Here's a question: What's the goal of forecasting? Economist Peter Donner and meteorologist Larry Dunn are both retired from their respective careers predicting the future, and they join Drew to share what they know about the intricacies of forecasting. It may sound dry, but the economic concepts of gain and loss, risk and reward shape good decision making in the backcountry. So, what's the goal of forecasting: accuracy or outcomes? How do you impact decision making--not to mention your reputation--with forecasts that overly cautious or not cautious enough? And how do you minimize risk when out on a tour?

An Avalanche Forecaster, a Meteorologist, and an Economist Walk Into a Bar...

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More often than not, UAC forecaster Craig Gordon heads into the backcountry alone. He loves it. the solitude. Moving at his own pace. Spending as much time as he wants, as much time as it takes to understand the snowpack. He also understands the risks involved in touring alone. Craig joins us to talk through two of his most memorable solo backcountry tours, what he learned out there, and how he came back a changed man.

Craig Gordon and the Zen of Solo Touring

If there's one thing we can all agree on, it's snow. In his 20-plus years as a UAC forecaster for the Logan region, Toby Weed has seen snow's uniting effects. The Logan mountains boast an abundance of terrain, and for years, motorized and non-motorized users battled for the best slopes. But, Weed says, these days, things have changed. He joins us to talk about how, by focusing on the snow, and how to travel safely on it, we can all just get along.

Toby Weed on Sharing the Joys of Powder Snow

There isn’t any hard data on this, but it seems safe to say that Paige Pagnucco is one of very few people who are both full-time avalanche forecasters and MBAs. In fact, she may well be a group of one. Pagnucco, who forecasts for the Logan region, says that, while it may not seem like it at first, there’s actually some significant overlap between business and forecasting. It comes down to messaging. Marketers and forecasters are both trying to figure out how you inspire certain behaviors by saying the right thing in the right way. Pagnucco joins us to explore the nuances of effective communication in a backcountry locale shared equally by motorized and non-motorized users.

Paige Pagnucco on Effective Messaging in Culturally Complex Terrain

The La Sal Mountains of southeastern Utah erupt out of the surrounding red rock desert. They sport steep slopes and big alpine lines that just beg to be skied. But this is expert terrain, says UAC forecaster Eric Trenbeath. It’s highly avalanche prone, especially in the heart of winter, when the coverage is thin. Trenbeath is based in Moab, and he’s been forecasting for the La Sals and nearby Abajos for nearly 15 years. All that time, and for years before he arrived, the shadow of the Gold Basin accident has hung over winter recreation down there. Trenbeath joins us to recount the tragic events of February 12, 1992, and to explain how the shockwave of an avalanche fatality can reverberate through a community for years.

Eric Trenbeath on the Communal Impact of a Tragic Avalanche

Greg Gagne is a self-described conservative backcountry skier. His greatest satisfaction comes from putting in the work before entering avalanche terrain. He wants to know, as well as he possibly can, that the snow he’s traveling on and around is stable. Greg joins us to explore how we grow our knowledge and experience in avalanche terrain, and we also talk about the ingredients of a healthy backcountry community.

An Avalanche Forecaster, a Meteorologist, and an Economist Walk Into a Bar...

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