Briefly in the news in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Monday, February 23:
* The Lead - Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith and Police Minister Mark Mitchell announced yesterday the Government planned to change the law to allow Police to ‘move-on’ homeless people aged over 14 from city centers for 24 hours, with breaches punishable by a $2,000 fine, which most won’t be able to pay, or 90 days in prison, which would cost the taxpayer $49,680 per person at a cost of $552 per night for 90 nights.
* The Sidebar - The move to threaten to imprison the homeless came after the Government saved the annual equivalent of $156 million over the last 18 months by removing 3,525 people from emergency accommodation in motels at a cost of $233 per person per night. Social service providers reported a doubling of homelessness to 940 in Auckland by September last year after the emptying of motels.
* The Reaction - Homeless people described the ‘move on’ orders as ‘draconian bullying,’ while social service providers said the homeless needed to be housed rather than imprisoned. PM Christopher Luxon told NewstalkZB this morning: “The bigger issue is like Chuck and Mary coming in for their once-in-a-lifetime trip to New Zealand on a cruise ship, walking around downtown and getting intimidated because someone’s sitting on the doorstop of a shop they’re trying to get into, threatening, shouting at them, abusing them. Right now it doesn’t trigger an offence under other pieces (of legislation), but by putting this in place that helps.”
* The Perspective - The Government has added 2,000 beds to the prison system since its election in November 2023, while its moves in Budget 2024 and Budget 2025 have delivered 420 new social homes and it has funded places for an extra 113 people in ‘Housing First’.
* In my view - The Government is betting it will have to imprison a much lower number of people than it housed in motels, even though it costs more than twice as much per night to house a person in prison. The Government’s fiscal position would be net better off if it imprisoned fewer than 774 homeless people. If it only imprisoned 280 people over a year for 90 days each then the total annual cost of $13.9 million would still leave savings on motels of $142 million per year.
* In summary - The Government has chosen to threaten homeless people as young as 14 with prison in order to save $142 million per annum, and to reduce its borrowing requirements by $142 million, as requested by Treasury, which worries global bond investors might boycott New Zealand Government debt, even though last week’s bond tender of $450 million of bonds received bids of nearly $4 for each 1$ offered.
* The bottom line - The savings for New Zealand taxpayers as a whole due to the lower borrowing requirement would amount to less than a tenth of a basis point, equivalent to savings to the taxpayer of $208,500 per year, or less than 3.7 cents per person per year. A tenth of a basis point off the cost of a mortgage would save the average mortgage payer $3.38 per year or 6.5 cents per week.
My Picks n’ Mixes
Scoops & Breaking News this morning
* RNZ: ‘Hard to know how this is a solution’ Homeless move-on orders questioned
* RNZ: Uncertainty likely to remain with US tariff ruling - trade minister
* Henry Cooke for The Post-$: Govt considers requiring car parks in new developments again
* Fox Meyer for Newsroom: What Trump’s America wants from NZ’s mines
* Deep-dive by Nicholas Dynon for Newsroom Pro-$: Why NZ’s retail crime statistics rose so sharply… and then declined
Hot topics: Densification downgrade
* Column by Andrea Vance for SST-$: Housing reform in the too-hard basket, and the base cheers ‘Every nervous homeowner in Epsom or Remuera matters more to the coalition than a young family struggling to get on the housing ladder.’
* Stewart Sowman-Lund for SST-$: Voters back intensification - just not in their backyard ‘As Auckland’s housing plan gets watered down, new polling reveals how voters in the super city feel about potential growth.’
* Deep-dive by Stewart Sowman-Lund for SST-$ A crazy nightmare: what housing developers feel about politicians’ flip-flopping ‘Housing policy often treated as a political football, and the game may not be over quite yet.’
* Column by Henry Cooke for The Post-$: The many knives in Chris Bishop’s back ‘The Housing Minister’s latest backdown may not be the last. His experience will turn off other politicians keen to take a punt on our knottiest issues.’
* Column for NZ Herald-$: Matthew Hooton: Interest rates and Auckland housing U-turn could give Luxon election tailwind
Politics in Aotearoa
* Henry Cooke for The Post-$: Exclusions spark tension as Greens tighten list rules. ‘Members complain that the new process has created a “very James Shaw party list” of people who play “respectability games”.
* Andrea Vance for The Post-$: A hard sell in the capital: National’s Wellington North candidate drought
* David Fisher for NZ Herald-$: ‘Totally inappropriate’: Coalition upset over Army’s new te ao Māori bicultural plan
* Column for NZ Herald-$: Thomas Coughlan: A policy that could win the election, and keep thousands of Kiwis in NZ - raising the student loan repayment threshold
* Colin Peacock for RNZ Mediawatch: Mediawatch: Immigration amping up in election year
Geopolitics & the Global Economy
* FT-$: Trump’s new flat-rate tariff is a boost for China and Brazil
* Reuters: Tariff ruling won’t end uncertainty for trade partners
* Reuters: Iran and US views on sanctions relief differ, new talks planned
* AP: Armed man shot and killed after entering secure perimeter of Mar-a-Lago, Secret Service says
* Reuters: Trump’s aides urge him to focus on voters’ worries, not war with Iran
* Reuters: Blue Owl halts redemptions at one of its funds, deepening selloff in private equity shares
NZ Economy & Business
* Jenee Tibshraeny for NZ Herald-$: IRD quietly consults on bank tax tweaks – is a bigger tax grab in the works?
