6Pages Market Shifts

Hi everyone – welcome to your [AI-generated] 3 Shifts Edition.

Our first Shift looks at the eye-opening growth of X alternatives Threads (owned by Meta) and Bluesky, in the aftermath of the election and the subsequent exodus of “Twitter quitters.” While X remains the leading “digital public square” app, Threads is nearing its size and Bluesky is growing fast.

Next, big tech firms are starting to get regulated like banks. The US CFPB just finalized a rule to put 7 large nonbank companies with digital payment applications under supervision – including Google, Apple, Amazon, PayPal, PayPal-owned Venmo, Block (Cash App), and Zelle.

Finally, a market shift for the coming shopping season – the past few weeks have seen momentum behind wall-mounted smart displays from big tech firms. Big tech is hoping these smart displays become the new hub for the consumer home.

One final note – the 6Pages team is going on hiatus next week so we can spend some quality time over Thanksgiving with family and loved ones. We hope you get to do the same. 

Thank you for being part of the 6Pages community – we are grateful for you.

– Tam

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Hi everyone – welcome to your [AI-generated] 3 Shifts Edition.

Our first Shift looks at the spate of appointments made by Trump since the election. It promises to reshape the federal government and its regulators, and potentially open up M&A transactions next year. 

Next, we delve into the long-awaited launch of Amazon Haul – an ultra-low-priced section of Amazon’s shopping site that goes head-to-head against Temu and Shein. The coming restrictions on the de minimis exemption and Trump’s planned tariffs will, however, change the game once again.

Finally, Google DeepMind just opened up the source code and model weights for its AI protein-prediction model AlphaFold 3. Unfortunately for some, it’s only available for non-commercial use, but it still has the potential to transform drug discovery.

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Enjoy.

– Tam

Hi everyone – what a week! Welcome to your [AI-generated] post-election 3 Shifts Edition. The coming transition will shift the market in many ways, but with control of the House still up for grabs, we’ll try to focus on what we know.

Our first Shift looks at the tension between this week’s market optimism and the expected new tariff regime, which are likely to be inflationary. The US president has powers delegated from Congress to institute tariffs, which means the ball could get rolling on this from Day 1.

Next, the promised tariffs are likely to accelerate the ongoing shift of supply chains away from China. This week saw reports of US shoe and drinkware brands, drugmakers, and chip-equipment manufacturers all making moves to cut their supply chains’ exposure to China.

Finally, this week’s election will shake up the already-strained auto industry even further. Even for US automakers, the election isn’t all good news. Tariffs on vehicles and parts imported from Mexico represent risk, and EV makers will likely take a hit from new policies. Some automakers are already considering doubling down on manufacturing in the US market.

This 3 Shifts Edition represents a milestone for 6Pages – our 700th market shift researched! If you’re enjoying 6Pages and haven’t subscribed yet, please consider joining us. Through this weekend only, get 7% off a subscription for life using the code 6PAGES700: https://www.6pages.com/join

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Enjoy.

– Tam

Hi everyone – welcome to your [AI-generated] 3 Shifts Edition.

Our first Shift delves into the fascinating debate about what is open-source AI. The Open Source Initiative’s release of its official definition this week is causing waves, with Meta – an OSI backer – publicly disagreeing with the definition.

Next, struggles in Boeing and Airbus’ space businesses alongside recent victories by SpaceX are pointing to a reshaping of the US space industry. SpaceX has lately been using its ascendancy to throw its weight around.

Finally, Microsoft-owned GitHub Copilot – the most widely used AI developer tool – announced an array of new updates that will expand Copilot’s universe. Perhaps most notably, Copilot will allow developers to switch among LLMs, loosening its ties to OpenAI. 

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Enjoy.

– Tam

Hi everyone – welcome to your [AI-generated] 3 Shifts Edition.

Our first Shift looks at Amazon and Walmart’s recent expansions of their same-day prescription delivery. While Amazon made its announcement first, Walmart is the one leading the way with free medication delivery for Walmart+ members, in conjunction with grocery orders. 

