Note: This is a fairly rough post I adapted from some comments I recently wrote that I worked hard enough on that I figured I should probably make them into a post. So, although this post is technically not a draft, it isn't written how I would write a post — it's less polished and more off the cuff. If you think I should remove the Draft Amnesty tag, please say so, and I will!

I very, very strongly believe there's essentially no chance of artificial general intelligence (AGI) being developed within the next 7 years.[1] Previously, I wrote a succinct list of reasons to doubt near-term AGI here. For example, it might come as a surprise that around three quarters of AI experts don’t think scaling up large language models (LLMs) will lead to AGI!

For a more technical and theoretical view (from someone with better [...]

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Outline:

(01:23) Clarification of terms

(02:50) Some recent AI predictions that turned out to be wrong

(03:54) Benchmarks do not test general intelligence

(05:51) AI in the economy

(07:51) AI vs. puzzles

(08:28) Problems with scaling up LLMs

(09:45) Agentic AI is unsuccessful

(11:01) Conclusion

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First published:

Source:

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.