As we head to the polls this weekend, election analyst Ben Raue has been calculating the path to victory for the major parties. 

The Coalition needs to pick up 18 seats to win, while if Labor loses four seats, they lose their majority.

But as the electorate shifts in all kinds of surprising ways, the path to victory is becoming increasingly complicated for the major parties.

Today, analyst at The Tally Room Ben Raue, on the seats that will decide the election – and why Victoria matters more than ever.

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Guest: Analyst at The Tally Room, Ben Raue.

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The opening scene of Chris Flynn’s fourth and latest novel, Orpheus Nine, came to him in a dream. Not long after, he had the whole story down from start to finish. On this week’s episode of Read This, Chris and Michael sit down for a conversation about the falsity of certitude, how trauma can re-shape a community, and what The Exorcist, the Bible, and Winnie the Pooh all have in common.

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Paul Bongiorno is one of the 1.2 billion Roman Catholics who mourned the loss of Pope Francis this week.

As he read tribute after tribute of the impact of the Pope’s life, he noticed what wasn’t on the front page – Peter Dutton’s last-minute policy announcements.

“The Pope is a world figure… and of course, it swamped the world’s media, including here in Australia. So it’s not surprising that the death of this pope would overshadow anything that our leaders were doing in the election campaign. In fact, it would blow the campaign out of the water for a few days.”

Today, columnist for The Saturday Paper Paul Bongiorno, on how the Pope’s death changed the election.

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Guest: Columnist for The Saturday Paper, Paul Bongiorno.

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In January, Donald Trump signed an executive order targeting the trans community by banning some medical care for minors.

The move has had a chilling effect across the United States, as doctors withdraw their services for fear of being prosecuted and parents stop accessing medication for their children. 

But many are fighting back. In one red state, we spoke with a doctor driving across state lines, at great personal risk, to give patients the care she says is needed to save their lives.

Now, trans healthcare is also under attack in Australia – with the Queensland government announcing a ban on state-funded gender-affirming care for minors on the same day of Trump’s directive.

Today, 7am’s senior producer Cheyne Anderson, on the ordinary people pushing back against Trump’s war on trans people, and how Queensland became the testing ground for bans in Australia. 

Warning: this episode discusses suicide. 

If you need support, you can call Lifeline on 13 11 14. You can also call QLife on 1800 184 527. Support is also available at:  Switchboard, Queerspace, Transcend Australia, Transgender Victoria and Minus18.

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Guest: 7am’s senior producer Cheyne Anderson

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When Scott Morrison lost his job as prime minister, it was women who sacked him.

A review commissioned by the Liberal Party after the 2022 election found that a decline in support among women was a decisive factor in their loss.

The report outlined ways the party might win women back. But three years on, that hasn’t happened.

Today, contributor to The Saturday Paper Bri Lee, on what women want – and why they’re not getting it from the Liberal Party.

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Guest: Contributor to The Saturday Paper, Bri Lee.

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When Peter Dutton’s son, Harry, fronted the media to talk about his dream of home ownership, it was an attempt by the opposition leader to seem relatable.

The 20-year-old apprentice said he was “saving like mad”, but it’s unlikely he’d be able to save enough in the near future. 

But it seems his father may have failed to anticipate the obvious question: would he help his son with a deposit?

As reporter Mike Seccombe observed, “if he said he wouldn’t help Harry, he would look mean and/or untruthful – and if he said he would help, it could be seen as an admission that despite his promises to fix the housing affordability crisis, his son, and by extension other people struggling to get into the housing market, still couldn't achieve home ownership without parental help”.

Today, national correspondent for The Saturday Paper Mike Seccombe, on why both major parties have policies that will see house prices rise – and what it means for the housing crisis.

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Guest: National correspondent for The Saturday Paper Mike Seccombe

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In a coastal corner of Australia, scientist Saul Griffith has been quietly working away on a plan to turn 500 households completely off fossil fuels. He hopes that what he achieves there can act as a blueprint for the rest of the country. 

But for that to become a reality, the federal government would need to drastically increase their commitment to renewable energy. 

Today, chief scientist at Rewiring Australia, Saul Griffith, on the electrification already underway – and what both sides of politics are promising for our energy future. 

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Guest: Chief scientist at Rewiring Australia Saul Griffith 

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As a child refugee in India, Harini dreamt of making it to Australia to study medicine and become a doctor.

She arrived in Australia in 2013 when she was 10 years old, leaving behind her two siblings and mother.

Harini did not realise her visa status made her different to her classmates until she received a university offer for a biomedical science degree that required her to pay international student fees of nearly $100,000.

After attempting to self-fund her studies and falling a year behind in payments, the university disenrolled Harini in 2023 – four months before she was set to complete her degree.

Today, Harini Rathnakumar on how her promise of a better life in Australia was shattered, and the many others stuck in visa limbo.

This episode was originally published in September 2024.

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Guest: Harini Rathnakumar

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Over four decades Niall Williams has made a name for himself as one of Ireland’s leading novelists. In his latest novel, Time of the Child, Niall returns to the fictional village of Faha, in west Ireland, the setting of his previous book, This Is Happiness. Time of the Child centres on the notion of familial love, and as he explains to Michael in this week’s episode, Niall couldn’t have written it without becoming a grandfather himself.

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At one point during this term of government, Indigenous affairs dominated national debate. Politicians, pundits and the public couldn't stop talking about it. 

But since the Voice referendum failed, it’s become something of a taboo. Labor is eager to move on, while the Coalition is more focused on scoring points than offering a plan. 

Now, with the election weeks away, there are glimpses of what might come next. Labor says it’s about delivering jobs. The Coalition says it’s about cutting waste.

Today, contributor for The Saturday Paper, Ben Abbatangelo, on what the major parties are really offering – and what it all means for First Nations people around the country.

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Guest: Contributor for The Saturday Paper Ben Abbatangelo

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