The Kākā by Bernard Hickey

The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night featured co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking about geopolitics, the economy, climate change and politics with regular guests Robert Patman and Cathrine Dyer, plus special guests:

* Technology commentator, futurist and substacker Ben Reid to talk about AI, data centres and future of everything; and,

* WWF-NZ Climate law and policy advisor Teall Crossen to talk about climate dis/mis-information.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.

The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in last year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free.

Ngā mihi nui.

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night featured co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking about geopolitics, the economy, climate change and politics with regular guests Robert Patman and Cathrine Dyer, plus special guests:

* Columnist on international affairs for The Guardian, Paul Taylor, who talked about the rise of AFD in Germany, and the diplomatic situation around Gaza and Europe; and,

* Investigative journalist for Stuff, Paula Penfold, who wrote a Must Read article this week for Stuff on the polycrisis in our hospital system. Her reporting on the hospital crisis also powered this week’s episode of ‘Paddy Gower has Issues’ for 3Now. She publishes her own substack called Not The News - with Paula Penfold

This week’s skateboarding dog story was this extraordinary video of Philippines' Defence Minister Gilberto Teodoro, who was speaking up for smaller nations and international law at a forum in Korea when a staff member handed him a note from a Chinese official about the South China Sea.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.

The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in last year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free.

Ngā mihi nui.

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night featured co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking about geopolitics, the economy, climate change and politics with special guests, including:

* International affairs expert Dr Geoffrey Miller, the author of the Gulf States Insights substack, talking about the recent Mecca Agreement; and,

* Andy Reisinger, an Associate Professor at Australian National University, and lead author of the mitigation chapter of a new UN Environment Programme (UNEP)report titled: Limiting Overshoot, which finds the climate is set to overshoot the 1.5°C of global warming the world agreed not to go over, and will need to cool it down ASAP.

Regular guests Cathrine Dyer and Robert Patman took a break this week, but will be back next year.

During the podcast, we pointed to Geoffrey’s most recent piece:

Also, Peter referred to this New Yorker podcast during the discussion:

The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.

The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in last year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free.

Ngā mihi nui.

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

Mōrena. I’m back after a rest and aim to publish on weekdays from now until the end of this election year. I’m also back for this week’s Hoon at 5pm. Here’s the key news today in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty.

The Reserve Bank hiked the OCR by 25 basis points to 2.75% yesterday, as expected by the ‘wisdom of the crowds’ in financial markets and most economists. It said it had to hike to further suppress employment and wage growth in order to reduce inflation, even though that inflation was caused by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and Donald Trump, and rate hikes won’t change that fuel inflation one jot.

The central bank kept its forecast track for the OCR broadly unchanged from its May forecast, which surprise many in markets who had expected the track to rise a bit. So the kiwi dollar fell more than half a cent to 58.4 USc and the two-year wholesale ‘swap’ interest rate fell around 10 basis points to 3.69%.

But none of these things matter much in the long run, or even in the short run. This rate hike was unfair, unnecessary and counterproductive, in my view. It should force us to re-examine the framework under which our economy has been run for nearly 40 years, without success. We’ve had long enough to ‘suck it and see.’ We know now. It just sucks. (See more detail, analysis and charts below the fold, and in the video above)

I’ve also just been interviewed on RNZ’s Morning Report. Here’s the link to the interview in full and embedded here:

Elsewhere in the news this morning:

* Over 200 jobs are at risk in Taranaki after Methanex announced its long-expected final decision to close its gas-to-methanol plant because the gas is running out;

* Labour, the Greens and Opportunity parties jointly pledged last night to extend the living wage across all workers in the state sector if elected;

* The edges of the Government’s ‘move-on’ orders are set to be softened as it emerged yesterday all parties want to change the bill to exclude 14-17-year-olds that are homeless; and,

* There is now no realistic path to stop the climate by warming less than 1.5 degrees, according to a new UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report out overnight.

(I’m opening up today’s email, podcast and video to everyone immediately given the public interest in yesterday’s decision. Thanks in advance to paying subscribers. I’ll do this as much as I can before the election.)

An unfair, unnecessary & counterproductive rate hike

Just as our political economy crawls out from another winter of discontent and stagnation, the Reserve Bank has tightened monetary policy for the second time in two months. It may yet tighten for a third time 10 days before the election. It says it needs to further reduce its stimulus to the economy, event though is already being squeezed by the sinking lid of a Government trying to cut three percentage points of GDP from its spending. The RBNZ portrayed the hike as a little more pain now, rather than even more pain later.

