Aha Bitcoin

By Stratus.ioBusiness Investing

Aha Bitcoin episodes

January 19, 202510 Crypto Predictions for 2025 (Bitwise)
Key Themes and Predictions:
Price Surges for Major Cryptocurrencies:
Prediction: Bitcoin will surpass $200,000, Ethereum will reach $7,000, and Solana will hit $750, all setting new all-time highs.

Supporting Factors:Continued inflows into Bitcoin ETFs.

Reduced Bitcoin supply due to the 2024 halving.

Potential U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve.

Growth in Layer 2 scaling solutions for Ethereum (Base, Starknet).

Increased development and use of Solana for serious projects.
Continued Growth of Bitcoin ETFs:
Prediction: Bitcoin ETFs will attract more inflows in 2025 than in 2024.

Supporting Factors:Historical patterns from gold ETFs, where the second year saw higher inflows than the first.

Major wirehouses (Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, etc.) expected to open access to Bitcoin ETFs for their clients.

Existing investors are predicted to "ladder up" their allocations over time.

Quote: "The point is: It would be in line with gold’s example for Year 2’s flows to top Year 1’s. Flows petering out would be unusual."
Coinbase's Ascent:
Prediction: Coinbase will surpass Charles Schwab as the most valuable brokerage, with its stock exceeding $700 per share.

Supporting Factors:Strong growth in the stablecoin business.

Success of the Base Layer 2 network, generating significant revenue.

Growth of staking and custody services.

Quote: "Coinbase is more than just a brokerage."
Crypto IPO Wave:
Prediction: At least five crypto unicorns will go public in the U.S. in 2025.

Supporting Factors:Favorable market conditions, including rising crypto prices and increased investor demand.

Improved regulatory and political climate.

Likely candidates include Circle, Figure, Kraken, Anchorage, and Chainalysis.
AI-Driven Memecoin Mania:
Prediction: Tokens launched by AI agents will spearhead a memecoin mania even bigger than in 2024.

Supporting Factors:Examples like the "GOAT" memecoin promoted by an AI agent.

The emergence of AI agents like Clanker that can autonomously launch tokens on Base.

Quote: "We believe that AI-launched tokens will fuel a new memecoin boom in 2025."
Increased Government Adoption:
Prediction: The number of countries holding Bitcoin will double.

Supporting Factors:Active consideration of a U.S. strategic bitcoin reserve.

Legislators from various countries are introducing bills to push for strategic bitcoin reserves.
Mainstream Inclusion in Indices:
Prediction: Coinbase will enter the S&P 500 and MicroStrategy will enter the Nasdaq-100.

Supporting Factors:This will add crypto exposure to the portfolios of nearly every U.S. investor.

Significant passive buying pressure is expected from funds tracking these indices.
Easing of Crypto Restrictions in 401(k) Plans:
Prediction: The U.S. Department of Labor will relax its guidance against crypto in 401(k) plans.

Supporting Factors:Shifting political landscape in DC

This change would potentially open up billions of dollars in new capital for crypto investments.

Quote: "If crypto captures 1% of 401(k) assets, that’s $80 billion of new capital entering the space, with a steady flow thereafter."
Stablecoin Market Expansion:
Prediction: Stablecoin assets will double to $400 billion.

Supporting Factors:Passage of long-awaited stablecoin legislation in the U.S.

Growth in global trade and remittances using stablecoins.

Increased integration of stablecoins into fintech apps.

Overall bullish crypto market.
Growth of Tokenized Real-World Assets (RWAs):
Prediction: The value of tokenized RWAs will surpass $50 billion.

Supporting Factors:Wall Street's increasing embrace of crypto.

The advantages of tokenization (instant settlement, lower costs, 24/7 liquidity).

Support from major figures like BlackRock CEO Larry Fink.
Long-Term Bitcoin Dominance:
Bonus Prediction: By 2029, Bitcoin will overtake the $18 trillion gold market, trading above $1 million per bitcoin.

Supporting Factors:Bitcoin's historical performance in 4-year cycles.
Quote: "We think bitcoin will overtake the gold market by 2029."
24 min
January 19, 2025Psychological Traits of Crypto Owners (Study)
Cryptocurrency Ownership Correlations
I. Key Themes and Ideas
Growth and Risk of Cryptocurrency:Cryptocurrency is an increasingly popular, unregulated form of digital currency, "not produced, controlled, or supported by any central bank or government entity."

It's known for its "unregulated trading and anonymous transactions," contributing to market volatility, fraud, and failures.

Despite these risks, many people invest, viewing it as a way to make quick money.

Governments are concerned about its potential to "bankrupt individuals and disrupt worldwide financial markets" and its links to crime.

Distrust and Anti-Establishment Attitudes:The development of cryptocurrency stemmed from "a strong distrust for mainstream, traditional currencies and financial institutions."

This distrust extends to other institutions and authorities, linking it to "conspiracy thinking, low levels of analytic and scientific reasoning, anti-science attitudes, the 'need for chaos,' and nonmainstream political orientations."

Diverse Political Landscape of Crypto Owners:Crypto investors display a heterogeneous collection of ideologies, not easily categorized on a simple left-right spectrum.

There is evidence of libertarian, populist, anarchist, alt-right, and even far-right/white supremacist attitudes among crypto investors. "some scholars have noted streaks of libertarianism [28], populism [27], and anarchism [29] among investors. However, other studies have reported evidence of alt-right attitudes, far-right extremism, and white supremacist views."

Psychological Profile of Crypto Owners:Crypto investors are more likely to experience negative emotions like anxiety, depression, impulsivity, and stress.

They also exhibit higher levels of "nonnormative and 'dark' personality traits," such as narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy, and sadism.

Information Environment and Media Use:Cryptocurrency ownership is "strongly associated with getting news about current events, public issues, and politics from alternative social media sources"

They are more likely to use platforms like Telegram, Reddit, Truth Social, and blogs, compared to mainstream news.
II. Key Findings
Prevalence: 29.79% of respondents reported having owned cryptocurrency at some point.

Demographics: Crypto owners are significantly younger (Mage = 38.38) and more likely to be male. They are also somewhat more educated, have higher incomes, and are more religious.

"Respondents who own or have owned cryptocurrency were significantly younger (Mage = 38.38, SDage = 12.94) than those who have not (Mage = 52.86, SDage = 18.84)"

"cryptocurrency owners are largely male (r =-.24, p<.001)"

Conspiracism & Thinking:

Crypto ownership is associated with a greater belief in conspiracy theories, “more strongly associated with greater self-reported generalized pattern perception (r = .30, p < .001), higher levels of a conspiratorial thinking style (r = .23, p<.001), and belief in a greater number of conspiracy theories (r = .33, p<.001)."

They are more likely to have an intolerance of uncertainty and a desire for simple solutions to problems.

Listen to learn more!
10 min
January 18, 2025Greatest Pair Trade in History
The "Speculative Attack, Season 2," builds upon the original "Speculative Attack" thesis from 2014, arguing that the economic incentive to borrow depreciating fiat currency to invest in Bitcoin remains compelling and has, in fact, become even stronger. The core idea is that this "pair trade" (short fiat, long Bitcoin) is not only rational for individuals but is increasingly driving the actions of institutions, companies, and even central banks, making it the "greatest pair trade in history."
Key Themes and Ideas:
The Original Speculative Attack Thesis (2014):The core idea is that the economic rationale for borrowing fiat to buy Bitcoin is overwhelmingly favorable.

The price of Bitcoin is driven by this buying pressure and news of its properties.

Individuals with debt obligations (mortgages, loans, etc.) are inherently leveraged in favor of this attack, as they can choose to buy Bitcoin instead of paying down liabilities.

This strategy becomes more potent with weaker local currencies compared to stronger currencies like the US Dollar.

"The returns figures cited just above are magnified even further if one takes as one’s starting point the Turkish Lira or the Argentinian Peso."

The authors argue that this thesis has proven correct, with Bitcoin being the world's best performing asset over much of the last 10 years, and that this thesis has now expanded.

Fiat Currency Degradation:Fiat currencies are in significantly worse shape than in 2014 due to increasing debt/GDP ratios, spiraling deficits, and banking failures.

"Debt/GDP ratios globally have marched upwards. Deficits have spiraled. Banks have failed, as have entire financial markets, on occasion."

Approximately one-third of all US dollars have been printed in the past four years.

"Roughly one third of all dollars in existence have been printed in the past four years, never mind ten."

Inflation is largely exported through the dollar's reserve currency status, worsening the situation in other fiat currencies.

