Alpha Bets

Brett, Judah, and Zach pontificate on NFL Week 1, isolating opportunities to lean into alt lines, take advantage of potential live betting mispricings, and how to position for the Circa Millions and Survivor contests. A lot of disagreement, but are generally cautious on Rams, see Giants upside v. Titans, betting on Texans to surprise v. Colts, expect Chargers to exploit the Raiders, and are fading Jags and Lions steam. Ravens will likely be the core allocation for survivor strategies, but Joe Flacco is a notable wrinkle that makes Brett and Zach a bit nervous. 

Hear about this and more from betting strategists @deepvaluebettor, @throwthedamball, and @contextcapper on the 2022 NFL betting market outlook for Week 1.

Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting podcast is fueled by SportfolioKings, a next-gen sports betting research platform fueled by advanced data analytics and Wall Street-style trading strategies. We blend the advantages of fundamental analysis, data science, and market- and sentiment-oriented research to identify actionable alpha opportunities in sports markets.

Join us at www.sportfoliokings.com.

Highest conviction trade idea ✍️: Raiders under 8.5 wins and alt under 7.5 wins at +210. 

The AFC West has four playoff contenders and everyone got better, except for the Chiefs. Are they still the crown jewel of the best division in football? The Broncos haven't made the playoffs in six years - the second longest drought in the league. Is Russell Wilson the missing piece, or is the near 34 year old washed? The the Chargers are leaning into the variance game and built a roster that is stacked, but we've seen all-star rosters constructed before the end on a wimper - is it all sizzle and no steak? The Raiders experienced some of the most turnover in the league, have a new coaching staff, play a top 5 most difficult schedule, and were the beneficiaries of an incredible luck in 2021 - odds suggest the team is egregiously mispriced. 

Hear about this and more from betting strategists @deepvaluebettor, @throwthedamball, and @drivs228 on the 2022 NFL betting market outlook for the AFC West.

Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting podcast is fueled by SportfolioKings, a next-gen sports betting research platform fueled by advanced data analytics and Wall Street-style trading strategies. We blend the advantages of fundamental analysis, data science, and market- and sentiment-oriented research to identify actionable alpha opportunities in sports markets.

Join us at www.sportfoliokings.com.

Highest conviction trade idea ✍️: Steelers under 7.5 wins, Browns alt uner 7 wins +195 and to win Super Bowl +5000. Steelers defense is likely a sham, overly reliant on TJ Watt, and will be exposed as not only a strength but perhaps a weakness in 2022. The market is lukewarm on the Bengals despite winning the AFC and being a late TD away from being Super Bowl champions. Joe Burrow was sacked an egregious 70 times last season, but the Bengals brass made a vigilant effort to enhance the weakest part of the team: the OL. Now the unit may be a top 10 unit. Can this explosive offense recapture the AFC crown in a crowded field? The Browns are all in on Deshaun Watson, leveraging their future, their brand, the stability of their organization. All on a disgraced wildcard. Can Jacoby Brissett and an elite offensive line, keep the Browns competitive through the first 11 games of the season? The Ravens were 5-1 to start the season. In position for the number one seed in the AFC in early December, before unraveling and losing six straight games to close the season. Is a healthier Ravens team capable of going on a revenge tour in 2022? We'll discuss all of this and more on this episode of betting market outlook for the AFC North.

Spoiler: our favorite division bets are Rams under 10 wins and Seahawks fewest points scored (+750). Stafford and Co. enter 2022 as Super Bowl champs and with another set of lofty expectations - but remain in arguably the best division in the NFC, if not the NFL. We are selling the hype - expecting a tough division to drive wild volatility and a lack of depth, a reversal of positive injury luck, and a significant loss of coaching talent to stifle the team on their path to the targeted 10 wins (current market win total expectations). The Niners and Cardinals both have high ceilings but low floors (emblematic of the division volatility writ large), and the market is torn in both directions. However, the Niners are priced at 10 wins and the Cardinals are priced at 8.5 wins. Maybe Kyle Shanahan's wizardry can take advantage of the relatively easy schedule (projected 13th easiest) and propel this team to division champs, but will come down to how aggressive the team plans to be with Trey Lance - who is still very much a work in progress. The Seahawks' loss of Russ Wilson will likely expose Pete Carroll as the worst head coach in league, as he is now unshackled from the pressures of 'letting Russ cook' and can now forces his conservative playcalling down the throats of a talentless team with a bottom-5 offensive line and no visible on-the-field leader. Under 6 wins looks very attractive. 