‘This decision reduces the risk that the OCR needs to increase by more later. RBNZ

But in my view, this hike will deepen the scars on a generation that grew up and joined the workforce during and after covid. Over a half of all 15-19-year olds in the workforce, 93,000 teenagers, are either out of a job or need more hours of work or jobs. Nearly a quarter of all 20-24-year olds are in the same under-utilised position. More than 4,000 fully unemployed and/or too-sick-to-work 18-19-year olds are about to have their benefits taken away and be forced to live at home. Real average hourly wages are falling. House prices are falling. It doesn’t feel like an economy that is heating up to the point where it’s generating too much inflation from wage increases and demand-drive price hikes. It feels like kicking an economy that’s already down.

Yet the Reserve Bank has just done what 36-years of inflation-targeting independent central banking orthodoxy set it up for and directed it to do. Again, it has used its one blunt instrument, the Official Cash Rate (OCR), to squash employment and economic activity down in order to reduce its one blunt target, the annual inflation rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) , to somewhere between 1-3%, from its most-recently measured level of 4.1%. Job done.

We know the orthodoxy well and are all well trained to accept it. The Reserve Bank Act (1989) made the central bank independent and responsible for managing the economy in the short(ish) run to keep inflation low and stable. Achieve this, the theory goes, and everything else will fall into a place of full(ish) employment and prosperity. Consumers will spend because their wages usually grow faster than prices. Investors will invest because they’re confident of making bigger profits in a growing economy. The employment and wage growth will look after itself. Job done.

The other half of the orthodoxy, as is that all the Government needs to do is get out of the way, create free markets, run balanced budgets and reduce public borrowing over the longer run to enable low interest rates to do the work of encouraging private investment in businesses, technology, infrastructure and the rest. The theory is these private investors and households will make better, more efficient and ultimately more productive choices than the Government, in the long run. In theory, all this will allow the Government to be smaller and hand over tax cuts to households and businesses, who will then do an even better and bigger job of growing the economy.

We all know what New Zealand’s major problems are. We don’t have enough healthy and affordable houses to rent and own. We don’t invest nearly enough in building, maintaining and staffing those houses and the hospitals, public transport and schools needed for us all to be healthy, employed and productive. And then we need to invest much, much more in technology, science, our businesses, infrastructure and training to increase our output per hour worked. Only then, will Aotearoa’s people be pulled out of a spiralling cost-of-living crisis by higher wages that can buy much more ample and relatively cheaper goods and services.

We all know what that requires. More investment and employment in housing, hospitals, schools, buses, trains, infrastructure, new companies, bigger companies and more valuable and plentiful goods and services. We know what the long-term failure to do that has meant. We can feel it and see it everywhere, especially this winter. Hospital Emergency Departments have been overwhelmed. Record numbers of people are homeless. At least three froze to death in the open this year. This does not feel like an over-stimulated economy. It feels like an economy labouring under a failed framework designed for 1989, and which has clearly failed.

Discouraging investment & spending that would create jobs

Instead of supporting the investment, jobs growth and wage growth desperately needed by our political economy, the Reserve Bank has just sent another signal to consumers and businesses to invest and spend less. It even implored the banks yesterday to pass on the 50 basis points of rate hikes to savers as higher term deposit rates, which they have yet to do. It wants the rich to get richer and to save more, rather than spend to employ more the jobless youth.

The way our monetary policy works is just not fair. It punishes the poor, the jobless, the young and the homeless, and it discourages the investment that would improve their situations in the long run. It is tightening policy in a pro-cyclical way in tandem with a fiscal policy tightening, when what we actually need is more jobs and investment.

As the Reserve Bank itself said yesterday, and its charts below show, there is no domestic inflation problem and consumer and investment demand is flat on its back. The Reserve Bank forecasts a rebound in consumer spending and employment, based on the its view that interest rate levels are currently stimulative and that higher real house prices (from later next year) will boost consumer spending. But its own chart on page 38 (see below) shows its rebound forecasts has been consistently wrong for years.

The ultimate painful irony is that this second rate hike, with two more projected to come in the next six months or so, will actually increase capital cost inflation that has worked its way into Consumer Price Index inflation in recent years through the increasing use of capital-user-pays charges by councils and the Government, along with regulated price increases in electricity and gas that are linked to capital cost.

Charts of the day: In the RBNZ’s own words

Yet the RBNZ is (again) projecting a rebound

Cartoon of the day: Broken records & poodles

Ka kite anō

Bernard

PS: I’ve included fewer links elsewhere today to give space for the RBNZ decision.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night featured co-host Peter Bale talking with regular guests Cathrine Dyer and Robert Patman about geopolitics, the economy, climate change and politics. Bernard was taking a break.

In this week’s edition:

* Author and polymath Turi Munthe was on from Rome to talk about his new book: Why We Think What We Think: The Unexpected Origins of Our Deepest Beliefs. It will make you think. If you like the work of Yuval Noah Hariri you will love Turi.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.

The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in last year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free.

Ngā mihi nui.

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night featured co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking with regular guests Cathrine Dyer and Robert Patman about geopolitics, the economy, climate change and politics.

In this week’s edition:

* Bernard and Peter talked about developments in New Zealand’s political economy in the last week, including the winter flu crisis stress on an already-stressed hospital system, along with the deaths from cold of three homeless people;

* Peter, Bernard and Catherine then talked about Cathrine’s article for The Conversation with Massey Uni’s Robert McLachlan that asked: Why is NZ spending far more on responding to climate disasters than on reducing future risk?. Cathrine talked about this paper on blame avoidance.

* Peter, Bernard and Robert then talked about the latest US sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC) and New Zealand’s shameful silence on the issue, along with the latest SIS report on China’s espionage in New Zealand.

* Peter mentioned this book by Sam Dalrymple: Shattered Lands: Five Partitions and the Making of Modern Asia.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.

The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in last year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free.

Ngā mihi nui.

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

Here’s my curation of the day’s top news, analysis, commentary, charts and cartoons from around Aotearoa and elsewhere about our political economy on housing, climate and poverty. This is only published in full for paying subscribers.

Firstly and briefly, here’s my summary and analysis of this morning’s top news:

* This news should be on all the front pages and at the top of every new bulletin for days. Sadly, it hasn’t been, even though it has been reported by various publications. Editors made decisions to focus on other things. So here we go. Three people sleeping rough in Christchurch, Wellington and Auckland died while sleeping in the open during the freezing temperatures that swept the motu at the end of July and early August. Nicholas Jones collated the detail in a deep-dive report on homelessness for Stuff. One of the deaths has also been reported online by Geoff Sloan for the ODT. I recommend reading both reports in full to understand what it means being homeless in freezing temperatures in our three biggest and richest cities.

* Excellent work from Rowan Quinn for RNZ from OIA documents uncovering the effects of hiring go-slows by Health NZ last year has erupted in a new storm over Government’s under-funding, by both major parties, of spending on health operations, infrastructure, maintenance and staffing over two years to keep the lid sinking on health spend and the size of Government overall. See more in Scoops of the day below.

* House building has run faster than population growth for the last four years, but it’s clear a large chunk of it is not being used by families to live in as renters and owners. The Census revealed that 18% of new builds in the last five years are unoccupied and an excellent deep-dive by Tim Brown for RNZ this morning shows the effects of Airbnb on small towns such as Methven. Up to 30% of the town’s homes may be Airbnbs now, some housing 12 people at a time. See my Top Six Pick n’ Mix below.

* A new poll shows consumers want the Government to act to lower power prices. See Chart of the day below.

* Dairy lobbyists in the Waikato have won their battle to stop the Waikato Regional Council forcing them to get consents to keep farming. See Scoops of the day below.

* The fallout from the slump in house sales is flowing into the retirement village development and financing sector, with one finance company specialising in the sector falling over because of a lack of unit sales. See Scoops of the day below.

Join us as a paying subscriber to get my full daily curation of the news, analysis, commentary, links, charts, front pages and cartoons below, and to support this work I do sorting the signal from the noise in our political economy. Here’s an introductory offer for the first year.

I am opening this one up and sending it to all free and paying subscribers immediately due to the public interest of the news I’ve focused on today. Many thanks in advance to paying subscribers.

My Top ‘Pick n’ Mix’ Six Today

* Scoop by Ellen O’Dwyer for RNZ: Documents reveal Health NZ hiring crackdown

* Deep-dive by Tess Brunton for RNZ: ‘Massive’ rise in people injecting black-market drugs, including teens

* Deep-dive by Tim Brown for RNZ: Airbnb crisis or economic boom? Methven grapples with housing tensions ‘Average property values rose by almost 70 percent from 2018 to 2024, climbing from $380,000 to $640,000. 20% of the town’s homes are on Airbnb.’

* Analysis by Shamubeel Eaqub on his Substack:Natural population growth slumps to 83 year low ‘Yet so many provinces have jobs, affordable housing and good quality of life’

* Op-Ed by Graeme Edgeler for The Spinoff: Te Pāti Māori will be in risky territory if it tries to engineer an overhang ‘Exploitation of the overhang loophole has always been possible, but no party has tried it because of how voters are likely to react.’

* Deep-dive by Bridget Tunnicliffe for RNZ: Former Silver Ferns’ captain on NZ exit - ’nobody has anything here’ ‘With her family to consider, Ekenasio said she had to work through some logistics with the Fever but knowing her husband and two children will move over to Perth sealed her decision. Ekenasio co-captained the Pulse this year, but the ANZ Premiership franchises are unable to offer any contracts to players at this point in time.’

