Alpha Trader

This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Gabriela Santos, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management.


Among the topics covered:

There are lots of positives going into 2022, says Santos, expecting the pandemic to fade further, inflation to moderate, and growth to remain strong. For now, at least, inflation should prove to be a boon to corporate profits. The only thing holding the JPMorgan Asset Management team from being uber-bullish is the starting point for stocks - it’s been a big two years for equities, and valuations are perky as we end 2021.

JPMorgan’s just-completed Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report looks out to the next 10-15 years, and Santos notes it’s somewhat easier to predict returns over this longer period than over the next 12 months. That report sees U.S. equities returning an average of just over 4%. The better opportunities, says Santos, can be found in more reasonably valued Europe and developing markets.

This is Alpha Trader’s final podcast. It’s been a great run over the past two+ years, and we’d like to thank all of our fantastic guests and our sponsor CME Group.

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This week’s Alpha Trader features host Stephen Alpher speaking with Scott Bauer, CEO of Prosper Trading Academy (co-host Aaron Task is off this week).

Among the topics discussed:

The recent market stumbles probably have a lot more to do with the Omicron variant, rather than the Fed speeding up its pace of policy tightening, suggests Bauer. For now, Omicron is more about cases, rather than serious illness, but it’s too early to have a handle on how this plays out.

Of that Fed tightening, Bauer isn’t too worked up about the central bank’s “plan” to maybe hike three times in 2022. That would still leave short rates near historic lows, and even a move in long rates to the 2.5% area shouldn’t pose much issue for the economy.

While leaning bullish on stocks right now, Bauer isn’t trying to hit any home runs thanks to the Omicron wild card. He’s been selling volatility on spikes, noting that seemingly every market downdraft of late has been quickly faded (and he’s using the subsequent rallies to buy back that vol).

Looking into 2022, he’s fan of the recently hit big banks, expecting players like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan to do well alongside the continuing strong economy.

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This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial.

Among the topics covered:

Speaking ahead of the results of this week’s FOMC meeting and after a couple of very speedy inflation prints, Detrick suggests a speedier taper has already been priced in by the markets. Betting on perhaps a more dovish Fed action tomorrow might be something to consider. Looking out to 2022, while markets have priced in three rate hikes, Detrick and team believe there will only be two, with the first move not coming until the second half.

Speaking of inflation, Detrick doesn’t believe we’re in a rerun of the 1970s. Yes, the numbers are ugly at the moment, but market-based signals like nominal bond yields, inflation-protection spreads, and the price of gold suggest there may be a speedy improvement in the inflation outlook.

Turning to the markets in 2022, Detrick continues to favor stocks over bonds. He notes that when the S&P 500 is up 20% for the year (which we’ll likely be in 2021), it’s been up the following year nine consecutive times. And in seven of those instances, the average was up double-digits. Since 1950, the average return following a 20%+ year is 11.5%.

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This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with J.C. Parets, founder and chief strategist at All Star Charts.

Among the topics covered:

The technician’s take on last week’s swoon and this week’s major bounce in the stock market. The Cliff’s Notes: The S&P 500 (SP500) held above its September low of 4,500, setting the stage for the rally.

Swooning along with stocks, were cryptocurrencies, including a flash crash as we slept on Saturday morning, which took bitcoin (BTC-USD) down by about 20% in minutes. Not necessarily bearish on bitcoin, Parets prefers those cryptos showing relative strength, among them Terra (LUNA-USD), TerraCoin (TRC-USD), Decentraland (MANA-USD), Axie Infinity (AXS-USD), and Sandbox (SAND). He’s got a sizable portion of his trading assets invested in these, and at the moment is earning some whopping yields.

While crude oil fell from about $85 per barrel to $65 during November, the Energy Select SPDR (XLE) and the Oil & Gas Exploration SPDR (XOP) barely budged off their highs. That’s the sort of bullish divergence Parets loves to see. He prefers the producers (and thus XOP) to the services names, thanks to the producers’ relative strength. Two favorites are Chevron (CVX) - at a 52-week high despite the price retreat - and Cheniere Energy (LNG), which might have the strongest technicals of any oil & gas name.

Among other nuggets: Buying in hopes of mean reversion is like working in a coal mine, while buying strength is like going to a warm beach. Go to the beach.

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This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking EVs with Pieter Taselaar, founding partner and portfolio manager of Lucerne Capital Management. He’s also the CEO of European Sustainable Growth Acquisition Corp. (EUSG), a SPAC which hopes to soon close on its acquisition of ADS-TEC Energy, a German-based company that manufactures EV charging stations that can charge batteries in minutes without putting strain on a city's electrical grids.

Among the topics covered:

Task and Alpher discuss Fed Chair Jay Powell’s surprising hawkishness on Tuesday morning, which helped send stocks sharply lower. They also dig into Jack Dorsey’s exit from Twitter (TWTR), and what it might mean for the future of that platform

Not an investor in the EV auto manufacturers, Taselaar instead looks for opportunities in companies providing the critical charging and battery infrastructure for the industry.

Key to his thesis is the need for fast charging, and - in addition to above-mentioned ADS-TEC Energy - Taselaar is a fan of Wolfspeed (WOLF), and ASML (ASML), who make the semiconductors necessary for the battery chargers. He’s also an owner of EVgo (EVGO), a pure EV play which could benefit from the subsidies in the Biden infrastructure bill.

Nothing goes in a straight line, of course, and WOLF and EVgo have had rough recent runs. The EV revolution, however, is going nowhere, and Taselaar suggests investors consider adding on dips.

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This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with Jim Iurio, managing director at TJM Institutional Securities.

Among the topics discussed:

Speaking as crude oil prices (CL1:COM) were jumping despite a coordinated governmental effort to boost supplies, Iurio reminds that it’s another entry in the “buy the rumor, sell the fact” mantra. Oil, he notes, was down about $10 per barrel in the weeks leading up to Tuesday morning’s announcement of the SPR release.

Iurio is short the S&P 500 (SP500) for a trade, noting a recent rise in interest rates and significant deterioration in the average stock even as the market gauge remains close to or at an all-time high. This isn’t the “big one,” though, cautions Iurio. A continuation of easy monetary policy should assure that any correction will be a modest one.

The question going forward is whether the current fast inflation numbers have put us at an inflection point, i.e. is nearly 40 years of progressively easier monetary policy coming to an end? Iurio isn’t so sure we’re there yet, but he’s keeping a close eye on developments.

Iurio remains bullish on not just the price, but the disruptive nature of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and Ethereum (ETH-USD). Of news that some high-profile professional athletes are taking their salaries in bitcoin, he does get a bit worried, saying it reminds him of a supermodel who in 2007 demanded to be paid in euros shortly before that currency’s long, steep decline.

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This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher speaking with Dr. Lacy Hunt, executive vice president of Hoisington Capital Management.

Among the topics covered:

Hunt and his partner Van Hoisington have correctly remained steadfastly bullish on long-dated U.S. Treasurys ([[TLT]], [[TBT]]) through multiple inflation scares over the past few decades. They remain bullish today despite some scary recent CPI prints, continuing to point out the clear evidence that over-indebtedness in the U.S. will act as a deflationary force.

This doesn’t mean there won’t be quarters of speedy economic growth and occasional gains in inflation, but once the high of whatever government stimulus du jour wears off, economic sluggishness and a pullback in inflation will reassert. Hunt expects the just-passed $1T fiscal stimulus bill to be yet another example - a short bout of higher growth, but ultimately even worse economic performance down the road thanks to the boosted indebtedness.

Turning to monetary policy, Hunt notes that growth in the money supply has begun to slow even prior to the Fed’s taper, suggesting a coming slowdown in both the economy and inflation. How could this be given that the banks have nearly $1.5 trillion more in reserves than they did a year ago? Banks, Hunt says, are not able to put those reserves to profitable use, so they remain on account at the Fed earning a handful of basis points.

As for yesterday’s hot retail sales report (for October), Hunt believes a lot of folks - reading stories about the possibility of bare shelves come Christmas-time - pulled their buying forward. More interesting to him is last week’s plunge in consumer sentiment, with the sub-index of durable goods purchase expectations falling to one of its lowest reads ever. It suggests to him a serious lack of confidence in the economy. He also takes note of the poor approval numbers for the current administration - prints one would never see were there not major economic concerns.

