Dr. Rasmus reviews the details of the just announced advance report on US GDP for 2022 and its 4th quarter. After a contraction throughout the first six months of 2022, the US economy ‘recovered’ at only a 2.9% rate in 4th quarter after a meager 3.2% in third quarter. For the entire year US GDP registered a mere 2.1% ‘average for year’ growth. That’s down from 5.9% from 2021 when the economy reopened from the Covid shutdowns. And both those grossly weak numbers occurred after a combined US fiscal-monetary stimulus of more than $8 trillion, provided by the Biden administration (Covid relief, spending, tax cuts) a more than $4 trillion and another $4 trillion provided by the Federal Reserve central bank.  Rasmus breaks down the details of the composition of the 2022 weak 2.1% GDP rise, noting the growth due to excessive business inventory expansion (to decline in 2023), contracting real retail sales at the end of 2022, a continuing housing sector contraction, slowing US exports as the world economy slows, and coming US govt austerity social program spending in 2023.

Alternative Visions - US GDP 2022 Analysis

Dr. Jack Rasmus will focus on today’s continuing crisis in the U.S. and global economies.

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In critical week of the Ukraine war, NATO beginning to panic & threaten escalation: Macron, Cameron & Jeffries talk of NATO troops in Ukraine. Russia reacts announcing tactical nuke exercises and call in UK and French ambassadors. Assassination attempt on Zelensky foiled. Ukraine begins drafting prisoners. Russia Kharkov offensive begins early on May 10. Blinken-Yellen visit and threaten China. Importance of coming BRICS conference in June. Today’s show then turns to US domestic issues and discusses new Report of 11.4% rise in 2023 CEO pay  to record median $23.7 million ( with stock awards up 20%). Shareholders returns also up 13.8% in 2023. All CEO & shareholder data =>3 times current  inflation or wages. Trend to continue as Corp buybacks in 2024 to exceed $700B for Fortune 500(+ another $500B for dividends.  Meanwhile, interest charges on student debt to rise to 6.5%-7.5% and Social Security Fund Trustees warn of inadequate funds for retirees coming

Alternative Visions- Ukraine War Update + US CEO Pay & Other Reports

Today’s show reviews major developments in various global economies: In USA, the Fed’s latest decision to keep interest rates at current levels + its decision to start buying back US Treasuries (QE by another name perhaps?). Why the liquidity injection? Answer: growing concerns about US banks in 2025? Next, is China growing again or not? The idiocy of US policy toward China as Blinken and Yellen attack it economically but request it intervene on behalf of US with Russia and Ukraine. What’s happening in Europe with France announcing it will send troops to Ukraine as EU (and UK) economy stagnates. ECB chair, La Garde, worries about seizing $260B Russian assets. How this may lead to de-dollarization and de-euroization. What’s happening in Argentina as its peso is devalued by 50%. A deeper look at Office Commercial Real Estate in the USA, US Govt Debt, and US Treasury’s record level of current bond buying.

Alternative Visions-  Review of Global Economy Events

The first pass for US GDP for 1st Quarter 2024 was released last week. Today’s show dissects the areas generating growth vs. those slowing US economy. Takeaways from the data are discussed: Contracting now are consumer spending on goods, business private inventories and a big contraction in net exports. Only consumer spending on services continue to drive GDP as government spending slows but remains positive. The show explains why the 1.6% GDP rise in Jan-March was actually lower, once the adjustment for prices is more accurately estimated. Why and how the US low-balls inflation and thereby boosts real GDP. Real growth in US economy was therefore flat. The show then discusses why mainstream economists consistently get their forecasts of the economy wrong—prices, jobs, and GDP—because their forecast models contain multiple assumptions that are simply incorrect.

Alternative Visions- US GDP 1st Quarter 2024 + Why Mainstream Economists’ Forecasts Consistently Fail

today’s show focuses on the theme of the impact of Russian sanctions since the start of the Ukraine war. How the sanctions have failed to impact Russia’s economy while simultaneously helping to wreck Europe’s, and especially the core German economy of the EU. A review of the relative economic data. Also discussed, are the pending US House vote tomorrow likely to pass another $100B in war aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, which will include reportedly US approval to distribute the $300B in seized Russian assets ($240B in Europe banks). This is how the US plans to continue financial support for Ukraine war in 2025, after the $61B ‘bridge’ fund in the US House bill. The show also addresses how US economic policies (of which sanctions are just a part) have undermined Germany’s economy and are making Europe increasingly dependent on the US. Discussion of the latest developments in the Israel-Iran and Ukraine wars concludes the show.

Alternative Visions- USA’s Failing Russian Sanctions Regime: Russia vs. Germany

Today’s show covers the key events, economic & political, of the past week: US latest inflation numbers and trends, why Fed rate cuts are off the table, instability in regional banks and commercial real estate continue, Chase CEO Jamie Dimon’s remarks on rate hikes at 8% and ‘soft landing’ scenario, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in China. In Politics, whether war between Israel-USA with Iran is imminent, latest developments on French & NATO troops in Ukraine, the coming Russian big offensive in Kharkov, Russia’s talk of ‘unconditional surrender’ and Ukraine’s desperate manpower shortage and its new draft law.

Alternative Visions - US GDP 2022 Analysis

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