Top Six Scoops & Breaking News elsewhere today

* Scoop by Thomas Mead for 1News: Govt targets power line companies as spending forecast hits $32 billion ‘Everyday consumers picking up the bill, according to a discussion document released by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment.; Ministerial statement: Network efficiency needed for more affordable power, Govt says

* Scoop by Charlotte Graham for The Waikato Times-$: Waikato farmers get reprieve as Government hits pause on PC1 Ministerial statement via Beehive: Certainty for Waikato and Manawatū-Whanganui farmers

* Scoop by Matt Nippert for NZ Herald-$ The retirement village lender warning investors of a major haircut - and years-long wait Senior Trust Capital investors face 16% haircut after $15.2m in loan impairments

* Scoop by Julia Gabel for NZ Herald: Christopher Luxon teasing ‘surprise’ retirement village policy

* Investigation by Steve Kilgallon for Stuff: Sham charities, fake salaries alleged in $3.2m fraud probe – the biggest of its kind ‘The DIA alleges they were all involved in a complex scheme in which a series of “sham” charities were set up to apply for community grants from poker machines. Once those grants were obtained, large sums were diverted into personal accounts (with accounting notes such as ‘for website design’, ‘business cards’ and ‘banners and flags’) or paid out as salaries to people who did little or no work (most of the defendants deny the charges and none have been tried).’

* Scoop by Harriet Laughton for The Post-$: Health NZ to spend as much as $100m on hospital security

Chart of the Day: ‘Target the power companies’

Front Page of the Day: Systemic failure

Cartoon of the Day: Cough, cough…

Timeline-cleansing nature pic: Dinner

PS: I update this post online later in the morning, including my full more detailed Picks n’ Mixes on housing, climate and poverty, a full chart pack and more cartoons. It is only available to paying subscribers, who are able to comment and use The Kākā’s chat room.

The Updated Bit

Front Pages, Key Articles, Charts & Cartoons

Newspaper front & key inside pages at 5am

Online news front pages at 5am

Chart Pack

‘We’re waiting’

Net 12% say they’re less likely to vote National after leadership vote

Older people living in poverty

Demographics + Geography = Density

Docs of the Day

* Science Media Centre: Climate liability bill passes final reading – Expert Reaction Lillian Hanley for RNZ: Legislation to end climate lawsuits passes third reading

My Detailed & Full Picks n’ Mixes

Politics in Aotearoa

* Stuff: Luxon tells cycleway city Wellington: ‘You kinda get what you deserve’. “what you’ve got is a whole bunch of bike lanes up Molesworth St that made it very difficult for me getting from my apartment into the parliamentary precinct.” Luxon hasn’t lived in that apartment since moving into Premier House as prime minister. Stuff Video: Luxon on Wellington cycleways, and why locals need to ‘fire up’.; Stuff Video: Is it ‘very difficult’ to cross Molesworth St as Luxon says? We check

* RNZ: Luxon denies ’ridiculous’ accusation by Labour’s Hipkins ‘Christopher Luxon has labelled Labour’s Chris Hipkins “ridiculous” for accusing him of insulting his own National Party backbenchers as “no better than a bunch of Air New Zealand middle managers”. Hipkins made the claim on Tuesday afternoon during a fiery debate about the sacking of Chris Penk from Cabinet, telling MPs that Luxon had badmouthed his caucus colleagues to a group of businesspeople in Auckland.

* Deep-dive by Isaac Davison for Stuff: Safe seats, political careers on the line as boundary changes, newcomers shake up election

* Deep-dive by Joel MacManus for The Spinoff: National’s tax claims tripped up Labour, but misleading marketing comes with risks ‘Simeon Brown got the better of Chris Hipkins yesterday, but he’s walking a high wire claiming Labour wants to introduce 11 new taxes.’

* Ethan Manera for NZ Herald-$: Revealed: Paul Eagle’s $100k payout after leaving Chathams CEO job in disgrace

* Henry Cooke for The Post-$: Winston Peters says NZ First does not support ‘remigration’

* Henry Cook for The Post-$: Labour emailed Upston about winter payment issue in June

* Op-Ed by David Whitburn for The Post-$: Fast-track works. Delmore shows where it breaks

* The Post-$: Editorial: Gaming MMP risks the system itself

* Interview with Jessica Hammond by Hanna McCallum for Newsroom Pro-$: Opportunity surge: ‘It feels so much more like pushing on an open door now’

* Sam Sachdeva for Newsroom Pro-$: Concerns as Public Service Commissioner given final say on health sector bargaining

* Taiha Molyneux for RNZ: Political upheaval drives huge surge in Māori overseas enrolment ‘Electoral Commission figures show the number of overseas voters enrolled in Māori electorates rose from 6891 in 2023 to 11,511 by 1 July.’ For Māori living across the Tasman, voting was also about retaining a say in the future of a country they or their whānau may eventually return to, Nicole Orzecki said. “If I wanted to return to New Zealand, I can because I have a say in the shape of what the future looks like.”

