Advisorpedia's The Week Ahead Podcast, Powered by Tematica Research

Join Tematica Research's Chief Macro Strategist, Lenore Hawkins, and Chief Investment Officer, Chris Versace, as they discuss and debate what's driving the market and the economy this week.

Markets last week

Bulls are dominating - latest Investor Intelligence poll

up to 61.2% bull from 60.8% prior week

Bears down to 15.3% from prior 15.5%

Key Economic Data and Related Events LAST WEEK

Seeing further signs of slowing in geographies that were the first to pull out of the pandemic:

China’s GDP in Q2 rose 7.9% YoY, slower than the expected 8.1% increase, and 1.3% QoQ after rising 18.3% YoY and a downwardly revised 0.4% QoQ respectively in Q1. 

Global inflation remains tame:

Italy’s Inflation Rate for June was unchanged with May’s 1.3% reading, matching expectations.

DOMESTIC INFLATION

Last week’s release of the Consumer Price Index for June found that prices rose 0.9% MoM, nearly 2x the expected 0.5% increase, and were up 5.4% YoY. Both the MoM and YoY increases were at their fastest pace since 2008. Ex-food and energy prices rose 4.5%, the fastest pace since November 1991 and well above the Fed’s 2.0% long-run target pace.

RETAIL SALES STRONGER THAN EXPECTED

Retail Sales for June came in stronger than expected for June, rising 0.6% MoM from a downwardly revised -1.7% contraction in May.

JOBLESS CLAIMS

Came in at 360k, slightly above expectations for 350k and prior week revised upward to 386k from 373k. 

Typical tight labor market has just over 200k.

If companies are having such a tough time finding talent, why 2x on firings?

Economic Data to Watch THIS WEEK

Monday - NAHB Housing market index

Tuesday - Building Permits, Housing Starts

Thursday -  Weekly jobless claims (last week hit a pandemic low, but still well above 200k (ish) we should be seeing), Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Existing Home Sales

Friday - Markit Non Manufacturing PMI (flash), Markit Services PMI (flash)

Coming up…. 

Monday, July 19: 

AutoNation (AN) - cars

JB Hunt (JBHT) - west coast port issues

Tuesday, July 20: 

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG:NYSE) - food and drinking places crushed it in 2Q per Retail sales but input costs vs. price increases

Netflix (NFLX) - growth in streamers esp outside the US, content spending, games

United Airlines (UAL).

Wednesday, July 21: 

Coca-Cola (KO)  - away from home and non sugar beverage demand

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) - What is Vegas like baby? 

Thursday, July 22:  

DR Horton (DHI) - housing demand

Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) - tough comps year over year - how is it navigating the return to dining out? Is it hitting its margins? forcing it to get more aggressive on deals to lure eaters?

Friday, July 23

American Express (AXP) - spending - where, how much, US vs. Europe?

Kimberly Clark (KMB) - last year was strong for paper products, but now what about the impact of lumber prices and the pricing envirnment vs. last year’s paper product shortage?

Sensient (SXT) - watching to hear what this flavoring and color company has to say about non meat protein demand in the quarter and expectations as BYND re-launched its plant based chicken with Panda Express…. 

Resources: Tematica Research | Chris Versace | Lenore Hawkins

Join Tematica Research's Chief Macro Strategist, Lenore Hawkins, and Chief Investment Officer, Chris Versace, as they discuss and debate what's driving the market and the economy this week.

Markets last week

For all the talk of a booming equity market and bust in the bond market ...

Net inflows into US bond funds outpacing those for comparable equity in 2021. 

Bond mutual funds and ETF added $372b as of June 23 v $160b for equities according to ICI

Bond funds are on track to eclipse the $446b of inflows in 2020

Lagging advance/decline lines for Nasdaq

Short-and medium-term oscillators have risen well into overbought territory.

Russell 2000 has been in a sideways trading range/consolidation since March, h. 

Short-term indicators remain under downside pressure while medium-term measures wavering around neutral.

Key Economic Data and Related Events Last Week

Last week’s ISM non-manufacturing and Markit Services PMIs both declined sequentially and came in weaker-than-expected. Both the US and global indices indicated a peaking out of the year-over-year base effects, just as we have been suggesting would happen. This fits with the corresponding rally we have been witnessing in Treasuries, which is consistent with expectations for the economy starting to roll over.

Last week the Federal Reserve released the minutes from their June meeting that rather rocked the markets. The minutes indicate that officials are pleased with the economic recovery and focused on the strong investment and increases in productivity but were dissatisfied with the progress in the labor market. When it comes to inflation half think the high current prices will end up being deflationary and half think they will be self-reinforcing high inflation. Several participants want to reduce mortgage-backed security purchases faster than Treasury bond purchases. Bottom line - this stuff is complicated and even the experts with all the data available right at their fingertips don’t agree and the market didn’t react noticeably once these minutes were released.

Possibly one of the biggest pieces of news last week came from Wells Fargo (WFC) which announced it is closing all credit lines and will no longer be offering them.

Economic Data to Watch THIS WEEK

July 13: Inflation, Monthly Federal Budget statement

July 14: Producer Price Index; Fed Beige Book

July 14-15: Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell - Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the US House Committee on Financial Services 

July 15: Weekly jobless claims, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production, Import & Export Prices

July 16: Retail Sales, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Business Inventories, Net Capital Flows, Foreign Bond Investment

JULY 31 - Debt ceiling suspension expires

Last time we had an impasse on such the S&P 500 fell 6% in a month (July 2011) and didn’t get a solid breakout until December

Earnings of note THIS WEEK

Tuesday, July 13:

Conagra (CAG) - tough YoY comps, how much is attributed to the reopening

PepsiCo (PEP): away from home consumption of its beverages

Wednesday, July 14: 

Delta Air Lines (DAL): outlook for 2H vs. 1H schedules, fares, butts in seats; international travel

Thursday, July 15:  

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): comments will be closely 

Alcoa (AA)

Friday, July 16: 

Ericsson (ERIC): 5G

Kansas City Southern (KSU): June rail traffic was up 19% YoY - let’s see if KSU can translate that volume growth into operating leverage; also how it sees the Biden White House’s ramped up regulatory scrutiny of the rail industry playing out

Resources: Tematica Research | Chris Versace | Lenore Hawkins

Join Tematica Research's Chief Macro Strategist, Lenore Hawkins, and Chief Investment Officer, Chris Versace, as they discuss and debate what's driving the market and the economy this week.

Markets last week

Last Thusday the Nasdaq closed up 0.7% for its 17th record high in 2021. Not to be outdone, the S&P 500 gained 0.6% to make its 30th record close for the year and the Dow added nearly 1%. The long bond remained fairly steady at 2.1% while WTI crude rose back above $73 a barrel and gold dropped lower to $1,775 an ounce as the VIX fell below 16, near to its pandemic-period lows.

Key Economic Data and Related Events LAST WEEK

Probably the biggest news was that a bipartisan group of Senators came to an agreement with the Biden administration on a roughly $1T infrastructure plan

$579b new spending

$312b transport

$10s b on water infrastructure, broadband, environmental remediation, power & electrical grid

Funding from new IRS enforcement? Ugh

$100b in public/private partnerships

$65b in 5G wireless spectrum sales

Less than 60 votes in total right now for it in the Senate

Economic Data to Watch THIS WEEK

Tuesday, June 29: 

April FHFA Housing Price Index HOUSING

April S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index HOUSING

June Consumer Confidence

Wednesday, June 30: 

June ADP Employment Change Report + Friday’s (LABOR)

June Chicago PMI - Markit’s from last week showed slowing (SLOWING)

May Pending Home Sales HOUSING

Thursday, July 1: 

Weekly and Continuing Jobless Claims (LABOR)

May Construction Spending (SLOWING)

June ISM Manufacturing Index (SLOWING)

Friday, July 2:  

June Employment Report (LABOR)

May Factory Orders.  (SLOWING)

 

Resources: Tematica Research | Chris Versace | Lenore Hawkins

Related: The Week Ahead: Is the Market Too Confident?

Join Tematica Research's Chief Macro Strategist, Lenore Hawkins, and Chief Investment Officer, Chris Versace, as they discuss and debate what's driving the market and the economy this week.

Markets last week

So much for the inflation story - after 2 days to digest the Fed’s latest decision, if the concern is the Fed raising rates, high growth should have been hit and value preferred. The opposite happened. Thursday the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite & Nasdaq 100 closed in the green while the rest of the major indices closed in negative territory again. To really emphasize the lack of inflation fears, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped 6 basis points Thursday  to 1.509%. Long bond is now down 38 bp from recent peak on March 18 and back to the same level it was in February 2020 when Fed Funds rate was 1.6% and unemployment was 3.5%.

Big news was Fed 

Median dot plot fo 2023 move to 0.6% from basically 0 with 13 or 18 members seeing at least one hike by the end of 2023. This was 7 in March. 11 see at least 2 hikes by end of 2023.

