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Are Democrats about to blow the midterms?
The progressive insurgency inside the Democratic Party isn't slowing down — and prediction markets are starting to price it in. This week on Eventual, world leading trader Domer breaks down how to trade the DSA wave reshaping deep-blue districts, eight years after AOC's first upset rewrote the rules.
We dig into AOC's presidential market — is she a real contender or a long-shot story? Then we talk Chuck Schumer: what does his political future actually look like, and why aren't there more markets on it?
From there, we go deep on Michigan with Zack Stanton of MS NOW. Abdul El-Sayed is surging in the Democratic Senate primary ahead of the August 4th vote, and the markets have him heavy favorite over Rep. Haley Stevens. Is that price right? And if El-Sayed wins, does he hand the seat to Mike Rogers in November?
Plus: California's billionaire wealth tax is sitting at 65% odds to make the ballot — and Gavin Newsom is quietly trying to kill it before the June 25th certification deadline. We debate whether to fade or follow that number.
And Mark Zuckerberg is reportedly building a prediction markets app. What does that mean for Polymarket, Kalshi, and the space overall?
Powered by Polymarket — now back in the U.S. with a new app and a $20 signup bonus.
The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.
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By EventualThe progressive insurgency inside the Democratic Party isn't slowing down — and prediction markets are starting to price it in. This week on Eventual, world leading trader Domer breaks down how to trade the DSA wave reshaping deep-blue districts, eight years after AOC's first upset rewrote the rules.
We dig into AOC's presidential market — is she a real contender or a long-shot story? Then we talk Chuck Schumer: what does his political future actually look like, and why aren't there more markets on it?
From there, we go deep on Michigan with Zack Stanton of MS NOW. Abdul El-Sayed is surging in the Democratic Senate primary ahead of the August 4th vote, and the markets have him heavy favorite over Rep. Haley Stevens. Is that price right? And if El-Sayed wins, does he hand the seat to Mike Rogers in November?
Plus: California's billionaire wealth tax is sitting at 65% odds to make the ballot — and Gavin Newsom is quietly trying to kill it before the June 25th certification deadline. We debate whether to fade or follow that number.
And Mark Zuckerberg is reportedly building a prediction markets app. What does that mean for Polymarket, Kalshi, and the space overall?
Powered by Polymarket — now back in the U.S. with a new app and a $20 signup bonus.
The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.