Hear about this and more from betting strategists @deepvaluebettor, @throwthedamball, and @yanni_bet on the 2022 NFL betting market outlook for the NFC West.

Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting podcast is fueled by SportfolioKings, a next-gen sports betting research platform fueled by advanced data analytics and Wall Street-style trading strategies. We blend the advantages of fundamental analysis, data science, and market- and sentiment-oriented research to identify actionable alpha opportunities in sports markets.

Join us at www.sportfoliokings.com.

Spoiler: our favorite division bets are Patriots under 8.5 wins and Dolphins alt under 8 wins. Tua Tagovailoa has upside if a 49ers-esque short-pass/quick-slant/RPO and YAC-oriented offense is successfully implemented, leveraging the immense speed of their enhanced WR corps - but a lot can also go wrong and market expectations are already elevated, making the bar for success from a betting perspective unduly high. The Patriots loss talent and simply got worse across almost every category imaginable, yet market expectations haven't adjusted enough to the downside - likely due to the mystique of Bill Belichick (which has certainly been earned). The Jets will likely remain the dumpster divers of the division, but should show improvement with a young, speedy, and talented set of pass catchers and a steadily strengthening defense. The Bills remain the cream of the crop, may have been the best team last year, and only got better in the offseason (ex the loss of OC Brian Daboll). It's Super Bowl or bust for this mighty offense.

Hear about this and more from betting strategists @deepvaluebettor, and @throwthedamball on the 2022 NFL betting market outlook for the AFC East.

Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting podcast is fueled by SportfolioKings, a next-gen sports betting research platform fueled by advanced data analytics and Wall Street-style trading strategies. We blend the advantages of fundamental analysis, data science, and market- and sentiment-oriented research to identify actionable alpha opportunities in sports markets.

Join us at www.sportfoliokings.com.

Spoiler: our favorite division bets are Titans alt under 8 wins and Jaguars over 6.5 wins. Trevor Lawrence has the pedigree and potential to be an elite QB, but a resurgent Jaguars defense may be the catalyst for a surprise division title. The Colts rented another aging QB in Matt Ryan and have a crumbling OL, but bettors continue to overestimate their talent. The Titans lost their star WR AJ Brown, it's uncertain if King Henry can return to form, and their OL has been severely downgraded; difficult to depend on their defense to save them in back-to-back seasons. Hear about this and more from betting strategists @deepvaluebettor, @throwthedamball, and @ferd_turgeson on the 2022 NFL betting market outlook for the AFC South.

Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting podcast is fueled by SportfolioKings, a next-gen sports betting research platform fueled by advanced data analytics and Wall Street-style trading strategies. We blend the advantages of fundamental analysis, data science, and market- and sentiment-oriented research to identify actionable alpha opportunities in sports markets.

Join us at www.sportfoliokings.com.

The Bucs offensive line continues to receive steep praise from the media and betting markets, but bringing back only 2 of 5 starters. No Antonio Brown, no Gronk, and now missing several key cogs on the OL: if the Bucs struggle or the OL breaks down mid-season, does Tom Brady risk his health and continue to play out the season? It's a risk few bettors seem to be seriously considering. Hear about this and more from betting strategists @deepvaluebettor, @throwthedamball, and @joea_nfl on the 2022 NFL betting market outlook for the NFC South.

Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting podcast is powered by SportfolioKings, a next-gen sports betting research platform fueled by advanced data analytics and Wall Street-style trading strategies. We blend the advantages of fundamental analysis, data science, and market- and sentiment-oriented research to identify actionable alpha opportunities in sports markets.

Join us at www.sportfoliokings.com.

@ContextCapper is joined this week by @SharpClarkeNFL and @RonAceSports, two of the sharpest handicappers in the NFL scene to breakdown the AFC in a fast-paced round-robin live recorded special.

Each capper has 2 minutes to talk us through a team from each AFC division, followed by a minute of pushback/agreement. 

At the half-way point in the season, this is a chance to do a concise macro view on teams across the AFC and then NFC will get our attention next week.

Zach and Brett break down week 7 briefly (25 minutes) Then spend the next hour diving into week 8. More opportunity in week 8 than week's past, as they look for the tides to turn back in the book's favor.

Are the Cardinals unstoppable?

Will the Chiefs finally turn back toward championship form?

Is Justin Herbert now OVERRATED?

Just some questions to ponder on this week's episode with Zach and Brett as they dig into Week 6 and look ahead to Week 7.