The market really wants some sort of Oracle to tell them what's coming, but those dot plots, they aren’t it.

Go back to when these “dots”were first introduced by Ben Bernanke in January 2012 when the funds rate was also near-zero. For 2014, the “dots”called for two hikes to 0.75%. The Fed was all bulled up on growth  back then,too.  Where  did  we  finish  off  2014?  Try  the  zero-bound on the funds rate.

How about Powell and crew in September  2018? The dots said 3.375% for 2020. Where did we close the year? Try near-zero. Even at the peak, the funds rate never broke above 2.5%

Housing Boom? 

What about the recent notable downward drift in pending home sales?    

Homebuying plans from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers are down to a 39-year low? 

S&P500 homebuilder index is in full-blown corrective mode? 

National Association of Homebuilder’s (NAHB) Market Index came in weaker than expected last week to the lowest read in ten months, driven by rising cost pressures and the low availability of lumber and other building materials. 

And now we have House Starts below consensus. Both Housing Starts and Building Permits for May came in weaker than expected for the second consecutive month. Starts haven’t fallen far from their March peak, but Building Permits are down more than 10% from their January peak and saw declines in every region of the country.

Building permits fell 3.0% to a 7-month low of 1.681 million units v consensus estimate of 1.730 m  - a  2.8% miss

Rental boom perhaps - Single-family rents rose 5.3% YoY in April, the largest 1-year gain in nearly 15 years.

May Retail Sales came in below expectations by a meaningful margin, dropping -1.3% MoM versus expectations for a decline of -0.8%. Ex-autos, the miss was by more than a full percentage point. One positive note is that April’s originally reported numbers were revised upwards, so the net is pretty much a wash.

Philly Fed last week followed the NY Empire with signs of the manufacturing sector peaking out. Survey came in at 30.7% in June, below 31% e from 31.5% in May and well below April’s 50.2%. Orders softened to 6 month low & backlogs down to 3-month low. Even delivery time index fell from 41.5% to 29.3% AND workweek subindex dropped to a 6-month low.

Economic Data to Watch THIS WEEK

Tuesday, June 22

May Existing Home Sales - (Last REPORT) Existing home sales in the US unexpectedly sank 2.7% to 5.858 million in April of 2021, compared to forecasts of a 2% rise. That’s 3 consecutive months of declines as housing supply continues to fall short of demand.

Wednesday, June 23: 

Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index -Last report mortgage applications in the US increased 4.2% in the week ending June 11th, the first rise in 4 weeks, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed. We’ll be watching because the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to the highest level since mid-April at 3.25% in reaction to the Fed.

May New Home Sales - Prior reports (Sales of new single family houses in the US sank 5.9 percent month-over-month to an annualized rate of 863 thousand in April of 2021, well below forecasts of 970 thousand, amid soaring prices due to rising material costs. The March reading was also revised sharply lower to 917 thousand from 1,021 thousand.)

Markit Flash Manufacturing & Service PMIs for June

Thursday, June 24: 

Weekly and Continuing Jobless Claims - past week surprised with an increase versus expected decline

May Durable Orders - last report - New orders for US manufactured durable goods fell 1.3% MoM in April of 2021, following an upwardly revised 1.3% rise in March and defying market forecasts of a 0.7% increase. It is the first decline in durable goods orders in almost a year

1Q 2021 GDP – Third Estimate

Friday, June 25: 

May Personal Income & Spending

Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – Final Reading

Advisorpedia's Week Ahead ... Powered by Tematica Research.

Resources: Tematica Research | Chris Versace | Lenore Hawkins

Related: The Week Ahead: We Are Still in Camp Transitory

Join Tematica Research's Chief Macro Strategist, Lenore Hawkins, and Chief Investment Officer, Chris Versace, as they discuss and debate what's driving the market and the economy this week.

Markets last week

This week’s theme… fade the cover story. WSJ cover story, Inflation at 13-year high

Markets were unconcerned by the slightly hotter than expected inflation numbers. 