The necessary political will to fix these issues is unlikely to exist.

"The necessary political will simply does not exist, and it is unlikely it ever could."

This continuing degradation of fiat enhances the speculative attack thesis.
Widening Avenues for Attack:
Fiat currency's monetary premia is leaking into almost every asset class, creating "short dollar positions everywhere, almost all of which are involuntary."

"Over the past ten years it has become clear that fiat is utterly out of control in leaking de facto monetary premia into practically every asset class in existence."

There are more "dollar shorts looking for a long" than there is Bitcoin, suggesting a massive potential demand for the asset.

The financial system is so credit-fueled that it requires a constant increase in the money supply to simply function.

"This is the essence of the speculative attack. As Bitcoin strengthens, the demand for fiat credit goes up, more is printed, and the problem Bitcoin solves gets even worse."

Central banks have actively intervened in capital markets by stockpiling securities to prevent the collapse of the fiat system.

"perhaps the most startling development is the volume of direct intervention in capital markets and stockpiling of listed securities on the balance sheets of central banks worldwide."

Conclusion:
The document concludes that the speculative attack on fiat currencies via Bitcoin is not only still valid but is accelerating. The degradation of fiat, the expansion of avenues for attack, and the increasing adoption of Bitcoin suggest that this trend will continue. The authors believe that this is just the beginning of "Season Two" of the speculative attack, with further development and evolution expected in the coming years.
18 min
January 16, 2025Bitcoin First Revisited: Summary from Fidelity
Analysis of Fidelity's Perspective on Bitcoin's Role in the Digital Asset Ecosystem
Key Themes and Ideas
Bitcoin as a Monetary Good:
Definition: The report emphasizes that a monetary good is valued for its tradability rather than its consumption or use. Historically, various goods have served as money (shells, gold).

Bitcoin's Properties: Bitcoin exhibits key monetary properties:

Scarcity: Unlike fiat currencies, Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21 million. "There will only ever be 21 million bitcoin."

Durability, Divisibility, Portability, Fungibility, Verifiability: The report compares Bitcoin favorably to gold and fiat currencies in these areas.

Decentralization & Censorship Resistance: "No one person, corporation, or government owns or controls the Bitcoin network or the rules that govern it."

Store of Value Thesis: Bitcoin's scarcity and security make it suitable as a store of value in an increasingly digital world. "One of the primary reasons investors attribute value to bitcoin is its scarcity. Its fixed supply is the reason it can be a store of value."
Bitcoin vs. Other Digital Assets:
Fundamentally Different: Fidelity stresses that Bitcoin is not just another digital asset; it’s fundamentally different. It is designed as a monetary good, unlike many others with platform-like aspirations.

Venture Capital Perspective: Non-bitcoin projects should be viewed with a venture capital lens, focusing on their functionality, scalability, and the network effects they can create.

No Direct Competition: Other digital assets are not necessarily in direct competition with Bitcoin's primary role as a store of value. "There is not necessarily mutual exclusivity between the success of the Bitcoin network and all other digital asset networks. Rather, the rest of the digital asset ecosystem can fulfill different needs or solve other problems that bitcoin simply does not."
Network Effects and Dominance:
Powerful Network Effects: Monetary networks have extreme network effects. The more participants, the more valuable the network.

Reflexive Property: Increased adoption drives further adoption due to peer-to-peer transactions. This reflexivity, combined with higher prices, incentivizes miners to increase the network's security.

Winner-Take-All: The report suggests a "winner-take-all" scenario for monetary goods is likely due to the strong network effect. "This network competition is likely to result in a winner-take-all scenario..."
Bitcoin's Resilience and the Lindy Effect:
Lindy Effect: The longer Bitcoin survives, the more likely it is to endure. "...the longer some non-perishable thing survives, the more likely it is to survive in the future."
Bitcoin’s Role in Different Scenarios:
Multi-Chain World: Even in a world with multiple blockchains, Bitcoin is likely to be the ecosystem’s primary monetary good.

Winner-Take-All World: Bitcoin is well-positioned to dominate as the most decentralized and immutable blockchain.
Investment Framework:
Separate Frameworks: Investors should adopt separate frameworks for bitcoin (as a monetary good) and other digital assets (as venture capital-like investments).

Bitcoin's Risk Profile: Bitcoin's risks are lower compared to other digital assets due to its code simplicity and focus on decentralization.

Bitcoin's Return Drivers: Bitcoin's returns are driven by the broader growth of the digital asset ecosystem and potential instability in traditional macro conditions.

Non-Bitcoin Risks: Non-bitcoin tokens often face more significant risks, including competition, lack of decentralization, and the possibility of becoming worthless. "The risks with non-bitcoin tokens certainly ranges on a case-by-case basis and tends to become more extreme in longer-tail, more speculative tokens."
17 min
January 14, 2025ARK Invest's Monthly Report Just Dropped
This report from ARK Investment Management provides a review of Bitcoin's performance and on-chain metrics during December 2024, and an outlook for 2025. While December saw a slight price dip for Bitcoin, ARK maintains an overall bullish view for 2025, citing historical post-halving trends, strong long-term holder behavior, and potential for economic growth driven by productivity gains and shifts in macroeconomic indicators.
Key Themes & Ideas:
Bitcoin Market Overview (December 2024):
Price Dip: Bitcoin's price experienced a 3.2% drop in December, closing at $93,354, marking the first down month in over a quarter.
Positive Indicators: Despite the dip, the price remained above key levels: the 200-day moving average, the short-term-holder (STH) cost basis, and the on-chain mean.
Long-Term Holding Strength: 62% of the Bitcoin supply has not moved in more than a year, signaling strong long-term conviction amongst holders.
Short-Term Overheating: Significant liquidations in the futures market suggested potential short-term market overheating.
Bullish Outlook for 2025:
Post-Halving Trend: Historically, all years following a halving event have resulted in positive returns and bullish momentum for Bitcoin. The last halving occurred in 2024.
Historical Performance: Previous post-halving years (2013, 2017, 2021) saw Bitcoin price increases of 54.1x, 14.3x, and 1.6x respectively.
Long Term Holding Behavior: A high percentage of bitcoin remains dormant across multiple year timeframes demonstrating faith in its long term potential.

Volatility: Bitcoin's recent volatility spike is not considered out of the norm historically, suggesting further market expansion is possible.
On-Chain Metrics:
Network Security: Mining difficulty is up 52.4% year-over-year, indicating a strong and secure network.
Miner Revenue: Remains stable at $44.3 million, but is down 8.2% year over year, a neutral signal.
Network Usage: Both active owners and transaction volume are down on a monthly and yearly basis which is considered bearish.
Holder Behavior: While long-term holder supply is down, the amount of illiquid (locked) supply is up. Also, Time-Weighted Turnover is up by a significant amount which signals overall bullish sentiment.

Cost Bases: Both the market cost basis and short-term holder cost basis are up by a significant amount which are bullish signals for the asset.

Market Sentiment: Both Perpetual and Expirational futures basis are deemed bullish.
Macroeconomic Factors & Economic Growth:
Metals-Gold Ratio: The metals-to-gold ratio has hit a historical low, signaling potential for lower interest rates or higher metals prices.
Small Business Optimism: Small business optimism has increased significantly after the election, a positive sign for the economy.
AI-Driven Productivity: The report suggests AI adoption could boost productivity and lead to significant growth in Real GDP.
Correlation with Real GDP: Historically, productivity has been highly correlated with real GDP growth, particularly in times of new technology adoption.

Discrepancies in Metals Ratio: The metals to gold ratio has become disconnected from the 10-year treasury yield, which could mean a correction is coming, to either the treasury or to the metals ratio, or a combination of both.
News of the Month:
Several significant news items occurred in December 2024, including:

MARA proposes a $700 million convertible note offering to buy more Bitcoin.

Trump selects Paul Atkins as the next SEC chair.

Trump appoints David Sacks as AI and Crypto Czar.

El Salvador to change Bitcoin law as part of a new IMF deal.

Ripple secures NYDFS approval for its RLUSD stablecoin.

Texas House introduces a bill to establish a strategic bitcoin reserve.

MicroStrategy to join the Nasdaq 100 and heavily traded QQQ ETF.
18 min
January 13, 2025Bitcoin Daily January 13, 2025
1. Bitcoin as an Inflation Hedge & Store of Value
Bitcoin's Performance vs. the US Dollar: One source notes that Bitcoin's compound inflation of 7% since 2020 has been significantly offset by a 900% gain while the US Dollar declined by 20% in the same period. This highlights a crucial point in Bitcoin's narrative that it is performing well against fiat currencies experiencing inflation.