* Column for NZ Herald-$: Fran O’Sullivan: New Zealand’s fiscal ‘directors’ are sailing us towards a debt reckoning
* David Chaston for Interest: Westpac actions u-turn on longer mortgage rates ahead of rivals
* RNZ: Consumer NZ urges government to press ahead with fixing surcharge ‘mess’
* RNZ: Soaring bills put households’ spending on ice
* RNZ: Fonterra raises forecast farmgate milk price for season
* Blayne Slabbert for The Press-$: Reserve Bank governor urges the country to ‘look to Canterbury’
* Joel MacManus for The Spinoff: Reserve Bank signals a ‘structural change to the housing market’ in Anna Breman’s debut
Housing, Transport, Infrastructure & Councils
* Bernard Orsman for NZ Herald-$: ‘Shame on them’: Community fears housing plans behind Anglican trust’s legal fight over sports club
* Nikki Preston for One Roof: Why NZ’s ‘rock star’ MP is now selling houses
* Nikki McDonald for The Post-$: What’s the magic visitor number? Queenstown searches for optimal tourism. ‘Mountain mecca Queenstown Lakes has developed a way to measure the benefits and burdens of more tourists. It measures the impact of tourists on everything from the economy and jobs, to roads and sewerage.’
* Ayla Yeoman for LDR/RNZ: ‘Full circle’: No housing for Parau Farms as city reverts to sports field plans
* RNZ: Neighbour fears losing thousands as unfinished apartment owner faces deregistration
* Op-Ed by Rehette Stolz for The Post-$: Latest weather crises highlight funding plight for local govt. ‘We need to have a clear conversation about how we pay for a stronger emergency management system as a country.’
* Mike Tweed for Whanganui Chronicle: ‘Why don’t we just fund it?’: The bridge replacement battle
* Blayne Slabbert for The Press-$: The $3b plan to stop Canterbury being isolated by bridge failures ‘A new report urges Canterbury to bundle ageing bridges into a 30-year upgrade plan, funded by a new regional fund, asset sales and targeted charges.’
* Tina Law for The Press-$: Christchurch’s Civic Building now considered ‘earthquake prone’, but still safe to occupy, council says
* Op-Ed by Barney Irvine for NZ Herald-$: Barney Irvine: A new Waitematā Harbour crossing? Break the cycle of planning failure first
Poverty, Health, Education, Incomes, Living Costs & Justice
* Deep-dive by Isaac Davison for Stuff: Boston was two months old. His death is part of a nationwide problem that hasn’t gone away
* Mary Afemata for LDR/RNZ: Charity requests $30k to keep Pacific seniors gatherings running
* Rosie Leishman for NewstalkZB: ‘Students are really doing it hard’: Part-time jobs dry up for uni students
* Gary Hamilton-Irvine for Hawkes Bay Today-$: Baby bust: Fewer than 2000 births in this NZ region for first time in almost 50 years
* Anneke Smith for RNZ: Promises to ban paywave surcharges ‘going nowhere’
* Ethan Griffiths for NZ Herald: ‘Going nowhere’: Peters pours cold water on Govt’s card surcharge ban
* Harriet Laughton for The Post-$: Health NZ’s budget improving but it will struggle to meet targets ‘A Cabinet paper shows that Health NZ is on track to balance its books but faces significant challenges in meeting this year’s health targets.’
* RNZ: E-scooter injuries on the rise, young people most affected
Climate & Environment
* Deep-dive by Charlie Mitchell for The Press-$: The pressure campaign that sank a phantom water tax. There was no water tax. ‘But through branding and a manufactured sense of urgency, a pressure campaign on the Government appeared to secure a victory.’
* Deep-dive Andrea Vance for The Post-$: The great flush: Are new sewage laws reverting to 1930s standards? ‘Experts and watchdogs warn new rules could allow plants like Wellington’s Moa Point to scale back treatment, raising fears of a return to outdated sewage practices.’
* Frances Chin for The Post-$: Homeowners pay hundreds to clean homes after storm ‘Business has doubled for a tradesman who specialises in cleaning the exterior of houses following last week’s storm and the Moa Point disaster.’
* Sharon Bretkelly for RNZ/Newsroom’s The Detail: Barker’s of Geraldine in a jam over waste
Cartoon: Honk
Ka kite ano,
Bernard
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