AFL Fantasy with The Traders

A lot of experienced AFL Fantasy coaches will tell you to back your premiums. "They'll come good" they say. They suggest to build your team around the out of form players and it will be better in the long run.

Up until this week, Dayne Zorko (MID, $576,000) owners could be forgiven for not heeding this advice. The man who averaged 114 last season was having a stinking start to the year averaging 66.5 and with his scoring gradually getting worse with a run of 72, 63, 55 and 43 up until round six.

His 176 on the weekend was not only the highest score of the round, it was a reward for the 3.9 per cent of coaches who opted not to trade him out in Fantasy Classic.

Already this week he is one of the most popular players traded in after dropping a total of $229,000, the most of any player this season. A breakeven of 58 means Zorko's price will be heading north of the $576,000 he is currently valued at.

Zorko faces the Bulldogs this week and last time he played them at Etihad Stadium, he scored 157.

Jack Billings (FWD, $551,000) appears in more than 25 per cent of teams and his coaches have been frustrated by his season to date. Scores of 64 and 66 in the past fortnight has seen his price drop to $115,000 below where he started and he is showing he is a long way from the premium selection many initially thought.

The Saint averaged 94.5 last year in what was a breakout season for the 22-year-old.

A key statistic is that he averaged more than 100 in St Kilda's wins last year. In their only win of 2018, he scored 123. From round seven Billings averaged 101.3 after starting the year averaging 76.6. This year he currently averaging 78.6. Could we see a turn around?

Another player who coaches expected more from is Luke Parker (MID, $623,000). The Swan was seen as under-priced at the start of the year due to the fact he has averaged 110 previously.

A midfield spot is wasted on a supposed premium Fantasy player who has scored 73, 80 and 73 in the last three weeks.

Similar to Billings, Parker's season started slowly (no tons in first seven weeks of 2017) but improved from this point. The 26-year-old went at 108 points per game from round eight.

Will history repeat? The Traders discuss whether you should hold or fold under-performing stars on this week's episode of the Official AFL Fantasy Podcast.

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The Traders chat round seven teams LIVE. For more Fantasy content, head to afl.com.au/fantasy

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Although there were a few premiums that let AFL Fantasy Classic coaches down on the weekend - Roy is filthy with Patrick Dangerfield, Calvin isn't happy with Kade Simpson and Warnie is ready to rage trade Luke Parker - it is the bargain basement players who dictated a lot of the scores over the weekend.

Many coaches moved heaven and earth to get Tim English (RUC/FWD, $427,000) onto their field last week by 'throwing' away a bench ruck spot. His dual position status meant he could slot into the Fantasy 22 up forward. Why were coaches keen on doing this? His three previous scores of 86, 90 and 107 were far better than what was being dished up by other rookies.

English scored just 38 last Friday night to start the weekend on a sour note.

The Bulldogs' second year ruckman has increased $240K and his breakeven (the score needed to maintain his price) is now 43. As a result, some coaches are looking to use his value to upgrade him to a premium in the forward line.

He's not the only cash cow whose time is up.

Nick Holman (MID, $355,000) saw his first price drop this week after posting 30 against the Crows. His season earnings sit at $185,000 and with a breakeven of 68, this may start dwindling considering his average over his last five games is 56.

The Sun is currently the most traded out player ahead of round seven.

Playing Nicholas Coffield (DEF/MID, $354,000) for his 21 points in Tassie caused a few headaches when he was unique in a head-to-head match ups. As the Saints' breakeven is now 52, getting close to his average of 60.5, his price growth might be limited.

Roy, Calvin and Warnie discuss which players you should consider the traditional upgrade/downgrade moves with this week on the Official AFL Fantasy Podcast. When is the right time to buy? When is the right time to sell? Listen in for expert advice from The Traders.

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The Traders chat round six teams LIVE. For more Fantasy content, head to afl.com.au/fantasy

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We're checking in at the Melbourne airport en-route to Perth for our live show! We talk about the super-long round that was, the new DPPs and some initial thoughts ahead of round six. Make sure you tune into our LIVE show via Facebook (or the podcast) on Thursday night from 6pm AEST.

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The Traders chat round five teams LIVE. For more Fantasy content, head to afl.com.au/fantasy

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Tom Mitchell. He's the most popular player in AFL Fantasy Classic and, quite unbelievably, he went up $45,000 from an already ridiculously high starting price. Scores of 156, 137 and 148 meant that he was the set-and-forget captain option for the year.

That was until Sunday afternoon.

Melbourne sent Nathan Jones to the most recent Fantasy Pig to be snouted and unfortunately, he was held to 83 points at his sty, the MCG. The tag was an issue for Mitchell as he wasn't able to score as freely as he did last season and during the opening three rounds.

This week he comes up against Ben Jacobs. The North Melbourne stopper accounted for Patrick Cripps (76) last weekend and held regular 100 plus scorers Clayton Oliver (88), Seb Ross (91) and Jarryd Lyons (84) to modest totals.

Cash cow Bailey Banfield is not only racking up solid scores himself, but restricting others. The Docker spent time on Lachie Whitfield in round four, restricting his influence at half-back to a score of 66. Previously he held Zach Merrett to 78 and Aaron Hall to 14.

Geelong's Scott Selwood is always a worry when he matches up on one of your gun midfielders. Port Adelaide have had Brad Ebert and even Tom Rockliff play negating roles this year.

Will we need a new skipper for round five when Jacobs takes on Mitchell? 64 per cent of the competition will need to tune into what Calvin has to say on this week's episode of the Official AFL Fantasy podcast as The Traders talk taggers.

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The Traders chat round four teams LIVE. For more Fantasy content, head to afl.com.au/fantasy

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Brisbane Lions ruckman Stefan Martin is the toast of AFL Fantasy coaches this week. The big man is behind Max Gawn, Nic Naitanui and Brodie Grundy on the ownership table however, the 16 per cent of coaches who backed him in are stoked with his output against a ruck-less Port Adelaide.

Martin finished with 49 hitouts (Justin Westhoff won 15 as the Power's ruck) and added 30 disposals, seven marks and seven tackles to his stat line to post a career-high 177 Fantasy points on Saturday afternoon at Adelaide Oval.

It appears that rucks coming up against Port Adelaide are in for a field day.

So far Aaron Sandilands (111), Callum Sinclair (93) and Martin (177) have enjoyed playing the Power while Patrick Ryder is on the sidelines. The Saints and Cats are also clubs that you can expect your ruck to score well against based on the data from the opening three weeks.

Solo rucks is where it's at in Fantasy. You want your ruckman to go about it alone.

At the start of the season there was some trepidation around picking Grundy with Mason Cox in the side. Cox has played two of the three games (he was suspended in round two) and Grundy is the top scoring ruck thus far. Cox has been playing as a deep forward with limited time on the ball.

Melbourne and Brisbane Lions have conceded the least amount of points to rucks. Gawn and Martin have been dominant - although they nullified each other in round two - winning the majority of hitouts and collecting ball around the ground.

Also in this week's podcast:
- All of the action from round three
- News from around the grounds, including Magoos News
- Trade tips for round four
- Your questions answered

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The Traders chat round three teams LIVE. For more Fantasy content, head to afl.com.au/fantasy

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