Divergence from the Dollar: Bitcoin's resilience against the fluctuating U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is also highlighted, suggesting a growing independence from dollar fluctuations. It was noted that: "While nominal price shifts capture headlines, the real intrigue lies in how Bitcoin's purchasing power, once tightly linked with a weakened dollar, has charted a different course amid recent dollar rallies."
2. Market Dynamics & Trading Behavior
Retail Trader Influence: A significant finding is that "86% of Bitcoin’s sell-off driven by short-term retail traders." This highlights how vulnerable the market can be to the actions of this cohort and implies that price volatility could be driven by short-term trading sentiment.

Liquidity Squeeze: Bitcoin's sell-side liquidity has hit its lowest level since 2018, which is described as "fueling BTC rally." This implies that a limited amount of Bitcoin being offered for sale is putting upward pressure on prices, although this article is six days old at time of writing.

Market Sentiment and Liquidations: Bitcoin's sharp price swings are noted as resulting in "$418 million in liquidations" within a single week. The volatility of Bitcoin is therefore emphasized as a significant risk to short term speculators.

Bitcoin ETF Activity: Spot Bitcoin ETFs are highlighted as reaching their first anniversary, with some ranking in the Top 20 in terms of Assets Under Management.

Inflows to crypto assets: Crypto investment products are seeing inflows with Bitcoin and XRP leading with a modest $48 million inflow. This shows there is investment into the crypto space as a whole, although it is modest.
3. Regulatory & Institutional Developments
DOJ Sells Bitcoin Seized from Silk Road: The Department of Justice received court approval to sell 69,370 BTC seized from the Silk Road marketplace. The actions of the DOJ show that governments are actively engaged in dealing with cases relating to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and that the market has the capacity to handle the offloading of large amounts of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Mining in Russia: There's a reported surge in Bitcoin mining demand in Russia, with a tripling of demand due to "regulatory shifts and price rally."

Strategic Reserves: New Hampshire is cited as an example of states exploring Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.

UK regulatory clarification: Ethereum and Solana staking are no longer classified as collective investment schemes in the UK, as part of the government's recent plans to foster crypto innovation. This shows there are some positive regulatory developments in some jurisdictions.
4. Technological Advancements & Development
Alpen Labs' Strata: Alpen Labs is developing "Strata," which is open to public testing next month, and allows developers to build new applications on the Bitcoin network. This shows that Bitcoin is continuing to develop as a platform.

Oh raises $4.5 million: Oh raised $4.5 million to empower creators through AI and Web3 fusion. This demonstrates the integration of AI, Web3, and new use cases for cryptocurrencies, although this is focused around the Solana network.
5. Bitcoin Network Fundamentals
Mining Difficulty: Bitcoin's mining difficulty has reached a historic high of 110 trillion, after eight consecutive increases, showing more competition in mining.

Adjusted Price: Bitcoin is said to remain above $100,000 when adjusted to 2021 US Dollar values.
23 min
January 09, 2025Bitcoin Daily January 9, 2025
Market Trends & Predictions - Early 2025
The crypto market is currently experiencing a period of high volatility and significant activity, as 2025 begins. While some analysts predict continued growth and even a Bitcoin price target of $200,000 by year's end, macroeconomic concerns and policy uncertainties are also creating potential headwinds. The upcoming inauguration of Donald Trump is seen as a potentially significant market driver, but the market is simultaneously showing signs of concern about persistent inflation. There's a clear trend toward institutional adoption and the development of sophisticated investment vehicles (like ETFs), but also potential risks related to debt and over-leveraging. The sources suggest a complex and dynamic landscape with a number of cross currents and competing forces.
Key Themes and Ideas:
Bitcoin Price Predictions & Targets:
$200,000 Target: Bernstein analysts have reiterated their $200,000 Bitcoin price target by the end of 2025. This is driven by expected corporate and institutional demand. "A national bitcoin reserve announcement by the U.S. would spark a global sovereign race to acquire bitcoin amongst nation-states."

Arthur Hayes' Prediction: Hayes predicts a market peak by mid-to-late March 2025, driven by dollar liquidity. He expects liquidity to recover in Q3.

$100,000 Psychological Barrier: Bitcoin is approaching the $100,000 mark, viewed as a critical psychological milestone.

Market Top in April: Hayes has predicted that the market will hit a top in April.

Trump Influence: The market is anticipating the inauguration of Donald Trump, who has expressed interest in a national Bitcoin reserve and is seen as potentially positive for crypto.
Institutional & Corporate Adoption:
Corporate Treasury Adoption: Bernstein anticipates over $50 billion in corporate treasury inflows into Bitcoin in 2025, compared to $24 billion in 2024. "As corporate treasuries and Bitcoin ETFs become a larger part of bitcoin ownership, we expect bitcoin ownership to get more sticky."

MicroStrategy as Leader: MicroStrategy is expected to continue leading the charge in corporate Bitcoin accumulation. The company recently bought another 1,070 BTC, reaching a total of 447,470 BTC.

Bitcoin ETFs: Spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows are expected to exceed $70 billion. These are seen as key to expanding institutional access. Fidelity believes Bitcoin is at the precipice of mass adoption, saying that it's not 'too late' for investors to get in.

Options Growth: Nasdaq is proposing to raise the options contract limit for the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), citing increased trading volume as the driver. IBIT options saw over $446 million in trading volume in their first hours.

Downside Protection: Calamos is introducing a Bitcoin ETF with 100% downside protection, targeting investors wary of volatility.
Macroeconomic Factors & Volatility:
Inflation Concerns: persistent inflation, leading to dips in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. "Not just crypto, but both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 fell more than 1% yesterday, driven by concerns over inflation after ISM data revealed faster-than-expected growth in the U.S. economy."

Federal Reserve Influence: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions are significant market drivers. The market reacted negatively when the Fed reduced planned 2025 rate cuts from four to two.

Market Correction: The crypto market saw a correction in late December, wiping out $500 billion in market value, after reaching a record high of $3.91 trillion, and a surge in bond yields is leading to fears of persistent inflation.

Treasury Yields: The 10-year Treasury has reached its highest level since April, adding to inflation fears and market instability.
Bitcoin Dominance:
Growing Dominance: Bitcoin's dominance among global assets has increased, despite the market correction in December. Bitcoin is positioned as the seventh largest global asset by market capitalization.
12 min
January 07, 2025Bitcoin Daily January 7, 2025
2025 features a dynamic and rapidly evolving Bitcoin landscape in early 2025. Key themes include a resurgence in on-chain transaction volume, record-breaking hashrate figures, increasing institutional involvement and lending practices, potential political influence from the upcoming Trump administration, and ongoing legal challenges and tax compliance issues. Bitcoin's market position appears to be strengthening, with increased mainstream adoption and recognition.
Key Themes and Ideas:
Resurgence in Bitcoin Network Activity:
Significant Transaction Volume: In 2024, the Bitcoin network settled over $19 trillion in transactions, more than double the $8.7 trillion settled in 2023. This reverses the decline seen in 2022 and 2023, showing renewed activity on the network.

Medium of Exchange: As Pierre Rochard stated: "The Bitcoin network finalized more than $19 trillion worth of BTC transactions in 2024, decisively proving that Bitcoin is both a store of value and a medium of exchange."

Historical Peak: While 2024 was a significant year of growth, the peak of transaction volume was in 2021 at approximately $47 trillion.

Market Cap Growth: Bitcoin surpassed silver's market cap in 2024, achieving a market cap of approximately $1.9 trillion.
Bitcoin Hashrate and Mining Landscape:
Record Hashrate: The Bitcoin network's hashrate hit a new all-time high of 1,000 exahashes per second (EH/s) in early 2025 before falling back to 775 EH/s.

US Mining Dominance: US-based mining pools accounted for over 40% of the global hashrate in 2024, with Foundry USA and MARA Pool controlling over 38.5% of all blocks mined in 2024. However, China-based pools still control a majority of the hashrate on the network.

Geographic Obfuscation: The pseudonymous and distributed nature of Bitcoin mining, along with the use of VPNs, make it difficult to establish a clear gauge of hashrate dominance.
Institutional Lending and Yield Generation:
MARA Lending: Bitcoin mining firm MARA has lent out 7,377 BTC, approximately 16% of its reserves, to third parties to generate yield.