Last Thursday, after the hotter-than-expected CPI data came in, the S&P 500 rose 0.5% to close at a new all-time high

The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.1%, 

In a testament to 2021 word of the year, “Transitory,” in the hours after the CPI data came out, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped 5 basis points

Over the prior 5 days ending Thursday’s close

TLT up 3.3% - LT BONDS STRONGEST PERFORMERS

Nasdaq staging a comeback with Nasdaq 100 up 3.2% and Composite up 3.0%

Russell 2000 - up 1.8%

S&P 500 up 1.1%

DJIA down -0.3%

VIX down more than 10%

Bitcoin down 4%

Key Economic Data and Related Events LAST WEEK

Consumer Credit in the US rose by $18.6 billion in April after a downwardly revised $18.6 billion gain in March, well below expectations for a $22 billion increase. Revolving credit fell by $2.0 billion while non-revolving rose by $20.7 million.

Mortgage applications in the US declined 3.1% during the week ended June 4. This was the third consecutive weekly decline with refinancing down 5.1%, pushing the index to its lowest level since February 2020 while purchases rose 0.3%. 

Economic Data to Watch THIS WEEK

Tuesday, June 15: 

May Retail Sales - We’ve talked before 

Homeowners pulled out $49 billion in equity in Q1

That’s the highest level since 2007 (up nearly 80% YoY

That was A LOT of cashflow support in Q1. Now for Q2, no more stimulus and will HELOCs or refis continue at this pace for cash outs?

May Producer Price Index

Likely to be hot

May Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

How is capacity - we suspect given supply challenges, it won’t be heating up much

June Empire State Manufacturing Index

June NAHB Housing Market Index - any cooling?

April Business Inventories - 

Wednesday, June 16: 

Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index

Last week mortgage applications came out for the June 4th week and fell 3.1% on top of a 4.0% turndown the prior week  and  slipping  now  in  five  of  the  past  seven  weeks.  Over  this interval, they have plunged 11% and are down at an annual rate of 41% year-to-date. And the level? Dialed all the way back to where it was when the pandemic broke back on February 14th, 2020.

May Housing Starts & Building Permits

May Import-Export Prices

June FOMC Rate Decision

Thursday, June 17: 

Weekly and Continuing Jobless Claims 

June Philly Fed Index

Earnings of NOTE THIS WEEK

Tuesday, June 15

Oracle (ORCL) - Barometer of enterprise spending and we’ll see if the cloud capacity constraints it discussed in March have abated or persisted amid unprescedented demand

Wednesday, June 16 

Lennar (LEN) - housing demand, pricepoints, comments on whether pricing is boxing potential buyers out; lumber and other pricing comments

Thursday, June 17

Kroger (KR) - trends during the quarter as well as its guidance will tell us to what degree consumers are still focused on eating at home vs. dining  out; we’ll also want an update on its private label business that has been pivoting more and more with our Cleaner Living investing theme

Adobe (ADBE) - With companies adopting a digital first mind set, which productivity tools have benefitted and which ones does the company see gaining momentum in the back half of 2021? One area of interest for us will be electronic signatures…

Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI) - FBI NICS Firearm background checks are up 17% YoY for the 3-months ending in May; while firearm stocks may not be everyone’s cup of tea, the company is likely to put up a good quarter. 

Advisorpedia's Week Ahead ... Powered by Tematica Research.

Related: The Week Ahead: Is the Country Just Jacked up on Stimulus?

Join Tematica Research's Chief Macro Strategist, Lenore Hawkins, and Chief Investment Officer, Chris Versace, as they discuss and debate what's driving the market and the economy this week.

Last week markets

Nasdaq Composite down -0.9% (YTD +5.6%)

S&P 500 flat (YTD +11.6%)

Dow up 0.7% (YTD +13%)

Russell up 0.3% (YTD +15.4%)\

Bitcoin is also hanging on to its rebound this week somewhat at $37k - $38k up 33% YTD after hitting nearly $64k in mid April

Gold can’t handle the risk-on momentum here and is down to under $1,869 an ounce as is basically flat on the year - broke $2k last August

Last Week STOCKS and EARNINGS

The meme stocks are back and no one is yawning here. Through Thursday’s close

Nokia (NOK) up 10.7%

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) up 20.4%

Koss Corp (KOSS) up 48.3%

Blackberry Ltd (BB) up 68.0%

AMC Entertainment up 160.1% (Was up 95% Wednesday then down 23% Thursday)

Thursday Twitter (TWTR) unveiled Twitter Blue, its first-ever subscription offering, which is going live in Canada and Australia for its initial phase so that the company can better understand what users want.

Costco Wholesale (COST): latest monthly sales data - double digit gains across the board - consumers are still in spend mode during May

Cybersecurity stocks got a boost. Over the weekend, meat processing company JBS SA (JBSAY) determined its Australian and North American units were the target of an organized cybersecurity attack, affecting some of the servers supporting its North American and Australian IT systems. 

United Airlines (UA) looking to revive supersonic travel.

Economic Data — Last Week

Friday’s jobs # disappointed with 559k new jobs v 671k(e) but up from 266k(p)

UR fell to 5.9% from 6.1% while broader measure at 10.2%

Global food prices rose by the biggest margin in a decade according to the UN Food an Agriculture Organization’s monthly index, which jumped 40% in May.

Global housing markets in a bubble?

We’re already seeing Q2 estimates coming under the knife 

This Week

Tuesday, June

April Trade Balances - trade deficit in March widened to a new record high of $74.4b from $70.5 in Feb driven by a 6.3% increase in imports to an all-time high. Exports rose 6.6% to a 13-month high

JOLTS report - job opening rose 597k to 8.123 million in March - the highest level on record going back to Dec 2000 and well above expectations for 7.5m

Wednesday, June 9

Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index - Just saw 4% drop following a 4.2% decline

April Wholesale Inventories - growth has been slowing (April +08% after downwardly revised +1.1% in March)

Thursday, June 10 

Weekly and Continuing Jobless Claims

May Consumer Price Index

May Treasury Budget - does anyone even care anymore? Biden has indicated he is willing to drop his demands for an increase in the US corporate tax rate if enough Republicans agree to support his surge in infrastructure spending

Friday, June 11 

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – Preliminary

STOCKS & EARNINGS — This Week 

Monday, June 7

Marvell (MRVL) - Company is a leading supplier to Samsung, Nokia and Ericsson, so we want to know what it sees on the chip shortage front, how is it impacting its business and when does the company see it coming to an end? Also, what’s it outlook for the second half of the year, particularly on the 5G front?

Tuesday, June 8: 

Navistar (NAV) - Trucks are one of the life bloods of the economy - does the company see a rebound in new orders, and if so is it because the economy is heating up or because of growing demand for e-Trucks?

Calavo Growers (CWGW) - restaurants!

Wednesday, June 9: 

Brown Forman (BF-B:NYSE) - restaurants

RH (RH) - company recently shared in its shareholder letter that it plan on leveraging its brand to expand its business, we hope to learn more on that but also if it sees any slowdown in the housing sector…

Thursday, June 10: 

National Beverage (FIZZ) - aside from word on any new flavors for its sparkling soda line, is the company continuing to take share from sugary beverages and those  that are artifically sweetened?

Chewy (CHWY) - was a winner during the pandemic, but has its subscription business ramped enough to overcome any potential bump in the road as pandemic restrictions are lifted?

Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) - Should be a reopening winner as people look to get out and do… almost anything… but we’ve heard quite a bit about the company taking over empty mall space, particulary from large anchor tenents that have vacated — is that back on track?

Advisorpedia's Week Ahead ... Powered by Tematica Research.

Related: The Week Ahead: Ford Is Preparing for War, With Tesla

Join Tematica Research's Chief Macro Strategist, Lenore Hawkins, and Chief Investment Officer, Chris Versace, as they discuss and debate what's driving the market and the economy this week.

Last Week's Market

Gold hit 4-month high

Bitcoin - found support post Elon Musk reversal on his crypto views

YTD returns

Nasdaq Composite 6.6%

S&P 500 11.8%

Dow 12.6% 

NYSE Composite 13.8%

VIX - 26.4%

TLT -12.1%

Gold flat

Bitcoin up 31.5%

Economic recap 

International

Germany Ifo biz sentiment smashed expectations, hitting 2-year high with entire euro area catching a material tailwind through Q2.

Europe catching up, China & US are in the process of hitting peak rates of growth and moderating

US

Univ Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey - sub indicator looks at the buying conditions subindices (largehousehold durable goods, autos and housing). In short, this measures when consumers are confident they will spend — this metric has now sunk to the lowest level since the depths of the financial crisis back in October 2008.

Seeing downward revisions in Q2 GDP estimates

There continue to be tremendous distortions in the data that will continue mostly through September.

Nearly 16m American still on at least one benefit program versus an average of 2m pre-pandemic. This will take a while to unwind and is a headwind to growth

Preliminary estimate for Q1 saw corporate profits fall -0.8% after a -3.3% decline in Q4.

Earnings of Note

Nvidia (NVDA)

Costco Wholesale (COST)

lululemon Athletica (LULU)

GAP (gPS) - Athleta!

