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This month’s jobs report looks strong on the surface, with 178,000 jobs added and unemployment ticking down—but a closer look tells a more complicated story. When I compare it against other data like job openings and layoffs, it still points to a slower, low-hiring environment, raising the question: is this a real shift, or just a standout month?

In this First Friday episode, I break down what’s driving the disconnect between major labor reports, what the Fed’s latest decision signals about inflation and interest rates, and how a sudden spike in oil prices could ripple through everything from mortgage rates to consumer sentiment. I also walk through recent market volatility and explain why long-term investors need to think differently about short-term swings.

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The headline jobs report came in much stronger than expected, but it diverges sharply from other labor data—meaning it could be revised and shouldn’t be viewed in isolation.

Job openings are declining, reinforcing a “low hire, low fire” environment where hiring has slowed even without widespread layoffs.

The Fed is holding interest rates steady due to persistent inflation concerns, signaling fewer expected rate cuts and continued pressure on borrowing costs.

Oil prices surged in March, pushing gas prices higher and adding inflation pressure across the broader economy.

Mortgage rates remain elevated due to rising Treasury yields, highlighting how inflation expectations continue to drive borrowing costs.

Recent market volatility reflects short-term uncertainty, but long-term investors are better served by focusing on fundamentals rather than reacting to daily swings.

Vicki Robin links:

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(0:00) A busy start to April
(1:03) A stronger than expected jobs report
(6:06) A softer picture for job openings
(7:13) Where layoffs are showing up
(10:15) Why the Fed held rates steady
(12:05) What’s keeping mortgage rates elevated
(21:05) Why gas prices rose so quickly
(27:28) How to think about market volatility
(30:20) A proposed change for 401k plans
(32:37) News from Vicki Robin
(40:55) A shift in student loan management
(42:37) What the end of SAVE means
(43:43) What borrowers should watch next
(45:16) Changes for Parent PLUS borrowers

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Where should you park money that you’ll need in three years? It’s a question that forces you to balance safety with returns, and resist the temptation to gamble on the stock market just because it’s been going up for 17 years.

In this Q&A episode, Joe and I answer three listener questions. Olivia is saving for a year-long sabbatical in 2029 and wants to know if a money market fund is right for a three-year goal.

Robert is 53, planning to retire in 3-4 years with 58% in Roth accounts, should he prioritize taxable accounts or keep maxing Roth?

And Anonymous (Julie) has 30 years in social work and wants to open an adult day center for people with disabilities in her rural area, but has no idea where to start.

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Olivia asks: My husband and I are saving for me to take a year off work in three years when he goes on an international assignment. I’ve been putting it in a Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund. Is this okay for a three-year goal?

Robert asks: I’m 53 and retiring in 3-4 years. I have 58% in Roth accounts and I’m doing 72(t) distributions from pre-tax accounts. Should I prioritize building taxable accounts or continue adding to Roth?

Anonymous “Julie” asks: I have 30 years in social work and am a parent to an adult with special needs. I live in a rural area with almost zero resources for disabled adults. My dream is to open an adult day center but I have no business experience. Should I structure it as an LLC or nonprofit? Where do I even start?

For three-year goals, money market funds, high-yield savings accounts, and T-Bill and Chill are all solid choices—there’s no wrong answer among these options because they all prioritize capital preservation over returns, which is exactly what you need for short-term goals.

If you choose T-Bill and Chill, buy individual T-bills through Treasury Direct, not a T-bill fund or ETF—funds buy treasuries on the open market where prices fluctuate, meaning you could see losses, while individual T-bills held to maturity guarantee your principal.

After 17 years of bull markets, it’s easy to mentally treat the stock market like a high-yield savings account—but for three-year goals, any exposure to volatility crosses the line from investing into gambling because you have no time to recover from a downturn.

When you’re 3-4 years from retirement with 58% in Roth and already managing pre-tax accounts with 72(t) distributions, prioritize building taxable accounts for early retirement spending—Roth is for later in retirement, taxable gives you penalty-free access before 59.5, and you’ve already front-loaded enough tax-free growth.

Starting a nonprofit focused on serving people with disabilities requires choosing between nonprofit status (grants, donations, tax-exempt) versus for-profit LLC (more flexibility, easier to start)—the key is understanding that nonprofits serve a mission first while for-profits serve profit first, and your funding model will largely determine which structure makes sense.

Grind – a book by Michael J McFall

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In this episode, I am joined by Jamie Hopkins, a leading retirement researcher and finance expert, to debunk the myth of the “magic number.” We explore why retirement planning is a dynamic process of constant adaptation rather than a static goal.

Jamie explains the psychological and mathematical flaws of focusing solely on a single savings target and provides a more resilient framework for managing risks like inflation, healthcare, and market volatility.

