Amy Walter chats with Astead Herndon, a national politics reporter for the New York Times and the host of the "The Run-Up" podcast. Amy and Astead grapple with the fact that while voters are overwhelmingly against a Trump-Biden rematch in 2024, it still appears to be the inevitable outcome. Astead notes that we are "careening towards a rematch very fast." The pair discuss the lack of enthusiasm around Biden. Astead makes the point that Vice President Kamala Harris will be the face of the Biden campaign on the road and will be under more scrutiny from the media.

Amy Walter catches up with Republican strategist Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark and founder of the Republican Accountability Project. Sarah also hosts The Focus Group podcast, which brings listeners into wide-ranging conversations with voters.

Sarah and Amy discuss where Donald Trump is already showing his potential strength in a general election [6:16]. Sarah also reflects on what she’s heard in focus groups to explain where Ron DeSantis’ candidacy went wrong [10:04], why evangelical voters aren’t coalescing around Mike Pence, and what to expect from Tim Scott in the coming months [21:22]. Amy also asks Sarah whether a third-party candidate could hurt Biden with swing voters [31:20], and Sarah turns the tables on Amy to ask whether Trump actually could lose the Republican primary. [38:55]

Amy Walter talks with Josh Putnam, a political scientist and consultant known for his expertise on the presidential nominating process. You can read more about it in his blog, frontloadinghq.com.

Amy and Josh discuss the implications of some states’ winner-take-all delegate rules in the Republican primary [6:00] and Democrats’ primary calendar shake-up [12:00], including how much of the changes made to the 2024 calendar stick in 2028 [24:00]. They also discuss why it may be too late for potential GOP candidates like Glenn Youngkin to join the presidential primary [27:00], how to detect early signs of a third-party candidate shaking up the general election [29:00], and how Ron DeSantis could still “win the delegate game.” [35:00]

Amy Walter talks to the one and only Kara Swisher, a highly respected and deeply sourced technology reporter. Kara is currently the host of the podcast On with Kara Swisher, the co-host of the Pivot podcast and an editor-at-large at New York Magazine. Amy and Kara discussed AI's role in the 2024 campaign season. Kara gives some much-needed perspective on the future of AI and whether Washington can or will be able to regulate it. She also explains why we should be more worried about the people that use AI rather than AI itself.

This conversation took place on May 17, 2023

Host:

Amy Walter

Producers:

Kate Wecker

Ally Flinn

Kathryn Hamm

Amy Walter interviews two political science professors, Lynn Vavreck, the Marvin Hoffenberg Professor of American Politics and Public Policy at UCLA, and John Sides, the William R. Kenan, Jr. Chair in the Department of Political Science at Vanderbilt University. Their books, "Identity Crisis: The 2016 Presidential Campaign and the Battle for the Meaning of America" and "The Bitter End: The 2020 Presidential Campaign and the Challenge to American Democracy," examine the current political era and how it has shifted from conflicts over the size of government to identity-inflected issues. This shift is a significant reason politics feels angrier than ever. Amy, John and Lynn discuss how and why this has happened and what we can expect going into the 2024 election. They also explore political leaders' role in breaking down partisan divides and why they believe the current political climate is unlikely to change anytime soon.

Cook Political Report subscribers can access bonus content, full transcripts, and video recordings.

Amy Walter talks to Judy Woodruff, renowned journalist and former anchor of the PBS News Hour. Woodruff discusses her new series, America at a Crossroads, which aims to explore the deep divisions in American politics. She talks about her long and distinguished career in journalism, starting with covering Jimmy Carter's campaign for governor of Georgia in 1970. Amy and Judy discuss whether there can be a solution to America's polarization. They also delve into how Judy stays optimistic, covering these divides.

Amy talked with Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson. Kristen is the founding partner of Echelon Insights, an opinion research and analytics firm. You've likely seen her on CNN, Fox, ABC News or many other political programs. She hosts her Sirius XM program, The Trendline with Kristen Soltis Anderson.

Amy and Kristen started their conversation with the day's current events, the arraignment of former President Trump in a Manhattan courtroom [02:00], and what it means for 2024. They also discussed a DeSantis vs. Trump matchup [07:00], the effect of Roe vs. Wade on the midterms [18:00], millennial voters [21:00] and the state of the political polling [29:00].

Cook Political Report subscribers can access bonus content, full transcripts, and video recordings.

On March 31, The Cook Political Report and National Journal invited its premium subscribers to attend an exclusive event in Washington, DC. That morning, following the news of former president Trump’s indictment in New York, National Journal’s Editor-in-Chief, Jeff Dufour, their White House reporter, George Condon, and Cook Political Report Editor-in-Chief Amy Walter shared their thoughts on the impact on the 2024 race, challenges for Biden’s re-election, and the likelihood of a debt ceiling resolution.

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Episode links:

The Sunday Nightcap with Jeff Dufour from National Journal

In this bonus episode of The Odd Years, Editor-in-Chief of the Cook Political Report, Amy Walter (@amyewalter), chats with the Senior Editor of the US House of Representatives, David Wasserman (@Redistrict), about the release of the historic Cook PVI℠ and what the Partisan Voting Index — first developed by Charlie Cook in 1997 — tells us about how each state and district performs at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole.

The full report is available at cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report subscribers can access full transcripts and video recordings.

Amy talked with Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg. Anna is a senior partner of the polling firm GQR. In 2022, she polled for several high-profile House and Senate campaigns, including Senator Mark Kelly from Arizona, Senator Michael Bennett from Colorado, and Congresswoman Kim Schrier from suburban Seattle.

Amy and Anna started with a conversation about why some polls, including some by Democrats, overestimated Republican strength in 2022 [01:27], and the role abortion and the Dobbs decision played for Democrat successes last year [10:19]. They also discussed 2024 and why Anna thinks regardless of who the GOP nominee may be, the Republican party remains defined by Trump [12:16].

And finally, they talked about the issue of crime and how, in Anna's words, Democrats are "too scared of the left and they're too scared of the right." [31:50]

Cook Political Report subscribers can access bonus content, full transcripts, and video recordings.