Cleaner Living theme

Ford (F) has gained more than 25% since the start of last week, rising to its highest level since 2015. Thursday RBC upgraded shares to outperform from sector perform over the company’s updated business strategy that makes its EV plans more clear. The company reported that it received 20k preorders for its F-150 lightening truck in the first 12 hours after its reveal.  The company also announced a JV with South Korea’s SK Innovation on a facility capable of making enough batteries to power the equivalent of 600k all-electric vehicles per year. The company expected 40% of its sales to come from EVs by 2030.

Microsoft (MSFT) observed “This week we observed cyberattacks by the threat actor Nobelium targeting government agencies, think tanks, consultants, and non-governmental organizations. This wave of attacks targeted approximately 3,000 email accounts at more than 150 different organizations. While organizations in the United States received the largest share of attacks, targeted victims span at least 24 countries.” Nobelium, originating from Russia, is the same actor behind the attacks on SolarWinds (SWI) customers in 2020.

Next week

Tuesday, June 1

Ambarella (AMBA) - 

Zoom Video (ZM) - What does it see as employers re-open door and folks begin to work less from home?

Wednesday, May 26

Cloudera (CLDR) 

 PVH (PVH) - 

 Splunk (SPLK) - Cybersecurity!

 Thursday, June 3

Broadcom (AVGO) -  5G handsets and connective chips — timing of this report vs. June quarter reporting - will be watching for comments on chip shortages, supply chain issues

ChargePoint (CHPT) -  What are its plans to expand its charging station footprint and the EV landscape heats up? Miles per charge and time to recharge an EV battery are still someof the sticking points for EV holdouts.

lululemon Athletica (LULU) - Based on Gaps’ April quarter results with Athleta, LULU likely crushed it, but will that continue as folks head back to the office and need up update their business or biz casual wardrobe?

And as the pace of quarterly earnings reports ticks lower, investors will have a pickup in IB investment conferences including

Deutsche Bank dbaccess 11th Annual Global Financial Services Conference 2021

Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference 2021

William Blair 41st Annual Growth Stock Conference 2021

Cowen and Company 49th Annual Technology Media and Telecom Conference-TMT 2021

Advisorpedia's Week Ahead ... Powered by Tematica Research.

Related: The Week Ahead: Is the Bitcoin Bubble Bursting?

Join Tematica Research's Chief Macro Strategist, Lenore Hawkins, and Chief Investment Officer, Chris Versace, as they discuss and debate what's driving the market and the economy this week.

Last Week's Market

Stocks rebounded a bit Thursday to end a 3-day losing streak. The S&P 500 rose 1.2%, with 445 of its components gaining on the day, to leave it down 2.8% for the week. The Dow added 1.3%, leaving it down 2.2% on the week, and the Nasdaq rose 0.7% bringing it to a 4.6% loss on the week while the Russell 2000 gained 1.7%, leaving it down 4.4%. 

Economic recap 

Friday’s Retails Sales (incl Food) flat MoM (expected +1%) up 51.2% YoY  Excluding Food -0.3% MoM +46.1% YoY 

Control group sales, which exclude more volatile categories including food services, car dealers, and gasoline stations, dropped 1.5% in April after an upwardly revised 7.6% jump in March

Clothing-store sales dropped 5.1% after a 22.7% surge

Sales at non-store retailers, which include e-commerce, fell 0.6% in April

General merchandise store sales fell 4.9% and the value of purchases at sporting goods outlets dropped 3.6%

Inflation fears are overdone, but overvalued asset classes like equities need perfection to keep the ball rolling. The perception that the Fed is behind the curve, and is getting further behind, is never a very good thing for the market multiple. 

Pricey Market?

The Buffett Yardstick, or total market capitalization of the U.S. equity market relative to the overall size of the economy, now stands at 270%. 

Peak of Dotcom Mania, this measure only reached 188% so we are now over 40% more expensive than the most expensive stock market peak in history

That means that at today’s valuation, the stock market would need to fall 30% overnight in order to match the peak of what is widely considered the greatest bubble in modern history.

The bubble is also broader. The median price-to-sales ratio of S&P 500 Index components is now almost 75% higher than it was at the peak of the Dotcom Mania. In other words, unlike that previous bubble which was confined to just a subset, the current bubble encompasses a much greater proportion of the overall stock market.

The Bitcoin bubble is bursting as it slides below $50,000 as Tesla (TSLA)’s Elon Musk suspended vehicle purchases using the cryptocurrency.