The Myth of the Magic Number: Why fixating on one specific dollar amount is dangerous. Retirement is an ongoing flow of income and expenses, not a stationary finish line.

The “Sequence of Returns” Reality: Understanding why the timing of market downturns matters more than the average return, and how to protect your portfolio in the “retirement red zone.”

Managing the Three Great Risks: A deep dive into how to build a strategy that accounts for the “Big Three”: longevity (outliving your money), inflation (rising costs), and health (unpredictable medical expenses).

The Power of Adaptability: Why the most successful retirees aren’t the ones with the most money, but the ones with the most flexibility to adjust their spending and lifestyle when the math changes.

Income vs. Assets: Shifting the mindset from “how much have I saved?” to “how much reliable monthly income can I generate?”

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Your Retirement Sketchbook by Jamie Hopkins

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Should you take a $30,000 raise right before you retire? It’s the kind of question that forces you to ask what you’re really optimizing for—money, or something else entirely.

In this Q&A episode, Joe and I answer three questions: Melanie is four years from FI but a high-stress job with a big raise just opened up, should she take it when the money won’t change her timeline?

Ami wants to learn about investing but can’t tell legitimate courses from scams. And Ben follows up from Episode 243—he’s gone from 4 units to 16 units and wants to know his next move.

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Melanie asks: I’m 4 years from FI and a job opened up offering a $30,000 raise—but with more stress. The money doesn’t really move the needle on my timeline. Should I take it?

Ami asks: How do I tell legitimate investing courses from scams? Can you recommend trusted instructors or courses?

Ben asks (follow-up from Episode 243): I’ve grown from 4 units to 16 units. Should I sell everything to buy a 40-unit building or keep growing gradually? Also, how do I get institutional financing when hard money lenders are charging 12% and 4 points?

Episode #652: Interview with Rose Han

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Can your beliefs actually change your biology? What if the only thing standing between you and breakthrough results isn’t skill, resources, or luck—but the limiting beliefs you carry about what’s possible?

In this conversation, I talk with Nir Eyal, bestselling author of “Hooked,” “Indistractable,” and his latest book “Beyond Belief: The Science-Backed Way to Stop Limiting Yourself and Achieve Breakthrough Results.”

Nir walks us through the science behind how beliefs shape our reality, from placebo effects so powerful they can cause physical symptoms, to why manifesting outcomes backfires while mental contrasting works.

We discuss why motivation is about escaping discomfort, how our brains process 11 million bits of information per second but we only consciously attend to about 50, and why being generous with money but stingy with time might be the better approach.

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The Problem with Vision Boards: Why visualizing the “end goal” can drop your blood pressure and make you less likely to do the work.

Motivation is Pain Management: Why all human motivation is simply a desire to escape discomfort, and how to use that to your advantage.

Mental Contrasting: The “athlete’s secret” to visualization that focuses on obstacles rather than just the trophy.

The Reality Distortion Field: How entrepreneurs like Anne Mahlum (founder of Solidcore) see opportunities where others see nothing.

The 4 Question Turnaround Exercise by Byron Katie

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Should you reduce your retirement contributions to save for a house down payment faster?

It’s a question that forces you to choose between two competing financial goals—and the answer isn’t as simple as picking one over the other.

In this Q&A episode, Joe and I tackle three listener questions about financial trade-offs.

Hannah and her spouse are federal employees in their mid-30s wondering if they should dial back their TSP contributions to accelerate saving for a $200,000 down payment—while keeping their current low-rate mortgage as a rental. 

We also hear from Amelia, a part-time healthcare provider navigating 401(k) and IRA contributions. And Leslie asks a question that made me go “aw”—about how to spread financial wisdom more broadly.

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Hannah asks: My spouse and I are federal employees maxing out our TSPs (getting the full 5% match) and have pension eligibility. We’ve saved $20,000 toward a down payment and currently save $900/month, but we want to reach $200,000 within 5 years to buy our forever home while keeping our current house as a rental.

My dad suggests reducing our retirement contributions to redirect $2,000/month now and $3,200/month after August (when childcare costs drop). He also suggested investing the down payment money in a brokerage account for higher returns. Should we do this? Also, my husband has an opportunity to move across the country for work—should we rent while building our house fund?

Amelia asks: I’m a healthcare provider working part-time. How should I think about 401(k) and IRA contributions when I’m not working full-time hours?

Leslie asks: I love how even your guests benefit from your articulation of financial ideas. How can we reach more people with this wisdom? How do we grow financial literacy beyond just the people who already listen to podcasts like this?

Never reduce retirement contributions below the employer match—giving up a 5% match to save for a house means leaving guaranteed returns on the table that you can never get back.

Before deciding how much to save for any goal, first figure out how much you actually need—run retirement projections to determine if you’re on track or if you can afford to temporarily redirect funds without jeopardizing long-term security.

Down payment savings should stay in high-yield savings accounts, not brokerage accounts—when you need money in 3-5 years, you cannot afford the volatility risk of the stock market.

Working part-time doesn’t mean you should skip retirement savings—it means you need to be more strategic about maximizing tax-advantaged space and making every dollar count toward your long-term goals.

The best way to spread financial wisdom is one person at a time—teach what you know, mentor someone earlier in their journey, and recognize that helping others strengthens your own financial knowledge.

Afford Anything Episode #684

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What does it take to find work you actually love—not just tolerate, not just survive, but genuinely love? And is it even possible if you’re in your 50s and still don’t know what that is?

In this conversation, I talk with Bill Gurley, general partner at Benchmark Capital and author of “Runnin’ Down a Dream: How to Thrive in a Career You Actually Love.”

Bill walks us through the principles from his book about building a career around fascination rather than passion, why continuous learning is non-negotiable, and how to live on “the edge” of your field to stay relevant.

We discuss why the number one regret people have at the end of their lives is inaction, how to know when it’s time to make a career shift, and why being dismissive of new technologies like AI might be the worst thing you can do for your career.

Bill also shares stories of people who found their dream jobs—from a lawyer who became a Michelin-starred chef to a hairstylist who built a beauty empire—and explains why the path to work you love rarely follows a straight line.

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Follow fascination, not passion—passion is an overloaded word that creates pressure, while fascination is the test of whether you’d study something in your spare time instead of watching Netflix, and it’s the fuel that makes continuous learning feel effortless rather than like a grind.

Continuous learning is the non-negotiable foundation of career success—you must be fascinated enough with your field that learning feels free and natural, because the people who thrive are those who study their craft like artisans, constantly exploring nuance and staying on the edge of their domain.

Live on the edge of your field to stay relevant—the edge is where new technologies, techniques, and possibilities emerge first, and being the most informed person in your organization about what’s changing makes you the most valuable employee, not the most vulnerable to disruption.

Regrets of inaction haunt us more than mistakes—Daniel Pink’s research shows people are remarkably good at forgiving themselves for things they tried and failed at, but the things we never attempted grow larger in our minds over time, making boldness the antidote to end-of-life regret.

Financial flexibility is the key to career optionality—if you’re spending every dollar you earn, your ability to explore, shift careers, or take risks is severely limited, so controlling spending (especially early in your career) is essential for maximizing your freedom to pursue work you love.

Runnin’ Down a Dream by Bill Gurley

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Should your emergency fund chase yields, or should you prioritize stability over returns? It’s a question we haven’t had to ask for years, but as interest rates drop, savers are facing a new reality.

In this Q&A episode, we tackle four listener questions that span the practical and the philosophical. We start with a listener wondering whether to chase higher yields by moving their emergency fund into bond funds or CD ladders, now that high-yield savings rates are declining.

From there, we help a Canadian listener decide whether dimensional funds are worth the extra complexity and cost, then dive into bridge loans for homebuyers who need to buy before they sell.

We close with a follow-up from Nick, who previously asked about investing for his nephew, he’s back to share how he implemented our advice and to ask a new question that gets at the heart of work-life balance: do you stay in a high-paying job that drains you, or take a pay cut for something that gives you more life?

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Jeremy asks: My emergency fund is in a high-yield savings account, but with the Fed cutting rates, yields are dropping. Should I move it into a bond fund or create a CD ladder to squeeze out an extra percent or two? Or should emergency funds stay in cash? Also, a recent guest said to save 12 months of expenses—I’m only at 3 months. Is 12 months really necessary?

Anonymous “Celine” asks (from Canada): I’ve built a complex portfolio following the efficient frontier, including dimensional funds. Should I keep using dimensional funds given their higher expense ratios (0.27-0.33% vs 0.06-0.11% for comparable ETFs)? And separately, I’m burned out at my job—should I take a significant pay cut to work part-time and have more life, even though it means delaying FIRE?

Anonymous “John” asks: What are the pros and cons of bridge loans when buying a new home before selling your current one? They seem like a good way to avoid contingent offers, but I rarely hear them discussed—am I missing major downsides?

Nick asks (follow-up from Episode 637): I opened a brokerage account for my nephew as you suggested, with him as beneficiary. My plan is to make monthly contributions and eventually transfer shares to him via in-kind gifts. But here’s my new question: I’m considering leaving my stable corporate job for something with more purpose but less pay—how do I think through this trade-off?

Emergency funds should stay in high-yield savings accounts, not bonds or CD ladders—the purpose of an emergency fund is liquidity and stability, not maximizing returns, and bond funds can lose principal value when you need access to cash most.

