The Kākā by Bernard Hickey

The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night featured co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking about geopolitics, the economy, climate change and politics.

It included regular guests Cathrine Dyer and Robert Patman and discussions about climate change science distrust, National’s election policy to cut foreign aid and the near identical fiscal policies offered by National and Labour.

Bernard’s three things of note this week were:

* Labour’s fiscal track is virtually the same as National’s, which means it can’t fix the underfunding it accuses National of in health, transport etc.

* The Greens & Opportunity face a tough choice. If they join a Labour-led coalition they risk being tied to a do-nothing Government.

* If they want to get rid of the current coalition, they could do a supply and confidence deal and sit on the cross benches in opposition on everything else.

Peter’s three things of this week were:

* Peter recommended a deep analysis on Zionism and what it means in The Atlantic (gift). He does not always agree with the slant taken by the writer but the last line is: ‘The work of Zionism will remain incomplete until Jews and Arabs live in peace in the land that both have the right to call home.’

* ⁠Keep an eye on the Russian pneumonic plague death and associated cover-up. Did Russia ever really withdraw its bio-weapons programme. Peter has an anecdote about a friend’s husband who died young after leading US initiative to clean up Soviet bioweapons.

* Death of Jeffrey Archer — total ratbag. Wonderful obituary in The Times (gift) which says rather nicely: ‘His elastic relationship with the truth made telling his life’s story a tricky task, since it became clear that nothing Archer ever said about himself could be accepted without independent corroboration.’

The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.

The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in last year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.

Listeners’ Choice nominations can be made at the NZ Podcast Awards site between now and 9th October, and then voting on the Listeners’ Choice award is open between 12th October - 26th November.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free.)

Ngā mihi nui.

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

Thank you Maurizio Piglia, Brian Rathbone, Ken Howell, Tim, Tony Pomfret, and many others for tuning into my live video with Elliot Crossan! Join me for my next live video in the app.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

I had a great chat this evening with the University of Otago’s Michael Swanson about MMP and vote-splitting after he produced this excellent substack post:

The Bastardisation of MMP

Thank you to everyone who tuned into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night featured co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking about geopolitics, the economy, climate change and politics.

It included regular guest Cathrine Dyer, plus special guests Auckland University Emeritus Professor Jane Kelsey, intensive care specialist Dr David Galler, who also publishes this substack david Galler, and Dr Malcolm Mulholland.

Jane talked about the challenge to New Zealand’s FTA with the EU by Both ENDS because of New Zealand’s climate policy backsliding.

David and Malclom talked about the ongoing crises in the health system because of decades of underfunding. They are doing The Roady on Public Health.

Bernard’s three things of note this week were:

* The Government and RBNZ are underestimating the chilling effect on the economy of falling house prices and falling real wages.

* Labour’s commitment to cap the size of Government at 33% of GDP means it can’t deal with our housing and health crises because Crown spending is already at 33% and an ageing population naturally pushes up NZ Super and health spending. Staying under the cap could only be done with massive cuts to other benefits and/or education spending.

* It’s great to see the climate backsliding come home to roost in the Both ENDS’ application to cancel NZ’s FTA with the EU. We’re in the ‘find out’ stage of ‘f*** around and find out’ strategy.

Peter’s three things of this week were:

1.⁠ ⁠Daniel Dale of CNN on his 10-years of factchecking Donald Trump: ‘His relentless dishonesty has become a central feature of US and world politics.’

2.⁠ ⁠Russia threatens Europe over Kaliningrad. FT-$ (gift): “Russia will be ready to use the entire arsenal of forces and capabilities at its disposal, including nuclear weapons, in order to defend its territory should Nato countries undertake any attempt aimed at isolating the Kaliningrad Region from the rest of the country,” the document stated.

3.⁠ ⁠An astounding White House statement that immigration from majority Muslim countries has fallen 96 percent from 2024.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.

The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in last year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.

Listeners’ Choice nominations can be made at the NZ Podcast Awards site between now and 9th October, and then voting on the Listeners’ Choice award is open between 12th October - 26th November.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free.)

Ngā mihi nui.

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

Treasury formally fired the starter’s gun on the economic and fiscal debates in Election 2026 today, publishing its statutorily required opening-of-the-books in the form of the Pre-Election Fiscal Update or PREFU.