Digital currencies are under pressure in general

Elon Musk hosting SNL just might have been a classic market top

Tesla stock peaked a while ago and is now down 30% since it announced its investment in Bitcoin three months ago

Economic Data to Watch This Week

Two regional Fed manufacturing indices for May (first look at May!) and April Housing Starts (the focus will be single-family)

Monday, May 17: May Empire State Manufacturing Index; May NAHB Housing Market Index; March Net Long-term TIC Flows.

Tuesday, May 18: April Housing Starts & Building Permits

Wednesday, May 19: Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index; Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories.

Thursday, May 20: Weekly and Continuing Jobless Claims; EIA Natural Gas Inventory report; May Philly Fed Manufacturing Index; April Leading Indicators.

Friday, May 21: April Existing Home Sales.

Advisorpedia's Week Ahead ... Powered by Tematica Research.

Related: The Week Ahead: Are We at the Point Where Trillions Is Considered Relatively Small?

Join Tematica Research's Chief Macro Strategist, Lenore Hawkins, and Chief Investment Officer, Chris Versace, as they discuss and debate what's driving the market and the economy this week.

"Well, we have almost made it through what was the busiest week of earnings season for the S&P 500, a lot of economic data, and an FOMC decision! Lots of news, but there was little downside associated with any of them as equities continue to defy gravity AND 2021 is already a third over! "

Monday we’ll be looking at the final Markit and ISM Manufacturing PMIs for April for how the exceptionally strong manufacturing sector is evolving with ISM data tending to be more influenced by global economic growth and foreign earnings than IHS Markit PMI. We will also be looking at Construction Spending for March, which fell for the first time in February after four consecutive months of gains, to see if residential construction is still red hot and what about new office space these days?

Tuesday brings Total Vehicle Sales for April in light of weak inventory levels due to the semiconductor chip shortage. We’ll also look at Factory Orders for March, which had dropped 0.8% in February, the first decline in April 2020. 

Wednesday brings the ADP Employment report for April which is basically a private sector preview of the week’s biggest report, the April Employment report from the Labor Department that comes on Friday. Given the consecutive pandemic-era record low reports for initial jobless claims over the past few weeks. Expectations are for 750k new jobs from the ADP report after March’s increase of 517k. We will also get the Markit and ISM Service sector reports, which should show material improvements as lockdowns have been easing and we can finally repair the lockdown-induced(perhaps a wee bit of wine inspired) 9pm self-administered haircuts.

Thursday we will be looking to see if the recently impressive downward trend in Initial Jobless Claimscontinues. We will also get the preliminary Nonfarm Productivity Report for Q1 which will likely show a decline given the rate of hiring in the first quarter.

Friday brings what will be the most impactful report, April’s Non-Farm Payroll report which is expected to see an increase of 925k jobs after an increase of 916k in March.

Advisorpedia's Week Ahead ... Powered by Tematica Research.

Resources: Tematica Research | Chris Versace | Lenore Hawkins

Welcome to Advisorpedia's Week Ahead. The must listen podcast of your Monday.

What happened last week and ahead for this week.

Last week — what a week…

The start of the March quarter earnings season and a cornupcopia of data that that has us asking the Q: HAVE WE - investors - PRICED IN TOO MUCH OF AN ECONOMIC REBOUND OR NOT ENOUGH?

What does that data mean for the Biden Administration’s stimulus plans?

What about the cost side of the equation as signs point to rising input costs..

Since peaking on March 15th, the Russell 2000 index last week was over 4% lower whereas the S&P 500 has gone on to gain an additional 5%. So, over the last month or so, small cap stocks have lagged by over 9 percentage points.

Charles Schwab added more clients in just 3 months in Q1 of 2021 (3.2 million) than in all of 2020. Why? According to Schwab’s CEO - Greater interest in high-growth tech companies and meme stocks. 

Looking for something “cheap” to buy? Maybe as a hedge to your cryptocurrency exposure? Try the VIX at 16.9. Back to the level of complacency in mid-February 2020.

The rally in the DXY dollar index from the January 5th low of 89.4 to the March 30th nearby high of 93.3 has been totally snuffed out as Fed official after Fed official has refused to succumb to the bond vigilante pressure — and is at a crucial technical juncture as it tests the 50-day moving average in this most recent corrective phase. 

Retail Sales for March report blew away the already high expectations, jumping 9.8% MoM after a downwardly revised -2.7% contraction in February, handily beating expectations for a mere 5.9% increase amidst re-openings, warmer weather, and those $1,400 stimulus checks that were put to use. 