The right emergency fund size depends on both risk tolerance (psychological comfort) and risk capacity (your actual situation)—dual-income households need less than single earners, and workers in high-demand fields like healthcare need less than those in volatile industries.

Dimensional funds’ factor tilts (small cap, value) haven’t consistently outperformed simple market-cap-weighted index funds over the past decade, making their higher expense ratios (0.27-0.33% vs 0.06-0.11%) hard to justify unless you have strong conviction in factor investing.

Bridge loans are expensive and risky because they create a hard deadline to sell your current home—if you don’t sell in time, you face foreclosure or must refinance at potentially terrible rates, making them a last resort rather than a standard tool.

When considering a career change that trades income for quality of life, run the numbers on how it affects your FIRE timeline, but also recognize that your 40s, 50s, and 60s matter just as much as your theoretical retirement years—optimizing only for future freedom can mean sacrificing present fulfillment.

Episode #684 Cullen Roche part 1

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The jobs report that dropped today sent shockwaves through the markets, the US lost 92,000 jobs in February, completely defying expectations of a 60,000 job gain. How do we make sense of data that seems to contradict itself?

In this First Friday episode, I break down the confusing signals coming from different employment reports (BLS vs ADP vs JOLTS), explore what’s really happening in the labor market, and explain why productivity growth might be both good news and concerning news at the same time.

I also dive into the three layers of the economy: the household economy (jobs, wages, housing), markets and policy (tariffs, Fed decisions), and long-term structural forces (AI’s impact on work).

We’re joined by Dr. Ben Zweig, CEO of Revelio Labs, who helps us interpret the jobs data and explains what labor market trends really tell us about the economy. This episode offers a framework for understanding economic news that goes beyond the headlines, helping you see how macro trends connect to your personal financial decisions.

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The BLS report showed the US lost 92,000 jobs in February while the ADP report showed a gain of 63,000 jobs. This contradiction stems from different methodologies (BLS includes government jobs, ADP only tracks private sector) and highlights why you shouldn’t overreact to any single month’s data.

Job-hopping wage premiums have hit record lows. Workers who switch jobs now earn only 6.3% more than those who stay, compared to much larger premiums earlier in the recovery, signaling the labor market has cooled significantly.

The JOLTS data shows only 6.54 million job openings in December, the lowest since the pandemic began, with particularly sharp drops in professional services, retail, and finance, suggesting employers are pulling back on hiring plans.

Productivity growth is surging even as job growth stalls, meaning the economy is expanding without adding workers. This reflects AI and automation doing more work, which is both economically efficient and potentially disruptive for workers.

As AI makes intelligence cheaper, the scarce human skills become judgment, vision, taste, and relationship-building. Workers who can orchestrate AI systems and set strategic direction will thrive, while purely execution-focused roles face displacement.

Bureau of Labor Statistics Economic News Release

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Will AI take your job? In Part 2 of my conversation with Ben Zweig, we move beyond theory into the practical chaos of how work actually functions in today’s economy.

Ben and I dive deep into why there are 90 million unique job titles (yes, really), how LLMs are finally solving the job categorization problem that has plagued labor markets for decades, and why we organize work into arbitrary categories in the first place.

We explore the philosophical question of taxonomy—from dogs and cats to humans and job titles—and discuss how the level of detail we need depends entirely on our familiarity with a domain.

The conversation then shifts to Keynes’ famous prediction that we’d work 15-hour weeks by 2030, why he was both spectacularly wrong and surprisingly right, and what this tells us about human nature and our insatiable appetite for consumption.

We close with Ben’s mother’s career transformation from typist to database administrator, a perfect example of how jobs evolve gradually even when technology disrupts them dramatically, and why firms adopt new technology much more slowly than we think, giving workers time to adapt.

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There are 90 million unique job titles in the economy, creating massive inefficiency in labor markets—but LLMs can finally solve this categorization problem by analyzing the actual tasks described in job postings and resumes rather than relying on arbitrary titles.

Job titles are social constructs that exist for coordination purposes, not because they reflect fundamental differences in work—a product manager at Indeed might be an engineering lead while a product manager at Amazon does client success, making titles meaningless without understanding the underlying tasks.

Taxonomy is the art of choosing the right level of abstraction for your needs—finance departments only care about broad categories (sales vs R&D), while talent acquisition needs granular distinctions (DevOps manager vs infrastructure developer).

Keynes predicted 15-hour work weeks by 2030 because productivity has grown faster than he expected, but he underestimated our appetite for consumption and new desires—we don’t run out of things to want, which creates endless demand for human labor.

The VC funding model has fundamentally shifted from valuing companies on forward earnings to valuing them on current revenue multiples because AI makes the future so unpredictable that you can’t discount uncertain future cashflows back to present value.

Dr. Ben Zweig’s LinkedIn 

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