by Canada trade war 22:30 These aren’t trivial trade relationships with Canada 23:00 Susan Collins is being forced to speak out against trade war 24:30 Trump is now creating a fight with the beef & cattle industry 25:15 Importing cheap foreign beef is admission tariff regime hurts consumers 26:00 Trump will hurt American cattle producers by importing beef 26:45 Battleground states account for 2/3rds of cattle ranching 27:45 This could make uncompetitive elections very competitive 28:15 Iowa will be the bellwether for Trump’s policies impacting ag states 29:15 Trump is actively hurting Republicans in ag heavy states 30:00 Scott Bessent is forced to say the stupidest things to defend Trump 30:30 Bessent is now saying tariff refunds are corporate welfare 31:30 Bessent says we don’t need as many jobs due to deportations 32:15 Bessent is trying to manipulate the bond market prior to midterms 33:15 National debt surpassed 40 trillion dollars, both sides point fingers 34:00 We’re going to have to deal with the debt sooner rather than later 35:00 It’s a waste of money to poll between July 4th and Labor Day 35:45 The electorate in August isn’t the same as the electorate in November 37:00 Polling has gotten cheaper… and worse 38:00 Be wary of indiscriminate polling averages 40:00 Arkansas has had 5 senate polls and 4 were poorly done 41:00 Arkansas poll got everyone’s attention, showed Cotton in trouble 42:30 The methodology of the poll was bad & limited 43:45 Don’t buy the poll, but Tom Cotton actually may be in trouble 44:30 Cotton is an old-school hawk, a champion of war with Iran 45:00 Trump has more personal loyalty in Arkansas than Cotton 45:45 Cotton won’t lose, but the margin may be surprisingly close 47:15 Examination of Bryon Donald's margins showed red flags 47:45 Donalds didn’t perform well in northern Florida counties 48:30 Base voters were motivated enough to go vote against him 49:00 USS Abraham Lincoln has revealed a credibility problem with DoD 49:30 Stars & Stripes was created to give troops access to independent info 50:00 Hegseth viewed accurate reporting as a threat to himself 50:30 Hegseth more worried about a presidential run than the troops 51:15 Can’t trust either the Justice Department or the Pentagon 52:00 It will take decades for either institution to regain credibility 53:30 NRSC put out memo saying data center politics are toxic 54:15 Messaging is to “let communities decide” 54:45 Data centers are the beginning of backlash against tech & AI 55:30 Mark Zuckerberg is only tech CEO who understands the backlash 56:00 Mike Rodgers doesn’t want AIPAC publicly involved in Michigan race 56:45 El-Sayed’s argument is outside interests shouldn’t purchase MI politics 57:30 Plenty of American jews support Israel, but not Netanyahu’s government 58:30 Hakeem Jeffries met privately with Jared Kushner 59:00 This meeting shows the Trump WH preparing for Speaker Jeffries 59:30 Jeffries in impossible position, base wants confrontation with Trump 1:00:30 Jeffries and Kushner SHOULD be talking, communication isn’t betrayal 1:01:45 Is Mark Walter an outlier, or the canary in the coal mine? 1:02:15 After financial crisis, government cracked down on banks 1:02:45 US private credit is now over $1.5 trillion dollar 1:03:30 Life insurance companies have become banks for the ultra wealthy 1:04:30 LIfe insurance companies can operate very differently 1:05:45 You can’t just pull your money out of a life insurance company 1:07:00 The incentives between investment firm & policyholder may not align 1:08:15 Life insurance companies hold $900B in private credit debt 1:08:45 Mark Walter isn’t an outlier, this is how the machine works 1:09:30 If a life insurance company fails, your money can be frozen 1:10:30 There are caps on policyholder protection 1:11:00 Executive Life failed when the junk bond market crashed 1:11:45 Executive Life bonds were bought by Leon Black, who founded Apollo 1:12:15 Insurance isn’t regulated by one agency, it’s multiple agencies and states 1:13:30 Regulators can’t get the picture of the entire machine, just pieces of it 1:14:15 Finance regulators have been siloed off from each other 1:15:45 The real worry here could be inflated valuations 1:20:00 ToddCast Time Machine - 1950, Truman seizes the nation’s railroads 1:20:45 Private rail was the primary transportation system at the time 1:21:15 Congress had given the president the tool to do this 1:22:00 The authority was used during WW1 and WW2 1:22:30 Truman wanted to draft striking rail workers into the military 1:23:00 The strike was settled while Truman was addressing congress 1:23:30 Railroad seizure became routine in the Truman administration 1:24:30 Truman decided country couldn’t risk rail strike during Korean War 1:25:45 Truman’s authority was never really challenged 1:26:15 The rail workers unions couldn’t stop workers from walking off the job 1:27:00 In April 1952 steelworkers were threatening to strike 1:28:30 Steel industry sued Truman and won after he tried to seize it 1:29:00 Rail seizure power was granted by congress, not for steel 1:30:45 Future presidents tried to use this same authority, didn’t always work 1:31:15 Congress needs to take back emergency powers after granting them 1:32:45 Could a future president try to use this power to seize the AI industry? 1:34:30 The lesson is how presidents accumulate power over time 1:35:15 Ask Chuck 1:35:30 Parallels between Natalie Harp and Isabel Lyon? 1:39:45 What gives you pause about Mark Kelly as a candidate? 1:43:30 Could a Democratic wave election change smaller local politics? 1:46:15 What is motivating Darline Graham to run for a full term? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

   August 24, 2026·1h 52min
   Play
5. 5
   Number 5: Full Episode - Trump’s Trade Wars Are Directly Impacting The Battleground States… & The Midterms + Why Do Moderates Keep Losing The Argument?

   Chuck Todd opens with the collapse of U.S.-Canada trade talks, where Mark Carney walked away after last-minute American demands — chiefly on mid- and heavy-duty truck tariffs — and declared the U.S. can't be trusted as a partner. Asked about the tone of his remarks, Carney's answer was blunt: you are at war when you get attacked. Chuck notes the whole western world is quietly cheering him on even as individual European leaders push back while the EU took its deal, and argues the real problem is that this administration isn't negotiating with one voice. The fallout lands squarely on Senate battlegrounds, forcing Susan Collins to speak out against her own party's trade war. Then there's beef: Trump's move to let in 300,000 metric tons of tariff-free ground beef drew immediate fire from cattle groups and Republicans including Ashley Hinson and Tim Sheehy, and Chuck argues it's a tacit admission that the tariff regime is raising prices. Battleground states account for two-thirds of American cattle ranching, Iowa becomes the bellwether, and Trump is single-handedly making safe races competitive — while Scott Bessent defends the indefensible, calling tariff refunds corporate welfare and arguing the country needs fewer jobs because of deportations, all as the national debt clears $40 trillion. Then Chuck highlights that polling between July 4th and Labor Day is largely wasted money, the August electorate isn't the November electorate, polling has gotten cheaper and worse, and polling averages deserve real skepticism. Arkansas is the case study — five Senate polls, four poorly done, and the one that got everyone's attention showing Tom Cotton in trouble had bad methodology. Chuck’s landing: don't buy the poll, but Cotton may be in some trouble anyway, because he's an old-school hawk who championed war with Iran in a state where Trump commands more personal loyalty than he does. He won't lose, but the margin could surprise. Chuck also flags red flags in Byron Donalds' northern Florida margins, argues the USS Abraham Lincoln reporting exposed a credibility crisis at a Pentagon where Hegseth treats accurate reporting as a personal threat, and warns it'll take decades for either the Pentagon or DOJ to recover. Plus: an NRSC memo declaring data center politics toxic, Mike Rogers keeping AIPAC out of Michigan while El-Sayed argues outside money shouldn't buy the state's politics, and Hakeem Jeffries meeting privately with Jared Kushner — which Chuck defends outright, because communication isn't betrayal even when the base wants confrontation. He closes on the question underneath the ToddCast's Lakers special report: with private credit over $1.5 trillion and life insurers holding roughly $900 billion of it, is Mark Walter an outlier or the canary in the coal mine? Chuck’s answer is that he isn't an outlier at all — this is how the machine works now, in a corner of finance where no single regulator can see the whole picture and where the real worry may be inflated valuations. Then, former Ohio Governor and presidential candidate John Kasich joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation that keeps returning to one uncomfortable diagnosis: Americans say they want the political middle and then retreat to their partisan corners the moment it counts. Kasich's read on this cycle is bracing coming from a Republican — the democratic socialists are talking about things voters actually care about, while moderate Democrats have stayed conspicuously quiet, which is exactly why the left has struck a nerve. On the data center backlash, Kasich has a straightforward answer — make them provide their own power — and points out that Ohio ratepayers are already footing higher bills for facilities located in Virginia. He's blunt that politicians are beholden to special interests before they're even sworn in, supports public financing of elections, and warns that neither the center-right nor center-left is producing genuinely interesting solutions to anything, least of all a national debt he says is going to hurt everybody if it isn't addressed. Kasich also addresses recent concerns with the Pentagon, where he brings real budget-committee experience to a question few politicians take seriously: what exactly are we getting for a defense budget this size? He argues Pentagon leadership is deeply resistant to change, that America isn't developing new systems and technology well, that only about 1% of defense dollars go toward new systems, and that we simply don't need this many nuclear weapons — one alone, as he puts it, will ruin your day. He uses the B-2 bomber, built with parts manufactured across a strategically chosen array of states, to explain why reform is so brutally hard, while insisting it remains possible with the right political leadership. From there the conversation widens into Kasich's argument that moderates have historically been the bulwark against the extremes, that outside forces are often what actually force change , and that people outside both parties are about to turn hard on the tech companies. He wonders aloud whether a backlash to private equity could become a genuine threat to capitalism itself — pointing to private equity buying up youth sports to raise prices, and to firms that can effectively choose which regulators they deal with. Kasich closes with Ohio: whether the state is genuinely purple again or just having a bad Republican year, why he thinks it drifts back toward swing status over time, why the Senate race is too close to call, and whether Amy Acton or Vivek Ramaswamy faces the harder barrier to winning the governorship. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Harry Truman nationalizing the railroad system… and why emergency presidential powers need to be taken back by congress. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 03:00 Noosphere interview this week is on China shock 2.0 05:00 Dynastic this week is on Alabama football 07:00 A couple shout outs from Chuck 11:00 Trade talks between U.S. and Canada collapse 11:30 Mark Carney says the US can’t be trusted as a partner 12:30 Carney says U.S. fired the first shot in trade war with Canada 13:45 Carney doesn’t want Canada subservient to U.S. & will diversify 15:00 European leaders are individually pushing back, but EU took the deal 16:00 The whole western world is cheering on Mark Carney 18:00 We were close to a trade deal, then U.S. added new demands 19:00 Howard Lutnick got involved and created new problems 20:15 The Trump administration isn’t negotiating with one voice 21:15 All the senate battleground races are impacted by Canada trade war 22:30 These aren’t trivial trade relationships with Canada 23:00 Susan Collins is being forced to speak out against trade war 24:30 Trump is now creating a fight with the beef & cattle industry 25:15 Importing cheap foreign beef is admission tariff regime hurts consumers 26:00 Trump will hurt American cattle producers by importing beef 26:45 Battleground states account for 2/3rds of cattle ranching 27:45 This could make uncompetitive elections very competitive 28:15 Iowa will be the bellwether for Trump’s policies impacting ag states 29:15 Trump is actively hurting Republicans in ag heavy states 30:00 Scott Bessent is forced to say the stupidest things to defend Trump 30:30 Bessent is now saying tariff refunds are corporate welfare 31:30 Bessent says we don’t need as many jobs due to deportations 32:15 Bessent is trying to manipulate the bond market prior to midterms 33:15 National debt surpassed 40 trillion dollars, both sides point fingers 34:00 We’re going to have to deal with the debt sooner rather than later 35:00 It’s a waste of money to poll between July 4th and Labor Day 35:45 The electorate in August isn’t the same as the electorate in November 37:00 Polling has gotten cheaper… and worse 38:00 Be wary of indiscriminate polling averages 40:00 Arkansas has had 5 senate polls and 4 were poorly done 41:00 Arkansas poll got everyone’s attention, showed Cotton in trouble 42:30 The methodology of the poll was bad & limited 43:45 Don’t buy the poll, but Tom Cotton actually may be in trouble 44:30 Cotton is an old-school hawk, a champion of war with Iran 45:00 Trump has more personal loyalty in Arkansas than Cotton 45:45 Cotton won’t lose, but the margin may be surprisingly close 47:15 Examination of Bryon Donald's margins showed red flags 47:45 Donalds didn’t perform well in northern Florida counties 48:30 Base voters were motivated enough to go vote against him 49:00 USS Abraham Lincoln has revealed a credibility problem with DoD 49:30 Stars & Stripes was created to give troops access to independent info 50:00 Hegseth viewed accurate reporting as a threat to himself 50:30 Hegseth more worried about a presidential run than the troops 51:15 Can’t trust either the Justice Department or the Pentagon 52:00 It will take decades for either institution to regain credibility 53:30 NRSC put out memo saying data center politics are toxic 54:15 Messaging is to “let communities decide” 54:45 Data centers are the beginning of backlash against tech & AI 55:30 Mark Zuckerberg is only tech CEO who understands the backlash 56:00 Mike Rodgers doesn’t want AIPAC publicly involved in Michigan race 56:45 El-Sayed’s argument is outside interests shouldn’t purchase MI politics 57:30 Plenty of American jews support Israel, but not Netanyahu’s government 58:30 Hakeem Jeffries met privately with Jared Kushner 59:00 This meeting shows the Trump WH preparing for Speaker Jeffries 59:30 Jeffries in impossible position, base wants confrontation with Trump 1:00:30 Jeffries and Kushner SHOULD be talking, communication isn’t betrayal 1:01:45 Is Mark Walter an outlier, or the canary in the coal mine? 1:02:15 After financial crisis, government cracked down on banks 1:02:45 US private credit is now over $1.5 trillion dollar 1:03:30 Life insurance companies have become banks for the ultra wealthy 1:04:30 LIfe insurance companies can operate very differently 1:05:45 You can’t just pull your money out of a life insurance company 1:07:00 The incentives between investment firm & policyholder may not align 1:08:15 Life insurance companies hold $900B in private credit debt 1:08:45 Mark Walter isn’t an outlier, this is how the machine works 1:09:30 If a life insurance company fails, your money can be frozen 1:10:30 There are caps on policyholder protection 1:11:00 Executive Life failed when the junk bond market crashed 1:11:45 Executive Life bonds were bought by Leon Black, who founded Apollo 1:12:15 Insurance isn’t regulated by one agency, it’s multiple agencies and states 1:13:30 Regulators can’t get the picture of the entire machine, just pieces of it 1:14:15 Finance regulators have been siloed off from each other 1:15:45 The real worry here could be inflated valuations 1:21:30 John Kasich joins the Chuck ToddCast 1:23:45 People say they want the middle, then retreat to partisan corners 1:25:00 Voters keep rejecting the party in power 1:27:15 It took six presidential elections to get beyond Lincoln 1:28:15 Democratic socialists are talking about things voters care about 1:29:00 Moderate Dems are staying quiet while socialists have struck a nerve 1:32:30 Rent control doesn’t work, but sounds appealing to voters in NYC 1:33:30 The healthcare system doesn’t keep us healthy, only treats the sick 1:35:00 Healthcare and education have atrophied over the years 1:36:30 Competition drives change in education, teachers union doesn’t want change 1:37:45 How would you handle the public backlash to data centers and big tech? 1:38:15 Data centers should be forced to provide their own power 1:38:45 Customers in Ohio are paying higher rates for data centers in Virginia 1:40:00 Politicians are beholden to special interests before they’re sworn in 1:40:15 Support public financing for elections 1:41:30 The center right & left aren’t coming up with interesting solutions 1:43:00 If we don’t fix the national debt it’s going to hurt everybody 1:44:30 What are we getting from our massive military budget? 1:45:15 Pentagon leaders are highly resistant to change 1:47:00 We aren’t developing new systems & tech well 1:47:30 Only 1% of the defense dollars go to new systems 1:48:30 Don’t need this many nukes, one alone will ruin your day 1:49:15 Trying to change the Pentagon is incredibly difficult 1:49:45 B2 bomber was built with parts all manufactured in different states 1:51:00 It is possible for the Pentagon to be reformed with right political leadership 1:53:30 Moderates have served as the bulwark against the extremes 1:54:15 Who are leaders from the past who electrified the country? 1:56:30 Bill Clinton isn’t a budget balancer without Ross Perot 1:58:00 Ralph Nader also forced change from the outside 1:59:30 People outside the parties will start turning on the tech companies 2:01:15 Could backlash to private equity become a threat to capitalism? 2:01:45 Private equity is now buying up youth sports to raise prices? 2:04:45 Ohio went from #47 to #1 by hiring smart business investors 2:06:15 Private equity can pick the regulators they want to deal with 2:08:00 Is Ohio purple again or is this just a bad year for Republicans? 2:08:30 Over time, Ohio will naturally drift back to swing status 2:09:30 Ohio senate is too close to call 2:12:00 Harder barrier to break: Amy Acton or Vivek Ramaswamy? 2:13:15 Ramaswamy will run into friction with Ohio voters due to his race 2:14:45 Would still bet that Ramaswamy will win 2:16:00 There’s a formula to what makes a good leader 2:17:30 Rural communities are being devastated by drugs & homelessness 2:18:15 There is abject poverty in appalachia 2:19:15 What young leaders have impressed you in the past couple years? 2:21:45 Predictions for Miami’s upcoming football season 2:23:30 Check out the John Kasich Show on SiriusXM 2:25:00 ToddCast Time Machine - 1950, Truman seizes the nation’s railroads 2:25:45 Private rail was the primary transportation system at the time 2:26:15 Congress had given the president the tool to do this 2:27:00 The authority was used during WW1 and WW2 2:27:30 Truman wanted to draft striking rail workers into the military 2:28:00 The strike was settled while Truman was addressing congress 2:28:30 Railroad seizure became routine in the Truman administration 2:29:30 Truman decided country couldn’t risk rail strike during Korean War 2:30:45 Truman’s authority was never really challenged 2:31:15 The rail workers unions couldn’t stop workers from walking off the job 2:32:00 In April 1952 steelworkers were threatening to strike 2:33:30 Steel industry sued Truman and won after he tried to seize it 2:34:00 Rail seizure power was granted by congress, not for steel 2:35:45 Future presidents tried to use this same authority, didn’t always work 2:36:15 Congress needs to take back emergency powers after granting them 2:37:45 Could a future president try to use this power to seize the AI industry? 2:39:30 The lesson is how presidents accumulate power over time 2:40:15 Ask Chuck 2:40:30 Parallels between Natalie Harp and Isabel Lyon? 2:44:45 What gives you pause about Mark Kelly as a candidate? 2:48:30 Could a Democratic wave election change smaller local politics? 2:51:15 What is motivating Darline Graham to run for a full term? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

   August 24, 2026·2h 57min
   Play