Briefly in the news from Aotearoa’s political economy in the week to Saturday, December 13:

* National Finance Minister Nicola Willis and former National Finance Minister Ruth Richardson sparred over where and how to debate whether Willis is ‘fudging’ the Budget and ‘failing’ to cut spending enough to slash debt even more.

* Richardson wants the debate hosted on NewstalkZB, while Willis first suggested it be moderated by Juggernaut podcast creator Toby Manhire from The Spinoff, and then by economist and National Party adviser Cameron Bagrie.

* In my view, Toby should moderate a debate broadcast on NewstalkZB and/or any other platform, as long as he could challenge Willis and Richardson about alternatives to austerity, the track record of austerity since 1991, and the assumptions still underpinning their views on public debt.

* In my view, this way this debate is framed is frozen in time in 1991, stuck with the now-wrong assumptions that New Zealand faces being locked out of global markets, that the New Zealand Super Fund does not exist, and that austerity will work to grow the economy again because households can borrow much more to pick up the slack left in the economy as the Government contracts as a share of GDP. (Hear more in the Soliloquy above)

* This week in politics, two new polls showed the governing coalition parties had just enough support to win a second term if an election was held now, largely because support for Te Pāti Māori and Green slumped in the respective polls. (See more below in Chart Packs)

* Elsewhere in politics, the Government proposed two new bills to replace the RMA next year, two years after the National-led coalition repealed the two bills enacted by Labour to replace the RMA, after six years of consultation and deliberation. Also, the Government legislated under urgency and without consultation to cut methane reduction targets.

* This week in the economy, a few more small green shoots poked through, including data showing stronger-than-expected retail spending through credit and debit cards in November and a survey showing slightly increased expansion in manufacturing activity in November. (See more below in Chart Packs)

* However, there was also data showing a contraction in manufacturing volumes (excluding meat and dairy) in the September quarter and a slight fall in truck and car movements in November, as measured by ANZ’s Truckometer series. (See more below in Chart Packs)

* Economists are forecasting Stats NZ will publish GDP data next Thursday showing a GDP rise in the September quarter from the June quarter of about 0.9%, just enough to offset set the 0.9% contraction reported in the June quarter.

* But the recovery faces a new headwind as both Westpac and The Co-operative Bank increased their longer-term fixed mortgage rates by around 30 basis points, following a 60 basis point rise in 30-60 basis point rise in one to two year wholesale ‘swap’ rates in the last six weeks. (See more below in Chart Packs)

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Politics Chart Pack of the week

Economics Chart Pack of the week

My Pick & Mix of links elsewhere this week

* Marty Sharpe for Stuff: ‘Likely to cause injury or death:’ Boarding house used by vulnerable people deemed dangerous

* Kate Newton for RNZ: The day the climate consensus died

* Op-Ed by Bill McKay for The Conversation: Faster, cheaper … but better? The devil in the RMA reform detail

* Deep-dive by Kirsty Johnson for RNZ: ‘Rock and a hard place’: Inside the forced move from gas

* Op-Ed by Auckland Uni’s Tim Welch for The Conversation: Higher speeds lower productivity: what the data shows crash delays really cost Auckland

* Mike Dolan for Reuters: Fade the Fed, global rates are heading higher

Cartoons of the week

Timeline-cleansing nature pic:

Ka kite ano

Bernard

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