The fourth episode of Alpha Trader features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking to Jim Grant, the founder and editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer.
The business of modern-day central banking, says Grant, is the business of manipulating the most sensitive price in capitalism - the rate of interest. If Jay Powell can't seem to get anything right, it's because the very nature of his job assures he'll be wrong. At least, notes Grant, Powell hasn't taken the U.S. down the path of negative interest rates (yet).
Of the pressure Powell is getting from the man who appointed him to the role, Grant reminds this sort of criticism goes back to the days of Andrew Jackson, but Jackson - with Twitter unavailable - was perhaps a bit more tasteful about it.
Turning to the credit cycle, Grant believes we're at a precarious stage. Exhibit A is Uber, which at the Grant's offices is known as "interest rates on wheels." The company has about $12B in losses over the past few years, and today sits no closer to profitability (or even a path to it). WeWork is a similar story that at least got sniffed out before being sold to the public. Over the course of a few weeks, it went from a $50B valuation to needing a bailout to stay afloat. Efficient Markets Theory anyone?
Grant then brings up a unicorn maybe you haven't heard about, and that's German fintech player N26. Its co-founder over the summer told the FT, "In all honesty, profitability is not one of our core metrics." This, says an incredulous Grant, "is the kind of thing that causes the market gods to hurl down thunderbolts at us mortals."
Moving to long ideas, Grant is a fan of Altria. Yes, it's in the business of selling a product many don't approve of, but the inelasticity of demand for cigarettes over the years has been nothing short of remarkable. Altria continues to generate an enormous amount of cash, allowing for a current dividend yield of 7.5% - positively mountainous in these days of microscopic interest rates.
Prior to chatting with Grant, Task and Alpher discuss the latest Fed rate cut and employment report. The Fed on Wednesday gave off the vibe that it's done with the "mid-cycle adjustment," and the strong jobs number on Friday, for now, is making the central bank look good in that assessment.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices