As I am writing this, it appears that Libya is now completely in the control of the rebels.  Decades of authoritarian rule under Qaddafi are over.  In addition, regime change has now occurred in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen?and Syria remains very unstable.  It is appropriate now to ask, where is this ?Arab Spring? headed?  Quite frankly, no one really knows what all this means and what the results will be.  Perhaps it is better to refer to this as a time of ?Arab Transition,? rather than ?Arab Spring.?  The term ?spring? connotes an emerging democratic Arab world.  I am not certain that is true.  Many of these Arab nations are characterized by tribal societies and how these various tribes will mesh together in these respective nations is truly not known.  Further, in several of these nations, other Middle Eastern powers are very much working behind the scenes.

Permit me to focus on several aspects of this ?transition.?

* First of all, a thought about Syria.  Columnist David Ignatius writes that ?The Syrian confrontation is already devolving into a regional proxy war.  Iran has been rushing assistance to Assad, who is Tehran?s key Arab ally and provides a lifeline to the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon.  To counter the Iranians, a newly emboldened Saudi Arabia has been pumping money to Sunni fighters in Syria.  Damascus is a fault line?for Sunni-Shiite tensions, and for the confrontation between Iran and the United States and Israel.?  As Ignatius argues, it is doubtful that this time of transition in the Arab world will be good for economic development.  Indeed, it will probably slow it considerably.  Few will be interested in investing in these societies until there is some certainty about the nature of this emerging new order.  Secondly, if indeed a democratic order emerges in these nations, it will likely disappoint many, if not most everyone.  The protesters in these various nations have been demanding jobs, freedom from the secret police and personal dignity.  The impatience of the protesters is obvious but it is doubtful they will see these rights realized soon!  For example, Asia (e.g., China) placed economic reform ahead of political reform?and it has worked, at least to some extent.  Will these Arab protesters who have led this transition be patient?  Will they wait?  Finally, these various Arab nations now in transition will need to rise above their sect and tribal loyalties and embrace a tolerance and a spirit of cooperation to build a new nation based on respect and tolerance of differences in religion, ethnicity and tribes.  This is a tall order and many are not convinced that this will occur.  Civil war is a real possibility in some of these nations as the various tribal groups and sects begin to compete for power.  An example of what this could look like is Iraq.  With Saddam gone, the old tribal and religious loyalties are now paramount?the good of the nation as a whole is not!  This time of Arab transition is problematic and perplexing!  No one knows where this will all end.

* Second, what about Israel?  It faces Hezbollah to the north and the uncertainty in Syria could dramatically affect the status of Hezbollah.  Let me explain.  Israel fought two wars in Lebanon, one that ended in 2000 and one in the summer of 2006.  From the first war emerged Hezbollah, playing on the long-oppressed Shiite population in Lebanon and with the bounteous blessing of Iran.  The second war did indeed deter Hezbollah but the UN peacekeepers have proven both unable and unwilling to fulfill their mandate of keeping rockets and arms from flowing to Hezbollah.  In fact, Hezbollah now has some 50,000 rockets, four times the number it had in 2006.  Israel?s antiballistic missile system is very effective and has intercepted 8 missiles fired by Hezbollah.