It’s supposed to give all the parties the same level playing field of economic and budget assumptions from which to formulate (hopefully) coherent and legally sound sets of policies. It’s supposed to enable voters to compare apples with apples, without having to worry about parties using wild and sneaky assumptions to make their policies look good. It’s also supposed to remove or at least reduce some of the risks that a winning Government can dump its promises straight after the election because it ‘opened the hood and found the previous owner had blown the engine’.

Treasury’s PREFU 2026 appeared to deliver some ‘good’ news for the incumbent Government, and most other initial reports have focused on the earlier surpluses and lower borrowing as a boost for the Government. RNZ reported the PREFU’s lower deficits and bigger forecast surpluses had given Finance Minister Nicola Willis a ‘pre-election reprieve.’ Stuff referred to ‘less debt, bigger surplus coming in PREFU,’ while 1News wrote about how the PREFU provided a ‘better picture for the Government’s books.’

A set of accounts that include a profit and loss account, a cash flow account and a balance sheet are designed to be considered in the round. A two-dimensional snapshot of one line at the bottom of one of the accounts can appear to prove something, but a closer look at all the lines of all three sets of accounts provides a more three-dimensional and nuanced view.

For example, here’s the ‘P&L’ part of the accounts in the PREFU, which refers to the Operating Balance and other versions of it called the OBEGAL (Operating Balance Excluding Gains and Losses) and the OBEGALx, which excludes losses from ACC. The current Government says the OBEGALx is the best measure. Labour says the OBEGAL is the one. The pure ‘Operating Balance’ used to be the standard.

The PREFU shows it actually was already in a surplus of $1.136 billion in the just completed 2025/26 financial year, much better than the $9.884 billion deficit forecast in May. The Operating Balance is then forecast to rise to a surplus of $16.7 billion by 2030/31. The Government’s preferred measure, the OBEGALx, is forecast to be in a surplus of $4.0 billion by 2028/29, an improvement from the $2.6 billion forecast for 2028/29 in the May Budget.

So why did the ‘bottom line’ ‘improve’ since May?

The implication of the ‘better’ (bigger) surplus is the Government ‘managed the books’ better and produced a higher ‘profit.’ But, as Treasury pointed out, the improvement was largely due to the side-effect of what most consider a bad thing: inflation. Higher inflation increased nominal incomes and spending, which in turn lifted some taxpayers into higher tax brackets and flowed through into higher GST and corporate tax receipts. This is what’s called ‘Fiscal Drag’ and it’s something Willis has already referred to as a bad thing that could be reversed to provide some ‘tax relief.’

Profit is, in theory, a better measure of success than a simple look at the net cashflow reports and forecasts. They showed the net core Crown operating cash flow is expected to be in surplus next financial year (2026/27) and hit a surplus of $13.3 billion by 2030/31.

But that can be misleading too, because it doesn’t take into account whether the Government is spending on repairs and maintenance in a way that at least matches depreciation, in order to keep the Crown’s assets in good shape.

There are a couple of measures of capital expenditure or investment in the accounts.

Page 118 lays out the forecast spending, including the unspecified and unconfirmed stuff. It shows significant falls in confirmed investment in Health, Housing and Transport.

This is reflected in this chart showing a fall in actual investment from over $15 billion in 2023/2024 at the tail end of the Labour Government to around $12 billion in 2025/26. It is forecast to keep falling from this current year, especially once the unspecified ‘capital allowances and unallocated contingencies’ are identified. They could happen. They might not. The last three years shows they didn't.

This consolidated measure is particularly useful. It shows capital expenditure forecast to fall from $4.6 billion this year to $2.7 billion by 2030/31.

Then there is the balance sheet showing snapshots for forecast assets, liabilities and net worth in the coming years.

Debt is the headline. But what about assets and net worth?

The Government is totally focused on running surpluses (profits) and reducing net debt, but doesn’t talk much about the Government’s assets and net worth. They show a more rounded and much healthier position than the Government likes to paint.

The Crown’s net worth is forecast to be stable at around 40% of GDP in the next couple of years, before beginning to rise again slowly.

So a more rounded picture of the PREFU is that the Government is choosing to keep sinking lids on spending growth in health, education, transport and housing, in order to keep pressing down on the size of Government to under 30% of GDP. It can expect cash and operating surpluses by the end of the decade by allowing fiscal drag to pull in the taxes, and for limited capital expenditure to keep the borrowing down.

And the (unmeasured) health, work, justice & housing liabilities?