Fed Manufacturing data blew out the doors as well. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index for April saw the strongest growth in factory activity in the region in almost 50 years! Not too shabby Philly. 

Not to be outdone, the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index saw the strongest growth in business activity since October 2017 and came in at 26.3 from 17.4 versus expectations 19.5.

Mortgage applications for the week ended April 9 were down 3.7%, the sixth consecutive decline following last week’s 5.1% decline. The combination of rising rates, rising prices, and tight supply of homes is putting a damper on home sales and we expected to see March’s existing home sales to be below February’s levels.

We also got some of the final CPI data out of the euro area, but the commodity-induced March run-up had previously been flashed by the “flash” estimates.

AA anounced last week that it expects summer travel to hit pre-pandemic levels and will operate a nearly normal schedule.

National economic activity accelerated to a moderate pace from late February to early April. Outlooks were more optimistic than in the previous report, boosted in part by an acceleration in COVID- 19 vaccinations. Employment expectations were generally bullish.”

Coinbase (COIN) through a direct listing on the Nasdaq and it didn’t go quite as well as many had hoped. Nasdaq set a reference price of $225 but shares opened just over $380 and traded up to $429, but then sold off sharply into the close, finishing the day at $328. Still, it is now ranked at the seventh biggest new listing in the US of al time, so not exactly something to cry over. Thursday shares continued to struggle and closed lower again. To put the Coinbase market cap in context, it is now just below that of Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and above that of Nasdaq (NDAQ).

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) shared it is on track to exceed expectations with its Q1 revenue now seen as topping $1 billion, which implies a mid-teens increase compared to pre-COVID comparable from two years ago and the $904 million consensus. The company is set to report Q1 full results on May 1.

Ethan Allen Interiors (ETH) reported a record increase of 51.8% in written orders at its retail division for its FQ3 vs. the year ago quarter that was understandably impacted by the pandemic. The company expects to report consolidated net delivered sales of $177.0 million with adjusted EPS in the range of $0.56-$0.58 vs. the $0.47 consensus.

First quarter operating profit at Daimler AG’s (DDAIF) surged due to higher vehicle prices and strong demand in China powering its recovery from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. 

Volkswagen (VLKAF) reported its global sales expanded 53% YoY in March while deliveries for the March quarter climbed 21% YoY to 2,431,900 vehicles.

Nvidia (NVDA:Nasdaq) are on fire this week after the company said its quarterly revenue is tracking above it previous guidance that called for $5.3 billion. While the company didn’t provide a more specific revenue range it said the upside relative to prior expectations was due to "broad-based strength" across its end markets.

Apple (AAPL) will hold its latest event on April 20 with the tagline “Spring Loaded” with expectations calling for updates to its iPad Pro, iPad mini and AirPods lines.

Equities are reacting to brightening economic prospects while the Federal Reserve intends to keep the monetary stimulus punch flowing for the foreseeable future. Given the robust economic data of late, we’ll be watching to see how it will affect the Biden administration’s ability to pass its massive stimulus plan. 

Earnings to Watch This Week

Monday, April 19: Coca-Cola (KO:NYSE); IBM (IBM:NYSE); United Airlines (UAL:NYSE).

Tuesday, April 20: Abbot Labs (ABT:NYSE); AutoNation (AN:NYSE); Johnson & Johnson (JNJ:NYSE); Proctor & Gamble (PG:NYSE); CSX (CSX:NYSE); Netflix (NFLX:Nasdaq).

Wednesday, April 21: ASML (ASML:Nasdaq); Ericsson (ERIC:Nasdaq); NVR (NVR:NYSE); Verizon (VZ:NYSE);Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG:NYSE); Lam Research (LRCX:Nasdaq); Las Vegas Sands (LVS:NYSE); Whirlpool(WHR:NYSE). 

Thursday, April 22: Alaska Air (ALK:NYSE); American Airlines (AAL:NYSE); AT&T (T:NYSE); Citrix Systems(CTXS:Nasdaq); SAP SE (SAP:NYSE); Southwest Air (LUV:NYSE); Union Pacific (UNP:NYSE); Intel(INTC:Nasdaq).

Friday, April 23: American Express (AXP:NYSE); Honeywell (HON:NYSE); Kimberly Clark (KMB:NYSE).

Advisorpedia's Week Ahead ... Powered by Tematica Research.

Resources: Tematica Research | Chris Versace | Lenore Hawkins

Links: 

Future spending? Read this first. 

Roaring 20s? 

A must read every quarter from Hoisington Management