After Office Hours with Puget Sound Economic Forecaster

Rates are up, consumer confidence is at a record low, and Canadian visitors still aren't coming back. The Puget Sound Economic Forecaster team checks in on how the September forecast is holding up and what it means for the region heading into winter.

In this episode
- How the September forecast is holding up after the Fed's rate increase and a jump in September inflation
- Special guest Dr. Laurie Trautman on what may be a long-term shift in the Canada–US relationship: Canada's trade diversification, BC's move away from US-based contracts, and the continued drop in Canadian visits to Whatcom County
- Why consumers keep spending despite record-low sentiment, and what new credit lines tell us
- How 7%+ mortgage rates are squeezing buyers, builders and renters at once, and why housing supply matters as much as rates
- Fed rates vs. the market: why long-term rates may not fall as fast as short-term rates
- How an oil price shock can lift headline GDP even as households feel the pinch
- Are laid-off tech workers still being absorbed into the Seattle-area job market?

Host
James McCafferty, General Manager and Publisher, Puget Sound Economic Forecaster

Guests
Dr. Hart Hodges, Professor of Economics, Western Washington University, and Co-Director, Center for Economic and Business Research
James Mark Gbeda, Research Economist
Fouzia Awan, Research Economist
McK Mollner, Research Economist

Special Guest
Dr. Laurie Trautman, Director, Border Policy Research Institute, Western Washington University

Links
Puget Sound Economic Forecaster reports and monthly updates: www.economicforecaster.com
Center for Economic and Business Research: cebr.wwu.edu
Questions, comments or speaking requests: [email protected]
BPRI Current Research: Current Research Projects | Border Policy Research Institute | Western Washington University

Recorded October 14, 2026. Economic conditions change quickly. Check our website and social channels for the latest.

After Office Hours with the Puget Sound Economic Forecaster is a production of the Center for Economic and Business Research at Western Washington University. Produced by Jill Poon, Concept 168.

The team discusses the troubles with forecasting in uncertain times and state of the economy in the region and nationally.  Touching on topics such as retail sales, labor marketing and housing.

Creators & Guests

We rang in the new year in Seattle much like we are bringing you this podcast – with a lot of fog obscuring the show. If you think weather forecasts are unreliable, try predicting the economy with incomplete data, revised later, using assumptions that stop holding the moment you publish. But at least weather forecasters and economists have one thing in common: if their predictions were consistently right, no one would listen to them anymore.

Here we sit on January 13, 2026 hitting record for another in-depth economic discussion. A word of caution in what has become a quickly evolving economic climate – check your watch and your calendar as we talk – it is highly probable that things have shifted.

We published our latest regional report about a month ago. Honestly it felt like a published with dark sunglasses and one hand tied behind our backs as large slices of federal data were not available and they just started to appear last week. We took a narrative approach in our report – a nearly numerical free edition.

Topics Discussed today:
- Government shutdown effect on government data
- Private Data sources
- Q4 Retail Sales and expected Q1 numbers
- Housing and Construction data and impact of non-policy on the forecast
- Trade Deficit and Tariffs

The team covers myriad hot topics, including the impact of the government shut down on economic statistics, the impact of AI on the job market and the economy, how tariffs are or are not impacting consumers and how all of this impacts the Puget Sound economy.

The team explores game theory and how it relates to recent economic news.  

Hart and James bring in all of the research economists to discuss the latest data around unemployment, construction, rate cuts, water adjudication and what it all means for the Puget Sound economy.