Today on the show: AI bubble trouble, inflation week, Wisconsin and South Carolina primary night, Fed rate odds, and Jon Turek of JST Advisors joins to talk Anthropic, macro markets, prediction market distributions, and the future of the AI boom. Alex Keeney and Brian Golden break down the biggest markets moving right now.

First: inflation. With the July inflation report coming next week, oil-price pressure from the Iran conflict, an ugly jobs report, and renewed bond-market anxiety, traders are pricing what comes next for the Federal Reserve. Will inflation stay cool? Will the Fed hike in September? And is the 2026 rate-hike market mispriced?

Then: elections. Wisconsin voters head to the polls with Francesca Hong a heavy favorite in the Democratic governor primary. Alex and Brian examine whether 95-cent “yes” shares are still tradable, whether margin markets are too expensive, and whether text-to-web polling is breaking down in high-turnout Democratic primaries.

In South Carolina, a special Republican Senate primary triggered by Lindsey Graham’s sudden death has become a volatile market. Darline Graham, Ralph Norman, and Russell Fry are all in the mix, with polling uncertainty, runoff risk, and second-place markets creating a complicated trade setup.

Plus: Nate Silver’s new model, football almost being back, the Eventual newsletter, 5 Chart Friday, the Smart Money Tracker, Seth Moulton as Pick of the Week, and Best First Trade.

Finally, Jon Turek, founder of JST Advisors and contributor to the Polymarket Oracle newsletter, joins Eventual for a deep dive on AI, Anthropic, OpenAI, macro risk, and political markets. Jon explains why AI capex is entering a new phase, how to think about the “AI bubble burst” market, why Anthropic’s valuation curve may be too narrow, and how prediction markets can price outcomes traditional financial markets cannot. He also discusses open-source AI, Moonshot’s Kimi models, xAI, Alibaba, model-ranking markets, Christine Lagarde and the ECB, France’s 2027 presidential election, Marine Le Pen, and political risk in Israel.

Topics include: AI bubble markets; Anthropic valuation and IPO odds; OpenAI, Google, xAI, Moonshot, Kimi, and Alibaba; AI capex and free cash flow; open-source AI; July CPI and inflation markets; Federal Reserve rate-hike odds; bond yields, oil, and Iran War inflation risk; Wisconsin’s Democratic governor primary; Francesca Hong and David Crowley; polling misses; South Carolina’s Republican Senate primary; Darline Graham, Ralph Norman, and Russell Fry; runoff markets; Nate Silver’s model; Seth Moulton vs. Ed Markey; Christine Lagarde and the ECB; France’s 2027 election; Marine Le Pen; and Israel election markets.

Guest: Jon Turek — Founder, JST Advisors

For more prediction market news and analysis, visit eventual.news.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only.  Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.  Not available in all jurisdictions.  Trading is risky.  100% loss can occur.  See polymarket.com/tos for more information.  The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Iran diplomacy may be gaining momentum, the Strait of Hormuz could be headed toward a new security arrangement, and the Senate’s path to passing major crypto legislation is looking increasingly uncertain.

Alex Keeney and Domer break down the prediction markets around Rep. Max Miller’s political future, an Israel–Iran ceasefire, U.S.–Iran negotiations, Hormuz traffic, Houthi escalation, and the odds of regime change in Iran. They also examine the latest backlash facing prediction markets after Kalshi drew criticism for contracts tied to cancer trials and regulatory decisions.

Rashan Colbert joins the show to assess the CLARITY Act and whether the landmark crypto market-structure bill has any realistic path through a chaotic Senate before recess.

Finally, cannabis policy reporter Natalie Fertig explains the renewed push to reschedule marijuana, the slow-moving DEA and DOJ process, the difference between Schedule I and Schedule III, and what a change in federal policy could mean for cannabis businesses, research, patients, taxes, and state legalization efforts.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only.  Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.  Not available in all jurisdictions.  Trading is risky.  100% loss can occur.  See polymarket.com/tos for more information.  The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Michigan, Midterms, and the Latino Swing Vote

Alex Keeney and Gaetan Dugas discuss the prediction markets around Iran, Todd Blanche’s confirmation, Max Miller’s reelection campaign, and upcoming elections in Michigan and Minnesota.