Yet a fully rounded picture would include some sort of measure of the true liabilities of not investing in public health services, social housing and the health and wellbeing of our poorest, youngest and most vulnerable.

The accounts don’t measure the effects of poor health on productivity. Or the lost productivity of not investing infrastructure. Or the likely extra cost of yet-bigger prisons and hospitals to house those cast aside when young and being raised by homeless, stressed, cash-poor families. By the end of the forecast period, the Government expects to invest $700 million on Defence and Corrections, but $6 million on social housing investment.

The headlines might say the books look good.

But the pictures and scenes at ground zero of our political economy tell a different story. I walked back from the Treasury lockup this morning along Lambton Quay. There were homeless people asleep in front of some of the shop windows of the capital’s ‘Golden Mile.’ There was not a single crane to be seen building a new high-rise anywhere in the CBD.

One measure of Crown investment

Here’s one measure of how the Government’s management of the Crown accounts has filtered down to the real economy in Wellington in recent years. The index shows the Crane Index in Wellington less than a third its 2021 peak. Auckland’s Crane Index is about half its early 2022 peak.

Here’s the tables comparing recent crane activity in Auckland and Wellington. The actual crane counts tell the relative stories. There are 58 operating in Auckland and six in Wellington, including none in residential, aged care, data centres, health, civil or education. Two of Wellington’s cranes are upgrading its ferry terminal (albeit delayed) for (delayed) new ferries. One was repairing the Moa Point facility. And another was building a new building in the Parliament complex.

The Government has a strong balance sheet, low net interest/dividend costs and clear shortages in health care, housing and education. Yet it is choosing not to invest and employ because it has an ideological view that Governments should always be trying to be smaller than 30% of GDP (for National), or 33% for Labour.

Cheers

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night featured co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking about geopolitics, the economy, climate change and politics with regular guests Robert Patman and Cathrine Dyer, plus special guest:

* Former NZ Herald Editor Gavin Ellis, who talked about his article on the Official Information Act, the future of media and Nicky Hager’s new book Dirty Work.

During the show:

Bernard mentioned this chart on the recent collapse in visits to US mainstream news sites

Gavin mentioned this example of officials ‘lying in unison’ from 2003 and Bernard pointed to this Audrey Young article in the NZ Herald on the issue. He also talked about a lack of party policies on media so far in the campaign. He wrote about that here

Peter talked about Donald Trump and Javier Milei attacking the UN at the UN, referring to this article in The Guardian.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.

The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in last year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free.

Ngā mihi nui.

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

The top news, analysis and commentary about housing, climate & poverty from Aotearoa’s political economy today include:

* New surges in diesel prices towards $4/litre and a new jump in fixed mortgage rates towards 6% are set to generate another cost-of-living shock and amplify New Zealand voter concerns about inflation and the management of the economy in the remaining six weeks before our election on November 7.

* That’s after US President Donald Trump and other Republican leaders came out in favour of a ban on US diesel exports yesterday, hoping that diverting up to 30% of global diesel supplies now provided by US refiners will reduce US diesel prices before US mid-term elections on November 3. Average US diesel prices have catapulted over US$6.50/gallon in recent days and turbocharged US Federal Reserve and market concerns about inflation and the need for higher interest rates.

* Diesel is a cost for nearly half of the items in the US Consumer Price Index and is now trading at the equivalent of US$200/barrel because refining profit margins have spiked in recent weeks. That’s because Middle East oil shipments were choked off even more this week and Ukrainian drone strikes have destroyed nearly half of Russia’s refineries. Russia has been the swing supplier of diesel into Europe and Asia for most of the last decade, helping to soften price spikes. It has been replaced by US exports since March. (See Chart of the day below)

* Meanwhile, US Treasury bond yields jumped more than 18 basis points to 20-year highs overnight after a poor bond auction, and as financial markets built up their expectations for another Fed hike next month to 70% from 55% on Tuesday. The key 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 5.13%, while the 5-year yield rose over 5.01% for the first time since 2006. The jump was the biggest since Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff shock in April 2024.

* This rise in US bond yields is important for New Zealand home-buyers because they underpin longer-term fixed mortgage rates here. The rise of 50-60 basis points in US yields this month has yet to flow through to New Zealand’s most-popular 18-month and two-year fixed rates, which have settled around 5.5% so far in September. They could easily hit 6% if banks pass on higher global yields.

* In good news for New Zealand’s emissions track and long-run electricity prices, the Government’s coalition members acknowledged yesterday they would not be able to sign a deal to install an LNG import terminal at Port Taranaki before the election.

(I’ve decided to open this up in full for all early. Become a paying subscriber to see the full detail and analysis below every day, and get access to my videos and podcasts. Here’s an introductory offer for the first year for new subscribers. Paying subscribers support me to do the work and get it out through my various public channels, including YouTube, RNZ, 1News and NZ Herald)

My Pick n’ Mix Sixes

Top Six Scoops & Breaking this morning

* Tess Brunton for RNZ: Training for firefighting crews on real fires halted last year

* Shayne Currie for NZ Herald-$: Up to 60 jobs set to go at Auckland software firm after ministerial veto of $50m project

* Thomas Coughlan for NZ Herald: Hipkins considering pushing pause on replacing frigates, but defends Five Eyes

* Jonathan Milne for Newsroom Pro-$: Supermarkets pressured confectionary company to ‘go cold’ on small retailers

* Azaria Howell for NZ Herald-$: Leaked doc details ‘significant’ change at Govt department, exit from regions

* Reuters: New Zealand says China is its most persistent state-backed cyber threat

Top Six Deep-Dives, Features, Investigations & Commentary

* Analysis by Toby Manhire for The Spinoff: How New Zealanders really feel about tax – exclusive poll results

* Reportage by Mary Argue for RNZ: Pahīatua Medical Centre staff visibly under pressure ‘strung out, tired, sick of it’

* Deep-dive by Rowan Quinn for RNZ: Post code lottery still alive and well in health sector

* Interview with Nicky Hager by Toby Manhire for The Spinoff: Nicky Hager and Dirty Work, 24 hours on.

* Investigation by Matt Nippert for NZ Herald-$: NZ’s highest-paid charity bosses

* Column by Raf Manji for Interest: ‘We shouldn’t go into the next crisis with an alternative to bank-mediated stimulus that nobody has even looked at.’

Charts of the day: Why a US diesel export ban matters

NZ$ diesel was already 50c ‘behind’ wholesale BEFORE export ban

Cartoon of the day: Yippee for the wazoo

Ka kite anō

Bernard

PS: I update this post online later in the morning, including my full more detailed Picks n’ Mixes on housing, climate and poverty, a full chart pack and more cartoons. It is only available to paying subscribers, who are able to comment and use The Kākā’s chat room.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

National, Labour, NZ First, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori have all released policies for major state intervention in the supermarkets sector to break up or challenge the duopoly of Foodstuffs (Pak n’ Save, New World & Four Square) and Woolworths in recent weeks.

National and NZ First have proposed breaking up Foodstuffs into separate competing Pak n’ Save and New World/Four square chains, while leaving Woolworths intact.

Labour has proposed forcing both Foodstuffs and Woolworths to run their wholesale operations independently from their retail stores in a structural separation that echoes the breakup of Telecom into Chorus and Spark.

The Greens have proposed to break up the supermarkets duopoly and force the sale of 120 stores and distribution centres from both Foodstuffs and Woolworths to a new state-owned competitor called KiwiMart, at a cost to buy and invest in the new operation of $2.8 billion.

Te Pāti Māori has proposed providing a $800-$1000 per year tax credit for people earning less than $60,000 per year to be able to afford to buy eight weeks worth of kai. It would cost $2.8 billion a year in lost tax revenues. It has also proposed the Crown invest $100 million to support the creation of Māori run competitors to the duopoly.

I discussed Labour’s proposal on Monday with Labour Commerce and Consumer Affairs Spokesperson Arena Williams and Monopoly Watch NZ founder Tex Edwards.

The full discussion is in the video above.

Tex’s position on what is needed to foster real competition that generates lower prices for consumers includes this checklist of necessary conditions:

* Distribution centre competition: Most competitive tension occurs at the distribution-centre level. It is inevitable that new centres will need to be built.

* Scale competition: Modelling shows that a minimum of approximately 18–22% revenue market share is needed to deliver a pathway to cost-out reductions.

* Geographic competition: Competition is currently thwarted because whole suburbs and districts are served by only one banner. This needs to be resolved.

* Data break-up and open access: It is 2026 — data and digital access are now as important as geographic distribution, particularly with the emergence of robotic, AI-driven distribution ecosystems built for direct home delivery in the dry-goods segment.

* Supplier designation There is supplier appetite for change within the existing market structure, and part of the excess margin is shared with the supermarkets. Given the well- documented problems the third challenger, The Warehouse, had with suppliers, this issue is critical.

