This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night featured co-hosts Bernard Hickey & Peter Bale talking with regular guests Cathrine Dyer from Wellington and Robert Patman in Dunedin about geopolitics, the economy, climate change and politics.

This edition also included discussions with Arab News Editor in Chief Faisal Abbas and disinformation researcher Sanjana Hattotuwa.

This week:

* Bernard and Peter began with a chat about the Government’s Budget delivered yesterday afternoon.

* Bernard, Peter and Cathrine then talked about the Government’s failure to disclose lobbyist contact on behalf of Z Energy and Fonterra with the PM’s Office over a rewrite of climate laws that shut down a climate lawsuit against Z Energy, Fonterra and others. See the background on that here.

* Then Bernard, Peter, Robert talked with Faisal Abbas about the Iran conflict.

* Bernard and Peter finished with a discussion with Sanjana about disinformation flooding into New Zealand in election year, including his report this week on how it has spread and deepened since 2023. We also mentioned this Microsoft report from 2022 that showed on page 79 how Russian troll farms flooded 30% more anti-vaxx disinformation into New Zealand in late 2021 and early 2022 than pumped into Australia and the United States.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.

The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in last year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free.

Ngā mihi nui.

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

Finance Minister has unveiled a ‘sugar-free’ and ‘tough love’ Budget that achieves a surplus by 2028/29, a year earlier than previously forecast in December, thanks to Treasury forecasting a short energy shock that allows GDP growth to average 2.7% over the next four years.

Thank you Cheese (Ashley Cheeseman), Kath, Suzanne Jansson-Bush, Steve Robinson, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided this afternoon to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR), but it was a much closer run thing than everyone expected and the central bank has changed its forecasts to seeing three OCR hikes by the end the year. Most economists now expect three hikes in a row on July 8, September 2 and October 28, just in time for the OCR to be 3.0% by the election on November 7.

For the first time, the Reserve Bank detailed how each of the six members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted, including that the three outside members, Prasanna Gai, Carl Hansen and Hayley Gourley, voted for a 25 basis point hike to 2.5%. The three Reserve Bank members, Governor Anna Breman, Assistant Governor Karen Silk and Chief Economist Paul Conway all voted to hold. Breman then used her casting vote as chair of the committee to ultimately hold.

Usually, the MPC has seven members, but has yet to appoint a Deputy Governor.

In the presentation above, I went through the details of the Monetary Policy Statement, the following news conference (seen below) and the key details.

I also talked about my questions and the answers in the news conference on:

* whether the Phillips Curve was still operating (21:14);

* what the Governor would say to unemployed youth about the scarring effect of four years of high unemployment (38:32);

* what the effects on inflation have been of higher inflation on regulated prices; and,

* whether the Reserve Bank’s lowering of its house price inflation forecast would generate a negative wealth effect.

Thank you Ian Dunn, Tanya Wintringham, AK, and many others for tuning into my live video! Join me for my next live video in the app.

Here’s the PDF of the presentation I used above.

Cheers

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe