In this special interview episode, hosts Adrian Sanabria and Alexandre Sieira sit down with Tony Martin-Vegue, author of the upcoming book Heatmaps to Histadograms: A Practical Guide to Cyber Risk Quantification.

Tony shares his journey from IT and cryptography to becoming a leading voice in cyber risk quantification, including his six years building Netflix's risk quantification program from the ground up.

Tony Martin-Vegue brings over two decades of experience in IT and information security. With an economics degree that his mentor recognized as ideal for risk management, Tony has built cyber risk quantification programs at several large companies. Most recently, he spent six years at Netflix where he led approximately 3,000 FAIR-based risk assessments. He now runs his own consulting and advisory firm while promoting quantitative approaches to cyber risk.
Resources Mentioned in the Episode:

• The website for Tony’s book: https://www.heatmapstohistograms.com/
• Link to Solar Winds breach: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_federal_government_data_breach
• Link to Colonial Pipeline breach: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonial_Pipeline_ransomware_attack
• The Scoville Scale: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scoville_scale
• How to use Monte Carlo simulations in Excel: https://support.microsoft.com/en-us/office/introduction-to-monte-carlo-simulation-in-excel-64c0ba99-752a-4fa8-bbd3-4450d8db16f1
• The FAIR Institute: https://www.fairinstitute.org/
• The FAIR Framework: https://www.fairinstitute.org/blog/integrating-fair-models-a-unified-framework-for-cyber-risk-management
• How to Lie with Statistics: Information Security Edition https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3jJnl99Lmc
• Cyentia’s IRIS Retina Report https://www.cyentia.com/services/iris-risk-retina/
• Verizon’s 2025 Data Breach Investigations Report: https://www.verizon.com/business/resources/reports/dbir

Alice in Supply Chains is a monthly podcast by based on the Alice in Supply Chains newsletter - that provides interesting discussions and insights on all things related to third-party cyber risk management (TPCRM).

It's hosted by two leading voices in the industry, Tenchi Security's Co-founder and CTO Alexandre Sieira & The Defender's Initiative Principal Researcher, Adrian Sanabria, and it promises expert opinions and takeaways to help audiences navigate the complex cybersecurity landscape.

1. 2026 Outlook

• AI hits "put up or shut up" time—needs to prove enterprise value beyond demos
• Geopolitical fragmentation accelerating, impacting supply chain dependencies
• China signaling supply chain independence (banning US/Israeli security vendors, declining Nvidia H200s)

• Upcoming episode with Tony Martin-Vegue on cyber risk quantification
• RSA Conference: Tenchi hosting events at Harlan Records, Sun–Wed, during RSA week

2. Announcements

• Upcoming episode with Tony Martin-Vegue on cyber risk quantification

• RSA Conference: Tenchi hosting events at Harlan Records, Sun–Wed, during RSA week

3. Stories covered

Story 1: ENISA NIS2 Survey
Survey of 1,080 professionals across 27 EU countries on cybersecurity investments.

• Top investment driver: Regulatory compliance (70%), far ahead of proactive risk management (42%)
• Hardest to implement: Vulnerability management (#1), TPRM (#2)
• Supplier inventory: Under 10% of companies maintain one—current TPRM approaches don't scale
• Top 2026 concerns: Ransomware and supply chain attacks (~47%)

• https://www.enisa.europa.eu/publications/nis-investments-2025

Story 1 Resources

• https://www.enisa.europa.eu/publications/nis-investments-2025
  

Story 2: SOC 2 Fraud Allegations
Social media discussions allege compliance platforms and auditors are rubber-stamping SOC 2 reports.

• Claims of nearly identical reports across different companies
• No AICPA enforcement—peer review doesn't verify actual control testing
• Post-breach cases (e.g., PowerSchool) reveal SOC 2s claiming controls that weren't implemented
• Takeaway: Don't over-trust SOC 2s for critical third parties; consider independent verification

Story 2 Resources

• https://www.linkedin.com/posts/troyjfine_details-have-emerged-regarding-a-widespread-activity-7415043499676483584-nI5Z
• https://www.linkedin.com/posts/sieira_details-have-emerged-regarding-a-widespread-activity-7415394996184424449-CSzO
• https://infosec.exchange/@AlexandreSieira/115865691003110478

Story 3: Japan & Korea Cybersecurity Regulations
Both countries responding to major 2025 breaches (Asahi, SK Telecom, KT, Coupang) with new rules.

• Mandatory breach reporting with government actively assisting incident response
• Korea: GDPR-style fines up to 3% of annual sales for repeat breaches
• Japan: Expanding cyber intelligence capabilities, reflecting reduced reliance on US protection
• TPRM angle: Public breach disclosure would enable better third-party "background checks" than self-reported questionnaires

Story 3 Resources

• https://www.centerforcybersecuritypolicy.org/insights-and-research/japans-new-active-cyber-defense-law-a-strategic-evolution-in-national-cybersecurity
• https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/12/23/japan/crime-legal/new-cybersecurity-strategy-police-sdf/
• https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/southkorea/20251212/science-minister-vows-punitive-fines-against-companies-with-repeated-security-breaches

Other Resources Mentioned

• The Alice in Supply Chains Newsletter https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/alice-in-supply-chains-6976104448523677696/
• Episode 440 of the Enterprise Security Weekly podcast: why cybersecurity predictions are so bad https://youtu.be/qyn7F2NPCMs?si=P0bhGQtwwHXrnIhW
• Prior episode with AJ Yawn discussing how the SOC 2 sausage gets made https://www.tenchisecurity.com/en/alice-in-supply-chains/episode-7-hoxz2
• "The Security Products We Deserve" talk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHuQC1qLnJ4

Stay safe and stay vigilant!