* RNZ: ‘Optics’ and ‘unfunded promises’ - Willis and Sepuloni debate tax

* Interview with Grant Robertson by Mandy Te for Interest: Grant Robertson talks electoral cycle, superannuation, AI and universities

* Deep-dive by Louis Collins for RNZ: Urgent debate or urgent farewell: MPs discuss Chris Penk

* RNZ: Reviewer appointed to probe second Immigration IT project

* Craig McCulloch for RNZ: Labour’s Netflix levy backflip: ‘Administrative oversight’

* RNZ: NZ First leader Winston Peters stops short of support for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon

* RNZ: National Party rule stopping Goldsmith from running in Penk’s safe seat

* Column by Hayden Donnell for The Spinoff: How Paul Goldsmith can fit 11 ministerial roles into his schedule

* Analysis by Anna Whyte for Interest: The seats to watch this election: One in three will be interesting to follow, says pollster David Farrar

* Shayne Currie for NZ Herald-$: Former TVNZ political editor Maiki Sherman has a new role at another public broadcaster

* Stewart Sowman Lund for The Post-$: Ex-political editor Maiki Sherman lands first role since quitting TVNZ

* Stuff: Bomber Bradbury says he started ‘haemorrhaging blood and passed out’ after fall

* Lucy Cooper for The Wairarapa Times Age-$: Wairarapa MP Mike Butterick cops backlash over ‘ute tax’ posts

Geopolitics, Global Economy & Business

* Deep-dive by Alexia Russell for RNZ/Newsroom’s The Detail: Espionage at scale - why businesses must beware

* NZ Herald: Peters asks Russia for answers after missile warning foils Antarctic flight

* Ainsley Thompson for Bloomberg-$ (gift): China Calls New Zealand a ‘Pawn’ After Espionage Accusation

* David Chaston for Interest: How will the current bond market jitters affect us?

* Reuters: US Treasury to double sizes of some debt buyback operations to at least $4 billion

* Reuters: Global bonds rally on signs of support for US Treasury market

* Reuters: Trump says no talks planned with Iran, Tehran says Strait of Hormuz still shut

* Reuters: Trump pauses tariffs on Canadian imports, Carney says key work remains

* Deep-dive by Ed Conway via his substack: The Radio, the Submarine and the Tariffs

NZ Economy & Business

* Tom Raynel for NZ Herald-$: Bank impersonation makes up 71% of Westpac business customer scam losses

* Interview with Karen Silk by Gareth Vaughan for Interest: Payments networks ‘core economic infrastructure like roading, water & electricity,’ RBNZ says

* Ella Somers for Interest: Mercury Energy targets residential power price hikes at or below CPI

* RNZ: NZX appoints new chief executive

* Jamie Gray for NZ Herald: ‘Build greater scale’: NZX’s new chief sets out his goal

* NZ Herald: Trade Me CEO Anders Skoe steps down - who’s his replacement?

* RNZ: Dairy prices rally at latest auction as El Niño looms

* RNZ: Fletcher Building back in profit

* RNZ: Te Papa chief executive quits

* RNZ: Construction begins on country’s largest data centre

* NZ Herald: What does NZ’s birthrate decline mean for our future workforce? NZ Herald Video: NZ’s baby shortage is becoming an economic problem

* Op-Ed by Rod Snodgrass for NZ Herald-$: What if New Zealand chose energy abundance?

* Liz McDonald for The Press-$: Mainland Capital still has eye for Christchurch despite $75m Auckland spend

* Blayne Slabbert for The Press-$: Record year for Queenstown Airport as pressure grows on region’s creaking infrastructure

* The Press-$: Christchurch lands record summer flight schedule with more than 200,000 extra seats

* Liz McDonald for The Press-$: Diggers break ground at $130m Downtown precinct, with first shops to open by Christmas next year

* Ian Llewellyn for BusinessDesk-$:Govt puts pressure on power networks ‘Ministers are putting pressure on electricity lines companies to improve efficiency.’

* Will Johnston for The Taranaki Daily News-$: Ōakura butcher closing doors as mounting cost pressures bite

Housing

* Greg Ninness for Interest: High levels of unsold stock the main problem for the housing market over winter

* Analysis by Jonathan Milne for Newsroom: Fletcher Building back in black but warns election nerves are stalling NZ house builds

* Gareth Vaughan for Interest: ‘Independent economic umpire’ to assess councils’ role in urban land market competitiveness; Beehive statement: Achieving competitive urban land markets in new system

* RNZ: Controversial development plan for Pegasus Golf Course declined fast-track approval

* RNZ: Waimakariri mayor welcomes red light on Pegasus Golf Course fast-track plan

* Jessica Hopkins for RNZ: Contentious development plan for seaside village seeks fast-track approval

* Irra Lee for RNZ: Growing homelessness linked to tighter emergency housing rules, community leader says

* Gareth Vaughan for Interest: ‘Potentially hundreds of millions of dollars worth of suspected fraudulent loans’

* Ministerial statement: More than 820 homes through Flexible Fund

* RNZ: Housing affordability improves after Covid price spike

Transport

* NZ Herald: Why are we waiting? Will Auckland ever get another harbour crossing?

* RNZ: Meola Reef harbour crossing: Mayor could use own fund to pay for study

* RNZ: ’They signed up for this’: Luxon fires back at Peters over harbour crossing plan

* Roeland van den Bergh for The Post-$: Trucking body says migrant drivers urgently needed to replace ageing workforce

* Column by Rod Campbell for The Post-$: Why the big rush? Data centres aren’t the only thing we should be hitting pause on

* Tom Pullar-Strecker for The Post-$: Merging 28 lines companies no guarantee of lower bills, MBIE suggests

Infrastructure, Water & Councils

* Graham Skellern for NZ Herald: Nearly $193b of infrastructure projects lack confirmed funding

* Julia Gabel for NZ Herald: ‘I’m furious’: Bishop blasts Fire and Emergency as National develops policy

* RNZ: Chris Bishop softens comments criticising FENZ as ‘incompetent’

* Ethan Manera for NZ Herald: ‘Abysmal management’: Luxon attacks Wellington water entity, Little hits back

* Max Frethey for LDR/RNZ: ‘Little bit grumpy’: Rural residents shoulder water upgrade costs

* Erin Johnson for RNZ: ‘It’s going to hurt’ - neighbour wants council to work with owner of cracked heritage building

* Moana Ellis for LDR/RNZ: Ohakune water crisis exposes funding gap for critical infrastructure, says mayor

* Justin Wong for LDR/RNZ: Confusion over responsibilities in Lower Hutt storm response

* Column by Lianne Dalziel for Newsroom: Ngāi Tahu, not Govt, offers local councils an unexpected ‘head start’ on mergers

* Tina Law for The Press-$: Unprecedented closures on the cards as Christchurch councillors are told to prepare for an extreme fire risk this summer

* Tom Hunt for The Post-$: Secret Moa Point report includes potential ‘adverse’ findings against Wellington council

* Andrew Ashton for The Waikato Times-$: Hamilton City leaders flip-flop on voting system, plan referendum

* Liz McDonald for The Press-$: Queenstown Airport ordered to reveal plans for rival Frankton development

* Tom Hunt for The Post-$: Delay Wellington public transport route for ‘never never’ tunnels? Airport says yes

Poverty, Living Costs & Incomes

* Deep-dive by Marty Sharpe for Stuff: The tragic life of Gavin Rose, who died in Napier’s city centre, aged 32

* RNZ: ACT proposes ‘Working with Children’ card to ensure continual vetting

* Lillian Hanley for RNZ: How much would it cost to fix the broken aged-care system?

* Giles Dexter for RNZ: ’Appalling’: Luxon apologises as thousands caught in Winter Energy Payment error

* Robin Martin for RNZ: Taranaki teens optimistic despite high youth unemployment and spectre of AI

* RNZ Morning Report: No ‘silver bullet’ for cutting high power bills - Energy Minister

Health

* Luisa Girao for The Press-$: Hundreds seek after-hours care at new Rolleston clinic while wait times hit seven hours in Christchurch

* Rowan Quinn for RNZ: Flu wards set up, elective surgery cancelled as hospital admissions surge

* Lauren Crimp for RNZ: More will die in prison if mental health bed shortage continues - Ombudsman

* Explainer by Emma Gleason for The Spinoff: New Zealand’s later-than-usual 2026 influenza spike. EDs are chocka

* Explainer by Lucy Corry for RNZ: Hatching and scratching: What you need to know about scabies but were afraid to ask

* 1News: Guidelines to let GPs diagnose endometriosis more easily”Surgery will remain available for those who need it, but it will no longer be the only route to a diagnosis,” says the Health Minister.

* Column by Ian Powell for Newsroom: Simeon Brown health practitioners bill puts political whims ahead of public safety

* Jazlyn Whales for NZ Herald-$: Eating disorders not solely psychological, landmark NZ-linked study finds

* NZ Herald-$: Editorial: Dental care system for children needs fixing

* Will Johnston for The Taranaki Daily News-$: Meth use surges in Taranaki as pipes stay on shelves

Education

* John Gerritsen for RNZ: Govt considers u-turn on climate change in school curriculum

* Jessica Hopkins for RNZ: ’Never seen anything like this’: More than half of students off sick at Napier school

* RNZ: School absences due to illness at highest level in three years

* Mary Argue for RNZ: Principals urge cross-party support for initiative to end curriculum disruption

Crime & Justice

* 1News: Kiwifruit labour company must pay $400k for exploiting migrant workersThe company, which supplied workers to kiwifruit orchards in the Bay of Plenty, withheld wages and holiday pay and made employees pay premiums.

* RNZ: Second arrest after attempt to steal railway copper disrupts train travel in Wellington

* 1News: Multiple memorial plaques stolen from central ChristchurchPolice appealed for public’s help in identifying a man after several plaques went missing in Christchurch last week.

* Lillian Hanley for RNZ: ’Walking the line’ attack at youth justice residence probed

* Tess Brunton for RNZ: Concerns about ’boys club’ culture among managers at Otago prison

* RNZ: ’Parents were told that they were overreacting’: Kmart ordered to pay toddlers’ family over contaminated sand

* Lucy Xia for RNZ: ‘I’m really appalled for what they’ve done’ - More parents continue fight over coloured sand

Climate & Environment

* Marty Sharpe for Stuff: ‘I cannot believe Chris Bishop said no’: Dead boy’s family in fight over forestry debris

* Fox Meyer for Newsroom: How new fast-track has revived colossal salmon farm once rejected for ecological harm

* Deep-dive by Paddy Gower for Stuff: ‘Violent virus’ wiping out rare baby penguins - expert predicts extinction within five years

* RNZ: Gisborne slash clash: Mayor feels like ‘meat in the middle’

* RNZ: ‘Ruined what was a fantastic place’: Arthur’s Pass campsite torn up by 4WD vehicles

* RNZ: Gisborne District Council open to change over forestry management of slash, sediment

* Katie Todd for RNZ: Datagrid pledges less water, generator use at Southland AI factory

* Ministerial statement from Shane Jones via Beehive: Providing certainty for the marine sector ‘Councils will lose the ability to make rules for fishing and fishery resources already managed under the Fisheries Act in changes to legislation going through Parliament.’

Solutions & Good News

* Rachel Moore for RNZ: Hamilton’s first social supermarket officially opens

* Tuwhenuaroa Natanahira for RNZ: ’Parliament acting at its best’: Nelson Tenths land dispute finally settled after 180 years

* Philip Matthews for The Press-$: The Press investigative reporter Charlie Mitchell to be UC’s first ‘journalist in residence’

cheers

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

Here’s my curation of the day’s top news, analysis, commentary, charts and cartoons from around Aotearoa and elsewhere about our political economy on housing, climate and poverty. This is only published in full for paying subscribers.

Firstly and briefly, here’s my summary and analysis of this morning’s top news:

* An analysis by the NZ Herald-$ of land sales data for a now-delayed highway in South Auckland shows over $131 million of the project’s budget was spent buying land to enable greenfields development at the fringes. See Chart of the Day below

* Housing & Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop has been forced into an embarrassing U-turn on infrastructure funding for fast-tracked developments after a protest letter from the Mayors of Auckland and Queenstown.

* The back-track on the fast-track rules is symptomatic of the major driver of the biggest problem in New Zealand’s political economy: the cost of the next plot of land in greenfields developments is usually the marginal housing cost that translates into higher housing costs across the market. The massive costs of new water infrastructure are now increasingly being loaded into those land costs through development contributions paid by developers, which further inflates housing costs right across the market. Developers eyeing an opportunity to lower those costs jumped on the Fast-Track bandwagon

* It didn’t use to be that way. Before the era of user-pays and a structural drive to small Government and low taxes from the late 1980s onwards, these infrastructure and land costs of the ‘marginal’ home were smeared across the entire population through the Government paying for it directly, and recouping the costs through higher taxes.

* Also symptomatic of that structural drive to put a sinking lid on health costs in order to keep taxes low, New Zealand’s hospital system is now in the middle of a winter flu crisis. Also see Top Newspaper article of the day

* The Opportunity Party got the jump again on other parties over the weekend, launching a policy to regulate lobbyists and stop large political donations. The extra focus came as the Talbot Mills/Enacta poll showed Opportunity over 5% and in the kingmaker position. See Chart Pack of the day below after update

Please join us as a paying subscriber to get my full daily curation of the news, analysis, commentary, links, charts, front pages and cartoons below, and to support this work I do sorting the signal from the noise in our political economy.

I have decided to open this one up to all immediately so the video above is available to all. It includes a backgrounder on why high development contributions are inflating all house prices. Many thanks in advance to paying subscribers.

My Top ‘Pick n’ Mix’ Six Today

* Deep-dive by Anna Rankin for Sunday Star Times-$: The cosy corporate club holding New Zealand’s economy back

* Nona Pelletier for RNZ: Time to rein in power of big tech, Auckland professor says From Auckland Uni’s Susan Watson and her paper: Reining in Big Tech Corporations: Why Platform Governance Requires Structural Regulation

* Scoop by Pokere Paewai for RNZ: Unreleased review of Waitangi Tribunal sitting with ministers

* Interview with IAG CEO Phil Gibson by Ella Somers for Interest: ‘There comes a point where there’s no price you can charge that can cover the risk’ ‘IAG NZ warns it may have to withdraw insurance from NZ’s flood-prone areas in the future if the Government doesn’t speed up natural hazard risk reduction.’ ‘I absolutely don’t want insurance to become unaffordable,’ IAG NZ CEO says

* Deep-dive by Marty Sharpe for Stuff: ‘I would live here, insured or not’: Their house is gone, but this family won’t give up their land

* Column by Gareth Morgan for Newsroom: Who’s the fiscal blowhard, Mr Luxon? ‘National’s dirty big secret is that it has been $17 billion out on its 2023 promise to fix the Government’s books, writes Gareth Morgan.’

Scoops elsewhere this morning

* Hanna McCallum for Newsroom: Climate change omitted from new science and social science curriculums ‘A search of new school curriculum documents reveals no mention of greenhouse gases, fossil fuels or human induced climate change.’

* Marty Sharpe for Stuff: ‘Goalposts have shifted;’ Dairy farmers face fines of up to $1 million for farm pollution

* Amelia Wade for The Post-$: $106m and counting with no crossing to show for it: Spending on consultants on Auckland’s next harbour crossing revealed

* Harriet Laughton for The Post-$: Government ignores advice to repay retirement village residents within nine months

* Amy Ridout for The Post-$: ‘Your nemesis’: IRD staff mocked business owner in private messages

* Sam Sachdeva for Newsroom Pro-$: UK pitches military tech role and navy frigate deal to NZ Op-Ed by Reuben Steff for Newsroom Pro-$: Navy frigate decision looms as Pacific security threats escalate

Chart or Map of the Day: $131m on land for a road

Front page or key newspaper article of the Day

Cartoon of the Day : Short Cut?

Timeline-cleansing nature pic: Rooted

cheers

Bernard

PS: I update this post online later in the morning, including my full more detailed Picks n’ Mixes on housing, climate and poverty, a full chart pack and more cartoons. It is only available to paying subscribers, who are able to comment and use The Kākā’s chat room.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night featured co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking with regular guests Cathrine Dyer and Robert Patman about geopolitics, the economy, climate change and politics.

This edition also included discussions with special guests Jonathan Lyons, PhD on Iran and NZME’s Fran O’Sullivan.

* Bernard and Peter talked about the developments in New Zealand’s political economy in the last week, including PM Christopher Luxon’s second win in a caucus confidence vote in four months.

* Peter, Bernard and Catherine then talked about the Climate Commission’s latest report on where the Government was failing to achieve its legislated emissions reduction goals, and the idea of Jevons Paradox. Cathrine referred to this IMF paper on the issue.

* Peter mentioned this article from the FT-$ (gift) article from Pilita Clark on ‘How to stop global warming.’

* Peter, Bernard, Robert and Jonathan then talked about Iran’s apparent victory over the United States, which Jonathan will be writing about on his Substack Signal to Noise: History. Philosophy. Commentary.

* Peter, Bernard and Fran then talked about the National Caucus’s leadership debate and the differences between Helen Clark, John Key and Christopher Luxon. They discussed Fran’s column in the NZ Herald-$ on how Clark handled Foreign Minister Winston Peters when they were in Government together.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.

The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in last year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free.

Ngā mihi nui.

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe

The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night featured co-hosts Bernard Hickey and Peter Bale talking with regular guests Cathrine Dyer and Robert Patman about geopolitics, the economy, climate change and politics.

This edition also included discussions with special guest Don Christie, the MD of Catalyst IT, who talked about Catalyst’s manifesto for Election 2026, and the need for sovereignty around Aotearoa’s data and resilience around our data centres.

* Bernard and Peter talked about the developments in New Zealand’s political economy in the last week, including PM Christopher Luxon’s surprise decision yesterday to commit National to holding a referendum on MMP, without talking to his coalition partners or his caucus about it, and the latest figures showing youth employment under-utilisation of 37%.

* Peter, Bernard, Catherine and Don then talked about the implications of big data centres in New Zealand, and the need for local data sovereignty and resilience.

* Peter mentioned articles from The Guardian and FT-$ (gift) as useful reads on the Ceuta migration issue.

The Hoon’s podcast version above was recorded on Thursday night during a live webinar for over 200 paying subscribers and was produced and edited by Simon Josey.

The Hoon won the silver award for best current affairs podcast in last year’s New Zealand Podcast awards.

(This is a sampler for all free subscribers and anyone else who stumbles on it. Thanks to the support of paying subscribers here, we’re able to spread my public interest journalism here about housing affordability, climate change and poverty reduction other public venues. Join the community supporting and contributing to this work with your ideas, feedback and comments, and by subscribing in full. Remember, all students and teachers who sign up for the free version with their .ac.nz and .school.nz email accounts are automatically upgraded to the paid version for free.

Ngā mihi nui.

Bernard

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit thekaka.substack.com/subscribe