Logan Phillips of Race to the White House breaks down Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary and the general election outlook.

Mike Madrid, author of The Latino Century, explains why Latino voters are moving away from both parties—and how that could affect the 2026 midterms.

Timestamps

00:00 — Introduction

Guests

Logan Phillips

Mike Madrid

Polymarket is a sponsor of this podcast. For Polymarket.us users:

18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only.  Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.  Not available in all jurisdictions.  Trading is risky.  100% loss can occur.  See polymarket.com/tos for more information.  The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Alex Keeney and Domer break down a chaotic week across politics, crypto, and geopolitics, joined by trader Scott Alicious (David Bensousan) for a rapid-fire top-five trades segment, and Doug Campbell for a deep dive on Iran.

Markets & topics discussed:

Trade these and more on polymarket.us.

Polymarket US disclosure:18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky — 100% loss can occur. See Polymarket's terms of service for more information. The Polymarket US app serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing operation.Hosts and guests may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this newsletter. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this newsletter represent the hosts and guests' analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this newsletter should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only.  Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.  Not available in all jurisdictions.  Trading is risky.  100% loss can occur.  See polymarket.com/tos for more information.  The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Today on the show: it’s officially under 100 days until the 2026 midterms, and both parties are panicking. Republicans are facing enthusiasm problems, Democrats are dealing with money trouble and internal drama, and prediction markets are trying to price the chaos. 

Alex Keeney and Brian Golden break down the latest midterm markets, including control of the House and Senate, Democratic and Republican morale, Michigan’s Senate primary, the Democratic primary calendar, Fed day, Daniel Lurie, Waymo, crypto policy, and how campaigns are starting to think about prediction markets. 

Then Eric Wilson joins Eventual to discuss campaigns, political technology, GOP strategy, and how prediction markets could become part of modern campaign strategy. 

Andrew Prokop also joins to talk about Wisconsin’s warning that election bettors could risk their right to vote, how regulators are approaching Kalshi and prediction markets, and whether the political class understands what these markets actually are. 

Finally, Nihal Krishan joins for a deep dive on Chinese open-source AI, the White House debate over banning Chinese AI models, Silicon Valley’s split over open-source AI, and whether prediction markets are asking the right questions about the future of artificial intelligence.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only.  Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.  Not available in all jurisdictions.  Trading is risky.  100% loss can occur.  See polymarket.com/tos for more information.  The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Today on the show: the Federal Reserve heads into one of its most unpredictable meetings in years, Polymarket traders face massive rate-decision exposure, Marine Le Pen is suddenly back in the French presidential mix, and Roman Terekh from Bravado joins to break down five prediction market shockers. 

Alex Keeney and Pratik Chougule dig into the Fed’s July rate decision market, where nearly $90 million in volume has turned next week’s meeting into what Alex calls “the greatest liquidation event since Bob’s Furniture’s Fourth of July sale.” With cooler inflation, renewed Middle East conflict, energy-price jitters, and a new Fed chair in Kevin Warsh, traders are asking whether “no rate change” is a buying opportunity — or whether the market is finally pricing in a real hawkish turn. 

Then: WTF France? Marine Le Pen’s odds have surged after a court lifted her ban from running for president, even as an electronic monitoring tag could complicate her campaign. Is this a buy, sell, or hold moment for traders looking at the 2027 French election? Plus, Oracle of the Week and a special segment with Roman from Bravado on prediction market behavior: misleading PnLs, how long trading accounts survive, concentration of wealth, whale signal vs. retail signal, and how long it takes to become a prediction market black belt.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only.  Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.  Not available in all jurisdictions.  Trading is risky.  100% loss can occur.  See polymarket.com/tos for more information.  The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Today on the show: World Cup diplomacy gets weird, Trump looks past Canada and Mexico, Michigan Democrats spiral into a brutal Senate primary, Maine picks its Graham Platner replacement,  and Chinese AI sends traders hunting for signal. Alex Keeney and Brian Golden break down the latest prediction market action across politics, AI, trade, Congress, and the 2026 midterms — including USMCA extension odds, Michigan Senate primary markets, Maine Senate fallout, and Troy Jackson’s rise.

Then Peter Wildeford, head of policy at the AI Policy Network and a longtime prediction market forecaster, joins Eventual for a deep dive on Chinese AI, Moonshot’s Kimi 3, whether the AI bubble is at risk, what Washington actually understands about artificial intelligence, and why data centers are becoming one of the next major fronts in American politics. 

Guest: Peter Wildeford — Head of Policy, AI Policy Network Follow Peter Wildeford: X: @PeterWildeford Substack: blog.peterwildeford.com 

Hosted by: Alex Keeney & Brian Golden 

For more prediction market news and analysis, visit eventual.news. 

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only.  Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.  Not available in all jurisdictions.  Trading is risky.  100% loss can occur.  See polymarket.com/tos for more information.  The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

David Ellison's high-stakes bid to merge Paramount with Warner Bros Discovery is hitting a wall — and it's not the kind of wall Hollywood is used to. California Attorney General Rob Bonta and a coalition of Democratic state AGs are fighting to block the deal, setting up a courtroom showdown with massive implications for the future of media and tech. Alex Keeney from Eventual and Rich Greenfield dig into the legal battle, the political motivations behind it, and what prediction markets are already signaling about the merger's odds. Tune in for the latest on the Paramount-Warner Bros Discovery merger fight, the blue-state AG coalition trying to stop it, and what the smart money on Polymarket says about where this heads next. 🔗 Trade the outcome yourself at polymarket.us

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only.  Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.  Not available in all jurisdictions.  Trading is risky.  100% loss can occur.  See polymarket.com/tos for more information.  The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

The Bulwark's Sonny Bunch joins to break down the backlash to Nolan's The Odyssey, whether online outrage predicts box office, and a Best Picture lightning round (Obsession, Project Hail Mary, Michael, The Invite, Fjord). Plus: Alex and Brian trade Congress's "nothing ever happens" bet, an inflation surprise scrambling the Fed outlook, fading Mbappé for the golden ball, and Alex's Susan Collins short in Maine.

Powered by Polymarket. Back in the U.S. — polymarket.us

Hosts and guests may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed. Views expressed are for informational purposes only and not investment or trading advice.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only.  Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.  Not available in all jurisdictions.  Trading is risky.  100% loss can occur.  See polymarket.com/tos for more information.  The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Domer & Alex Keeney breaks down the latest in politics, prediction markets, and election odds — from Graham Platner dropping out in Maine to Nigel Farage facing Count Binface in the world’s dumbest by-election.

Then David DesRosiers, publisher of RealClearPolitics and host of Get Real, joins Eventual to talk about polling, Polymarket, prediction markets, political science, the future of election forecasting, the 2026 midterms, Democratic Socialists in primaries, big-city politics, gender polarization, and what Republicans and Democrats can learn from each other.

Topics include:

Graham Platner drops out of the Maine Senate race

Maine Democrats scramble to pick a replacement nominee

Troy Jackson, Shenna Bellows, Nirav Shah, Jordan Wood, and Dan Kleban

Maine Senate election odds and 2026 Senate control

Nigel Farage, Reform UK, and Count Binface

The UK’s strangest by-election

RealClearPolitics adding Polymarket odds

Polling averages vs. prediction markets

Why prediction markets matter for political analysis

The future of election forecasting after 538

House and Senate control markets

DSA-aligned candidates in Democratic primaries

Urban decline, migration, and big-city politics

Young men, gender polarization, and the Trump coalition

What the GOP and Democrats can learn from each other

Guest:

David DesRosiers — Publisher, RealClearPolitics

Sponsored segment:

Includes a Polymarket ad read.

Disclaimer:

Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this stream should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Guests, hosts, and viewers may hold positions in prediction markets and may change those positions at any time. Nothing here is an endorsement to buy, sell, or trade any market. Trade safe and follow all applicable laws and platform rules in your jurisdiction.

Subscribe to Eventual for more politics, prediction markets, election odds, and probabilistic analysis.

#PredictionMarkets #Polymarket #RealClearPolitics #Politics #Election2026 #Midterms #MaineSenate #GrahamPlatner #NigelFarage #CountBinface #Polling #ElectionForecasting #PoliticalScience #Eventual

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only.  Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply.  Not available in all jurisdictions.  Trading is risky.  100% loss can occur.  See polymarket.com/tos for more information.  The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.