Join Alexandre Sieira (CTO & Cofounder, Tenchi Security) and Adrian Sanabria (Principal Researcher, The Defender's Initiative) as they unpack the most relevant stories from our latest Alice in Supply Chains newsletter (issue #40) - and discuss what they mean for third-party cyber risk management.

Topics approached on the last podcast of 2025:

- Trends in Supply Chain Attacks in general, as observed through this year;

- The Risks of Ignoring Corporate Culture in Third-Party Due Diligence

- CISOs Are Losing Control of Their Security Outcomes

- Cyber Insurance

Join Alexandre Sieira (CTO & Cofounder, Tenchi Security) and Adrian Sanabria (Principal Researcher, The Defender's Initiative) as they unpack the most relevant stories from our latest Alice in Supply Chains newsletter (#39) - and discuss what they mean for third-party cyber risk management.

In this episode, the duo dive into:

• Liability in the Age of AI: Who is truly accountable when AI "hallucinates" and causes reputational or financial damage?

• The Fog of War in Breach Reporting: Why early breach disclosures are often highly inaccurate ?

• The Cloud Availability Crisis: It’s not just AWS and Azure. We analyze the recurring, major outages impacting global infrastructure - and the critical dependencies putting your entire digital supply chain at risk.

Don't miss their expert discussion on navigating modern digital supply chain risks!

In this episode, Alexandre Sieira (CTO & Cofounder of Tenchi Security) and Adrian Sanabria (Principal Researcher at The Defender's Initiative) dive into key topics from newsletter #38, sharing expert insights on the latest in third-party cyber risk management.
They discuss:

• Have cybercriminals been too successful?
• Jaguar Land Rover’s recent cyber struggles
• The true cost of a breach
• Why risk management shouldn’t stop at the company’s borders
• 
  

Stay tuned each month for sharp analysis and essential discussions on TPCRM challenges.

In this episode, Alexandre Sieira (CTO & Cofounder of Tenchi Security) and Adrian Sanabria (Principal Researcher at The Defender's Initiative) celebrate the 3rd anniversary of the Alice in Supply Chains newsletter - the very starting point for this podcast. Together, they revisit key highlights from issue #37, unpacking the stories shaping today’s supply chain security landscape:

-The Salesloft “Perfect One Attack, Use Many” case-Vendors charging customers to complete security questionnaires-New CISA tools for supply chain security-The Sinqia compromise and the HSBC BRL theftStay tuned, every month, for in-depth insights, expert analysis, and key discussions on TPCRM challenges.

Alice in Supply Chains is a monthly podcast inspired by the Alice in Supply Chains newsletter, delivering sharp discussions and insights on all things related to third-party cyber risk management (TPCRM). Hosted by two of the industry’s leading voices - Alexandre Sieira, Co-founder & CTO of Tenchi Security, and Adrian Sanabria, Principal Researcher at The Defender’s Initiative - the show offers expert analysis and practical takeaways to help you navigate today’s complex cybersecurity landscape.

In this episode, they dive into three standout stories from issue #36 of the newsletter of the same name, Alice in Supply Chains:

• How third-party disruptions can derail operations;

• The unusual case of Clorox vs. Cognizant;

• Why relying on EU cloud regions may not guarantee data sovereignty - and Microsoft’s admission to French customers.

Alice in Supply Chains is a monthly podcast by Tenchi Security based on the Alice in Supply Chains newsletter that provides interesting discussions and expert insights on all things related to third-party cyber risk management (TPCRM).

It's hosted by two leading voices in the industry, Alexandre Sieira, Tenchi Security's CTO and Co-Founder  & The Defender's Initiative Principal Researcher, Adrian Sanabria - and it promises expert opinions and takeaways to help audiences navigate the complex cybersecurity landscape.

This episode is based on the content of issue #35 of the newsletter and covers:

- Prolific cybercriminal group now targeting aviation and transportation Companies

- Patient's death linked to cyber attack on NHS, hospital trust says

- Cyberattack on Brazil tech provider affects reserve accounts of some financial institutions;

We’re thrilled to announce a special bonus episode of the Alice in Supply Chains podcast featuring an insightful conversation you won’t want to miss.

In this episode, Alexandre Sieira, CTO and Co-founder of Tenchi Security, and Adrian Sanabria, Principal Researcher at the Defender's Initiative, sit down with AJ Yawn - Director of GRC Engineering at Aquia, author of GRC Engineering for AWS, and host of CyberTakes.

Together, they take a deep dive into SOC 2 and its fate - exploring challenges, limitations, why it’s become so popular - and what the future holds. It’s a timely and important discussion for anyone interested in cyber risk management.

Alice in Supply Chains is a monthly podcast by ⁠⁠Tenchi Security ⁠⁠based on the ⁠⁠Alice in Supply Chains newsletter, ⁠⁠that provides interesting discussions and expert insights on all things related to third-party cyber risk management (TPCRM).

It's hosted by two leading voices in the industry, Tenchi Security's CTO and Co-Founder  ⁠⁠Alexandre Sieira ⁠⁠& The Defender's Initiative Principal Researcher, ⁠⁠Adrian Sanaria⁠⁠, and it promises expert opinions and takeaways to help audiences navigate the complex cybersecurity landscape.

This episode is based on the content of issue #34 of the newsletter of the same name, and covers:

- Cyber attack on Rhode Island's benefit system

- Retail attacks in the UK and the US

- How to incentivize security by design