"Modest Single-Digit Yield": According to MARA's Director of Investor Relations, the company is generating a "modest single-digit yield" from these loans. This is an attempt to "offset operating expenses".

Risk Awareness: The article notes past collapses of Bitcoin lenders, like BlockFi, Genesis, and Celsius during the 2022 bear market, highlighting the counterparty risks involved.

MARA Holdings: MARA mined 9,457 BTC and acquired 22,065 BTC at an average price of $87,205 in 2024 and held 44,893 BTC worth approximately $4.4 billion as of December 31, 2024.
Political Influence and Trump Administration:
Mar-a-Lago Meeting: Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of MicroStrategy, met with Eric Trump, son of President-elect Donald Trump, at Mar-a-Lago. The meeting has led to speculation about Saylor's involvement in future Bitcoin policies.

Pro-Bitcoin Stance: Eric Trump has praised Bitcoin as a "global asset" and says his family is pro-crypto. He has also stated his father is "the most pro-crypto president in U.S. history" and believes "America is going to lead the way in the digital revolution." He claims to have “fallen in love with crypto and DeFi” and is committed to making DeFi more accessible

MicroStrategy's Position: MicroStrategy holds 446,400 BTC, worth approximately $43.7 billion, making it a major player in the Bitcoin market.

Saylor's View: Michael Saylor has said that "Bitcoin is on the menu at Mar-a-Lago" and has expressed his willingness to advise the Trump administration on Bitcoin policies.

Potential Regulatory Shift: There's optimism within the Bitcoin community that the Trump administration will foster a more regulatory-friendly environment for the industry.
11 min
January 05, 2025Bitcoin Daily January 5, 2025
1. Growing Institutional and Sovereign Interest in Bitcoin:
National Reserves: Several sources point to a growing interest in nations holding Bitcoin as part of their national reserves, similar to gold.
A future where Bitcoin becomes a strategic reserve for Switzerland could soon become reality."

Ryan from Stratus argues for a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) to "diversify, not replace, existing reserves." They propose the SBR should be treated as a key resource, like gold or oil, and note the US already holds ~1% of the total Bitcoin supply through seizures.

Geopolitical Drivers: Several sources note that politicians are considering Bitcoin inclusion in strategic reserves, particularly in light of Donald Trump's pro-crypto stance and a perceived trend of "de-dollarization" away from US dollar dominance.
Ryan from Stratus argues that the US could demonstrate "democratizing finance through inclusion, neutrality and transparency is more important than imposing dollar hegemony."
Central Bank Purchases: As noted by the VanEck CEO, foreign central bank purchasing and a shift away from the USD are major drivers of the gold bull market.
2. Bitcoin as a Hedge and Store of Value:
Inflation Hedge: Bitcoin, with its fixed supply, is highlighted as a "hedge against currency devaluation."

Store of Value: "Bull markets in gold and Bitcoin are supported by inflationary pressures, fiscal uncertainty, and de-dollarization trends," and argues that these are "essential for any portfolio seeking to guard against inflation."

Insurance Against Systemic Risk: Multiple sources describe Bitcoin as monetary insurance and a hedge against systemic risk. Ryan from Stratus notes that it is an "escape hatch" against systemic risks, inflation, and debt instability.

Long-Term Wealth Preservation: VanEck notes that Bitcoin is in a 3-year bull market cycle following the halving event, further positioning it as a "pivotal asset for long-term wealth preservation."
3. Technological and Philosophical Arguments for Bitcoin:
Decentralization and Censorship Resistance: Ryan from Stratus emphasizes that Bitcoin’s "permissionless, decentralized, global peer-to-peer (P2P)" network provides security and "censorship resistance." The "Bitcoin transactions are immutable" due to the decentralized nature of the network.
Adam Smith and Bitcoin: The Stone Ridge letter argues that Bitcoin represents a better alternative and a return to the principles espoused by Smith. They also say that they view bitcoin as "digital property. We finally have liquid land."

Time as the Key Driver: Fiat currency allows central banks to "steal time" by printing money, whereas Bitcoin has a fixed pace ("block height") of "depletion of the most valuable resource in the universe, our time".

Bitcoin as a New Universal Constant: The Stone Ridge letter frames Bitcoin's pace of block generation ("b") as a "new universal constant" that is "dependent on no one, measurable by anyone, the answer never changing."
4. Other Key Developments & Insights:
FDIC Letters: Coinbase has released unredacted FDIC letters, which CryptoSlate notes, "urging banks to avoid offering basic Bitcoin services." This highlights continued institutional resistance to Bitcoin from some traditional finance players.
Bitcoin-Collateralized Loans: Stone Ridge anticipates the emergence of a "cheap" bitcoin-collateralized fiat lending market ("HODL loans"). They believe this would "increase the utility of our stack" and "accelerate fiat debasement."

"HODL" Philosophy: Stone Ridge also discusses the "HODL" mentality, noting that while many claim to never sell Bitcoin, that at some point most will and it will enable them to live better lives. They recommend that HODLers should seek a "cheap" way to access fiat (through loans) rather than selling their Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Price Predictions: VanEck CEO projects Bitcoin to reach $150,000 to $170,000 during this bull cycle. MARA CEO Fred Thiel predicts $200,000 by the end of 2025.
16 min
December 30, 2024SoftWar: Bitcoin and Securing Cyberspace
Conversation about U.S. Major Jason Lowery's "Softwar," exploring the potential of Bitcoin as a revolutionary approach to cybersecurity and a novel form of power projection in the digital age.
Core Argument:
Lowery argues that Bitcoin is not just a monetary protocol but an emerging cyber power projection tactic. Unlike traditional software which logically constrains computers, Bitcoin physically constrains them, imposing real-world energy costs (measured in watts) on malicious actors. This, he posits, could reshape how society secures valuable digital resources.
Key Concepts & Themes:
Power Projection Theory: Lowery draws parallels between biological organisms and nation-states, emphasizing the universal drive for survival and resource control. He argues that physical power, manifested as watts, serves as a fundamental basis for resolving disputes and establishing dominance hierarchies in both natural and social systems.

Life's War Against Entropy: The thesis explores the fundamental struggle of living organisms against entropy, highlighting the importance of resource acquisition and efficient energy utilization for survival. Bitcoin, in this context, represents a novel way to secure resources (information) in the digital realm through the expenditure of physical energy.

Primordial Economics: Lowery introduces the concept of "Benefit-to-Cost Ratio of Attack" (BCRa) as a metric for assessing the vulnerability of resources. He argues that organisms and societies strive to maximize their BCRa by minimizing attack costs and maximizing benefits from resource ownership. Bitcoin, through its proof-of-work mechanism, creates a system where securing information requires significant energy expenditure, thereby raising the BCRa and deterring attacks.

Dysfunctions of Abstract Power: While acknowledging the utility of abstract power structures like governments, Lowery critiques their susceptibility to corruption and manipulation.

Bitcoin as a Planetary-Scale Computer: Lowery proposes that Bitcoin could function as the operating system of a planetary-scale computer, utilizing the global electric power grid as its infrastructure. This concept aligns with the idea of planetary-scale computation, which explores the potential of interconnected technologies to create a global computational network.

Physically Constrained & Thermodynamically Restricted Space: Lowery highlights the unique characteristic of Bitcoin as creating a new type of state space in cyberspace. This space is physically constrained by energy requirements and thermodynamically restricted by the fixed supply of Bitcoin, offering distinct advantages for security and resilience.

Softwar & Mutually Assured Preservation: Lowery introduces the concept of "softwar" as a non-kinetic form of power competition. He argues that Bitcoin, through its energy-intensive nature, could deter large-scale cyberattacks and foster a state of mutually assured preservation, similar to the concept of mutually assured destruction in nuclear warfare.
Supporting Arguments & Examples:
Historical Parallels: Lowery draws upon historical examples, ranging from ancient empires to the development of nuclear weapons, to illustrate the evolution of power projection tactics and the persistent drive for dominance.

Evolution of Computing: The thesis traces the history of computing, emphasizing the shift from physical to abstract power structures in managing computer systems.

El Salvador's Bitcoin Adoption: Lowery points to El Salvador's adoption of Bitcoin as a national currency as an early example of nation-state recognition of Bitcoin's potential for financial independence and cybersecurity.

Gabriel's Horn Paradox: Lowery uses the Gabriel's Horn Paradox, a mathematical concept involving infinite surface area but finite volume, to illustrate how Bitcoin can accommodate an unlimited amount of physical power expenditure while maintaining a fixed supply of "bitpower."
17 min

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