Next, J&J’s FDA-approved, ketamine-derived drug Spravato will reach $1B in sales this year, growing 55% year-over-year, and could eventually reach $5B. It’s the first example of a psychedelic-based drug finding success, in a market that needs some good news.

Finally, the past couple weeks have seen new entries from Anthropic, Nvidia, and Meta in the realm of capable LLMs. This week, OpenAI looks to be falling behind. But given the pace of the industry, who knows what will happen next week.

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Enjoy.

– Tam

Hi everyone – welcome to your [AI-generated] 3 Shifts Edition.

Our first Shift looks at the recent spate of retailers – e.g. IKEA, Costco, Whole Foods – engaging in consumer price cuts of 10-20%. Price levels are still 21% higher than in pre-pandemic Feb 2020, but they seem to be heading in the right direction.

Next, the battle between WordPress and WP Engine has escalated into a potentially existential crisis for the WordPress ecosystem. While WordPress isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, the perception of the ecosystem as unstable is unlikely to help spur growth.

Finally, all 3 of the major public-cloud players – Amazon, Microsoft, and Google – are making deals to source nuclear energy to meet the needs of their AI data centers. Nuclear power is increasingly being viewed as an attractive source of low-carbon, non-intermittent electricity.

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Enjoy.

– Tam

Hi everyone – welcome to your [AI-generated] 3 Shifts Edition.

Our first Shift looks at the recent launches of tools like OpenAI’s Canvas that are pointing to collaborative AI being what’s next for the field. How people work with AI is perhaps as important as what the underlying model can do.

Next, NotebookLM’s Audio Overview feature can use source documents to generate engaging two-speaker podcasts that are fully synthetic and “shockingly good.” The sheer diversity of use cases we’ve already seen is remarkable.

Finally, we take a look at Apple’s satellite texting, which is now available for non-emergency use. The industry has been moving in the direction of satellite-to-smartphone connectivity for the past few years, and seems to be reaching an inflection point.

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Enjoy.

– Tam

Hi everyone – welcome to your [AI-generated] 3 Shifts Edition.

Our first Shift looks at OpenAI’s for-profit transformation and journey to becoming the next big tech firm. Its transformation is more than just legal structure – it’s a cultural shift from a research organization to becoming a very different “product-first” firm.

Next, news outlets like CNN and Reuters are shifting away from free (ad-supported) and towards paywalled subscriptions. For middle-tier outlets with undifferentiated content, however, the pendulum may be swinging back in search of a lucrative business model that just isn’t there.

Finally, we take a look at what’s next after the dockworker strike. While the two sides have come to a temporary agreement that will take them past the election, the story is not done. While a lot of attention has been paid to wages, automation has been the major sticking point.

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Enjoy.

– Tam

Hi everyone – welcome to your [AI-generated] 3 Shifts Edition.

Our first Shift looks at the price war underway in the new class of weight-loss drugs. Now that supply shortages are easing, the two heavyweights – Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly – are slashing prices and changing business models. Take a read to find out which one is in the lead.

Next, Meta had a swath of AR/VR-related announcements at this week’s Connect 2024. One of the most notable reveals was the Orion AR smart glasses prototype, which builds upon Meta’s success with its Ray-Ban smart glasses and its leadership in open-source AI.

Finally, we take a look at the new digital driver’s licenses, which can now be added to your Apple Wallet or Google Wallet (at least if you’re in California or a growing number of other states). Notably, they can also be used to buy age-restricted products at select retail outlets.

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Enjoy.

– Tam

(1) Facebook & other big tech firms invest in subsea cables to advance global connectivity (1:08). (2) What’s Axel Springer up to with its US media acquisitions? (8:34). (3) Big Oil is ramping up investments in cleantech startups (14:27). Read this 3 Shifts Edition: https://6pag.es/nyx8hg. Sign up to receive free summaries of our deeply researched briefs: 6Pages.com.