Actionable Intelligence Alert

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Yogi Berra was quoted as saying that, "Making predictions is hard, especially about the future." Nevertheless, it is my job to take the best information available and come up with the highest probability outcome.  

In this case, I believe oil prices head higher and generalist investors begin to return to oil stocks based on the wall of cashflow they will generate this year.  

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Hope you enjoy the last update for 2021.  

Thanks all for all the support and good comments and encouragement this year.   

Hoping 2022 will be healthy, happy, and profitable.

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"Every day, headlines and stories reinforce the thesis that oil is in a multi-year bull market.  

It’s time for investors to connect the dots… the world is hurtling toward an oil crisis.  

A growing population and rising standards of living, combined with the lack of alternatives to oil in the short-term in the transportation sector, suggests demand for the commodity will continue to grow for years to come."

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Lack of investment, continual declines in production, and constant demand growth are all coming together to create a scenario where oil prices will make all-time highs.

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Yes, markets have been terrible the last few weeks. And yes the negative sentiment could persist through yearend.   

However ask yourself, has anything fundamentally changed? Did anyone announce new uranium mines? What about increased spending on new oil and gas projects.  

Recall what Buffett said, "In the short term the market is a voting machine and in the long term it is a weighing machine.  

Market sentiment is bad currently but nothing has changed long term.

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News of the Nu covid variant from South Africa has led to more volatility in the energy markets. WTI was down 13% on Friday 11/26/21.   

Is the drop warranted? Or is this another buying opportunity for oil and energy in general?

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Oil sold off for various reasons this week. It was overbought and sentiment had become too bullish. Seasonality, SPR release jawboning by the Biden regime, higher dollar, are among the reasons.  

I still believe we are in an energy bull market due to chronic underinvestment that has restricted supply and will be exacerbated by ESG which will cause permitting, and financing issues for new fossil fuel projects.

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The CPI came in at a hot 6.2% this week. This is pushing negative rates, which drive gold prices, even further into negative territory.   

Technically the gold stocks just put in support at the key 200 week moving average. This bodes well for further price gains.

CEO of Yara Fertilizer says we are heading for a food crisis because the cost of energy has made fertilizer too expensive to produce.  China announces 150 new reactor builds by 2035. 

The uranium requirement will be 50 million pounds per year of additional supply the world was not anticipating. This is three Cigar Lake mines worth. Wow!

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Just more positive uranium news. I also review the Cameco Q3 earnings report. The CEO says that the prospects may be "the best ever".  

Also discussed; the huge earnings beat by oil sands operator Suncor. They are gushing cash and using it to buy back stock, increase dividends, and pay down debt. 

Expect more of this in our AIA portfolio oil stocks.