* Fresh capital New stakeholders are needed to drive change and prevent inertia. Without fresh capital, the existing status quo will simply resume.

* Challenger branding Consumer inertia is always a challenge for new entrants. Clearly explaining different market structures is crucial to winning scale and efficiencies.

* Like-for-like segmental competition: The Sense report outlines two proposals for a Foodstuffs break-up. One option amounts to a behind-the-scenes voluntary undertaking that is too generous to the Pak’nSave owners, who would go on to dominate the budget segment. Pak’nSave needs to compete with a like-for-like offering — which is why this banner needs to be broken up. Foodstuffs’ own 2006 submissions confirmed this point.

* Pathway to third-party experts: The Commerce Commission has a department that has been studying supermarket competition for over six years and has relevant expertise. It is essential that this team be given the time and resources to determine the best possible way forward.

Here’s the Monopoly Watch post on that: Te Pāti Māori policy document

In my view, neither the Labour or National plans allow for the creation of a big-enough new operator with access to equally cheap wholesale supplies, or are able to break the local monopolies held by Pak n’ Save stores in particular. National’s plan doesn’t break up the wholesale arms from the retail arms of either Foodstuffs or Woolworths.

Labour’s plan doesn’t create the large-enough new competitor to Pak’ n Save stores to make a difference. It is relying on existing New World, Four Square and other independents scaling up. I think that would result in slow and patchy competition that leaves the Pak’ n Save stores with their local monopolies intact.

The difference between this plan and Labour’s successful intervention in telecommunications was that it required regulation of some prices (interconnection fees), regulation of transferrable mobile numbers, state investment in UFB, and the sale of (arguably) cheap mobile spectrum that enabled the creation of a true and eventually large third competitor of Two Degrees, which was able to compete the mobile prices of Spark and Vodafone (now OneNZ) lower over a decade. Tex was a co-founder of Two Degrees.

The Greens’ proposal is closer to the necessary conditions of a big-enough competitor to Pak n’ Save with enough capital to compete and grow, and with the ability to break the local monopolies. Although there is a risk KiwiMart simply takes over the Pak’ n Save monopolies of the stores it buys, and/or runs the chain to maximise dividends, similar to the state-controlled Genesis, Meridian & Mercury.

I aim to do more of these Election Hoons on this and other topics.

I welcome suggestions in the comments below. Paying subscribers are able to comment.

Become a paying subscriber to see the full detail and analysis in my regular emails, and get access to all my videos and podcasts. Here’s an introductory offer for the first year for new subscribers. Paying subscribers support me to do the work and get it out through my various public channels, including YouTube, RNZ, 1News and NZ Herald.

cheers

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

Mōrena. The six things to know this morning in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate are:

* Labour has proposed forcing both Foodstuffs and Woolworths to run their wholesale operations independently from their retail stores. That appears to gazump National’s plan to only break up Foodstuffs, although that plan was itself a gazumping of Labour’s initial idea for a vague ban on price gouging.

* The trouble is both Labour and National have been here before, threatening to regulate or breakup the duopoly, but with little real action that reduces prices for consumers and eases the cost of living pain that voters say is their main concern in Election 2026.

* Also, both ideas are already under concerted attack by vested interests, including big political donors, and will have to get through yet more official reviews and overcome intense undisclosed lobbying that is now endemic throughout various levels of Government.

* In my view, it will be tough to unshackle this major part of our economy, along with other captured sectors such as electricity, gas, banking and insurance, without proper reform of our lobbying and political disclosure regimes, as author Max Rashbrooke points out in the interview above on his report with Lisa Marriott about lobbying published last Thursday..

* In election news over the weekend, the Greens proposed the removal of ‘ratchet up’ clauses in commercial lease rent reviews so rents can be lowered, as well as raised. The Greens would also give councils the power to auction leases on shops that have been empty for more than a year.

* Also: NZ First proposed refocusing the health system on prevention through primary health care, rather than prevention, although the new specifics were mostly offering vitamin C & D treatments; and, National proposed ending screen use in early childhood education centres and setting limits in primary schools.

How our captured economy is choking our progress

Here we go again.

Yet another set of apparently seriously proposals to break the duopoly control of one of the economy’s key sectors, but with the very real prospects neither will get past the ‘official review’ stage or work in practice after intense lobbying and interference within (and without) Government by well-ensconced vest ed interests.