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This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management.

Among the topics discussed:

While the Fed has begun to taper and may push through a couple of rate hikes next year, Schutte expects the central bank to be very patient about tightening policy. He’s in the “transitory” camp on inflation, noting plenty of slack in the labor market as evidenced by a labor force participation rate that remains quite low.

Given the above combined with growing corporate earnings and a 10-year yield in the 1.50% area, Schutte continues to see stocks as the place to invest.

The “market” may be expensive in some areas, says Schutte, but it depends where you look. The S&P Pure Growth Index trades at 35x next year’s earnings, but the S&P Pure Value Index at just 11x. While there’s been good reasons for Growth to outperform to this point, Schutte sees a shift towards areas that are cheaper.

Noting the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia both reversed themselves on tightening threats in the last couple of weeks, Schutte isn’t seeing any appetite among global central banks to declare war on inflation. Therein lies the risk for the market in future years - that central banks at some point are going to have to really slam on the breaks. That, however, is a question for 2023, or perhaps beyond.

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This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with David Bahnsen, chief investment officer of The Bahnsen Group, and the author of There's No Free Lunch: 250 Economic Truths.

Among the topics discussed:

While the energy sector has been red-hot this year, it’s hard to say things are frothy, says Bahnsen. He notes yield spreads remain high, price-to-earnings and price-to-cash flow multiples remain low, and stock prices for many exploration and production companies are down 30%-50% from the last time oil was in the $80 per barrel area. He notes Chevron (CVX) just had its best cash flow quarter ever, and Exxon’s (XOM) capital discipline during the tough times is paying off in a big way.

As he said during his May appearance on Alpha Trader, Bahnsen believes there’s no more under-appreciated sector in energy than the midstream space, i.e. the players involved in transporting, storing, and pipelines. Yields are strong, valuations are reasonable, and financial metrics continue to improve. He continues to like Kinder Morgan (KMI) and Enterprise Product Partners (EPD), but his major holding is in the USCF Midstream Energy Income Fund ETF (UMI).

A fan of the goal of cleaner energy, Bahnsen is pleased that “grown-ups” like Goldman’s David Solomon and JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon have pledged to continue facilitating capital towards fossil fuel producers, as it’s just not possible at this time for renewables to fuel the globe’s energy needs.

As for the current inflation scare, Bahnsen expects it is cyclical, not secular. The overwhelming level of government debt has been, and will continue to be a major deflationary force. This will again be apparent once the economy works through this expansion’s supply chain and labor shortage issues.

Moving away from the energy sector, Bahnsen is an owner of Merck (MRK) and JPMorgan (JPM), noting healthy and growing dividends for both. Merck has the soon-to-come Covid treatment pill, and the balance sheet for effective M&A ahead of patent cliffs (see the recent Acceleron purchase). JPMorgan, says Bahnsen, is the best-run big bank in the U.S. He reminds of the big dividends the House of Dimon continues to get from its pennies-on-the-dollar financial crisis purchases of Bear Stearns and WAMU.

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This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher chatting with Ben Laidler, global market strategist for eToro.

Among the topics discussed:

Q3 earnings season has been a big reminder that growth is not dead, says Laidler. He sees upside to his 2022 year-end S&P 500 forecast of 5,050 as markets continue to dramatically underestimate earnings power, and still-low bond yields support perky equity valuations.

Markets have already priced in three Fed rate hikes next year. Laidler suspects that’s a quicker pace of tightening than what will actually happen, but he reminds that markets often stage a relief rally once the Fed actually commences with rate hikes.

Laidler is also bullish on commodities, and thinks oil could head into the triple digits. But what about inflation in that scenario? He’s not too concerned, noting how “de-commoditized” Western economies have become.

Turning to Bitcoin, Laidler is bullish there as well. The next move higher, he expects, will come from far greater institutional adoption. It’s only a trickle at this point, but wider acceptance is inevitable.

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