You Don't Need to Be a Fortune Teller: Signs Point to GOP Sweep This Year
The president's party always loses seats in midterms. This year, just about everything — fundraising, voter enthusiasm, demographic shifts, the issues mix — is going the right way for Republicans.
For Democrats this year, the only real question is whether the elections will be only moderately bad or completely terrible.
If you think like a weather forecaster, all kinds of data point to a major storm. By basically every metric you can think of — fundraising, candidate recruitment, voter enthusiasm, demographic shifts — a big wave is forming that will sweep hundreds of Democrats out of office, up and down the ticket.
The main reason isn’t hard to suss out. Every president can count on his party losing seats in midterms, but President Biden’s approval ratings are particularly bad. On average, 41 percent of Americans approve of the job he’s doing, compared with 54 percent who disapprove. “That is one of the lowest marks of any president since World War II,” says Henry Olsen, a conservative analyst at the Ethics and Public Policy Center. “Unless that changes, I would expect a solid Democratic defeat.”