Anyone focused on the here and now would see the National and Labour announcements over the last week as the final confirmation that ‘something’ is going to happen. But we’ve been here before, a few times.

Labour, with Chris Hipkins as its Prime Minister, bailed out of a structural separation in groceries when in Government in 2023 after a Commerce Commission market study and another MBIE study. National, with Willis as Finance Minister, has also bailed out of significant competition and structural reform in electricity and banking.

So why are incumbent interests so powerful?

I spoke on Thursday with Max Rashbrooke about the unregulated nature of lobbying in New Zealand and the way vested interests are quietly intertwined with the machinery of Government, both through policy and legislation often being outsourced to the affected industries, and uncontrolled revolving doors for executives and regulators.

The end result is New Zealanders spend more as a share of their income on food than Australia, the United States, Canada, Germany, Ireland, Norway and Singapore. Only France and Japan are higher (See chart of the day below).

The full interview with Max is above.

The backlash gets personal

Owners of Pak n’ Save and New World stores have launched concerted attacks on National’s proposed Foodstuffs breakup plan on social media and the mainstream media, as 1News, The Post-$ & RNZ reported.

Meanwhile, to indicate the forces of transparency against vested interests is on the back, the scoop of the day is from Andrea Vance for The Post-$ from Friday, in which she reports:

“The Government has quietly mapped out a post-election overhaul of the Official Information Act, including tougher refusal rules and charging requesters, after research put the system’s “true cost” at up to $750 million a year.”

Here’s the Ministry of Justice website section on the rewrite and here’s the 47-page briefing paper and cost estimate cited by Justice.

Chart of the Day: Food spending as a share of income

Election 2026: The moment that started the campaign

A first-person account of how a man died in Waikato Hospital’s ED in July after a nine-hour wait electrified a debate about health in Auckland on Thursday night, as detailed in these excellent deep-dive reports from 1News & RNZ. I see this event as the first agenda-setting event of the 2026 Election campaign, which will start in earnest next Thursday when the current Parliament adjourns. (Pictures above and below. Tayla spoke at the event. See quote of the day below.)

Quote of the day: Her dad died in an overloaded ED

“In addition to the hospital being over 100 percent capacity, they were also four doctors down and two nurses down during the afternoon shift.

“Mum received a call from the hospital at one in the morning, saying he had collapsed and they were doing CPR and to get to the hospital as quickly as we could.” Tayla Horsburgh via RNZ.

The Best of the Rest via my Top Six Picks n’ Mixes

Scoops & News Breaking elsewhere this morning

* Nicholas Jones for Stuff: An ambulance boss’s criminal convictions - and a grieving mother’s fight for tougher rules

* Deep-dive by Tim Brown for RNZ: Heartbroken families speak out against safety rule changes

* Marc Daalder for Newsroom Pro-$: Ministers axed clean energy rule from gas loan scheme at last minute

* Andrea Vance for The Post-$: High-profile lawyer hired for mayor’s battle with residents – ratepayers pick up the tab

* Mike White for The Press-$: ‘Nothing more than PR theatre’: The people behind Santana Minerals’ community liaison group

* Andrea Vance for The Sunday Star Times-$: ‘Betrayal’: Government U-turn strips fishing protections won in the wake of Rena

Deep-Dives, Features, Investigations & Commentary

* Mihingarangi Forbes for her substack: Marokopa: They were telling the truth ‘For years, Storm and Jubilee Dawson warned agencies about their missing siblings. No one believed them but a new report into Tom Phillips documents their efforts and the failures of our system.’

* Isaac Davison for Stuff: The Report Card: Did the Government fulfil its economic promises?

* Deep-dive by Laurie Winkless for Forbes: Is The Hydrogen Train Hype Running Out Of Steam?

* Deep-dive by Nina Brown for Stuff: ‘Cigarettes have this aura’: The young Kiwis smoking to quit vaping

* Interview with Chloe Swarbrick by Anna Thomas for RNZ: ‘I was a massive nerd’: A road trip with Chloe Swarbrick Swarbrick says she was a “Lisa Simpson character”. “I’m only just shedding that now.”

* Column for The Post-$: Richard Harman: The panic behind National’s supermarkets announcement

Cartoon of the Day: Dance Cossack, Dance!

Cheers

Bernard

PS: Here’s the full Picks n’ Mixes with a fuller Chart Pack and more cartoons in my Early Bird post published online only for subscribers this morning.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe