Eventual

Are Democrats getting too expensive in the prediction markets? On today’s Eventual, Alex and the crew dig into the latest midterm pricing — from Senate control and Texas to Montana and Los Angeles — and ask where traders may still be finding uncertainty as Election Day gets closer.

Then, prediction markets themselves come under the microscope. The CFTC is scrutinizing so-called mention markets, warning that contracts based on what someone says, does or attends can pose heightened manipulation concerns. What could that mean for one of prediction markets’ most popular — and most chaotic — categories?
We also crack open the Eventual Mailbag: How should traders think about the time value of money in contracts that might take years to resolve? And how could the 2026 midterms reshape the early market for the 2028 presidential race?

Austin Federa joins the show to talk crypto, Bitcoin, fintech and where prediction markets sit on the adoption curve. Are prediction markets today where crypto was in 2017? How will Polymarket, Kalshi, Coinbase, Kraken, DraftKings and the rest of the growing ecosystem differentiate themselves? And what prediction-market applications haven't traders even thought of yet?

Finally, Katey Rich, awards editor at The Ankler and host of Prestige Junkie, joins Brian for the beginning of Oscar season. They break down Julianne Moore and The Debut, The Odyssey versus the field, La Bola Negra, The Invite, Obsession, Andrew Scott and the contenders emerging from the fall festivals. Katey’s post-TIFF coverage has highlighted the growing awards momentum around Julianne Moore and several of this season’s newest contenders.

On today’s show:
📊 Are Democrats getting overbought?
⚖️ CFTC scrutiny of mention markets
📬 Eventual Mailbag: long-duration trades & 2028
 ₿ Austin Federa on crypto + prediction markets
🎬 Katey Rich previews the 2027 Oscars
🏆 The Odyssey vs. the field
🎭 Julianne Moore, Andrew Scott & the fall festival contenders

Eventual is your OG prediction market show — politics, markets, sports, culture and everything traders are watching.

Sponsored segment:
Includes a Polymarket ad read. Polymarket US is back in the United States at polymarket.us.

Disclaimer:
Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this episode should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Hosts, guests, and viewers may hold positions in prediction markets and may change those positions at any time. Nothing here is an endorsement to buy, sell, or trade any market. Trade safe and follow all applicable laws and platform rules in your jurisdiction.

If using Polymarket US, remember it is 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading is risky, and 100% loss can occur. Not available in all jurisdictions. See polymarket.com/tos for more information.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Artificial Intelligence is out. “Super Intelligence” is in — at least if President Trump gets his way.

Alex Keeney and Brian Golden break down Trump’s latest AI comments after he used his U.N. General Assembly appearance to reject broader international controls on AI and promote “super intelligence” as his preferred terminology.

What does that mean for the prediction markets around AI regulation, Anthropic safety incidents, U.S.–China AI coordination and Trump’s attempted AI rebrand? Plus, with six weeks until the midterms, the guys look at the latest polling, campaign money and whether the expanding congressional battlefield is creating new opportunities for traders. Major ad spending is already stretching into traditionally Republican House territory as both parties define their late-cycle battlegrounds. Featured story from Punchbowl News.

Then Charles McElwee joins Eventual for a deep dive into Pennsylvania: Scott Perry and PA-10, PA-07, Rob Bresnahan and Paige Cognetti in PA-08, and what the Keystone State can tell us about the broader midterm environment.
And later, Elf joins the show for college football trades: Notre Dame, Miami, USC, Texas at Tennessee, home-field advantage, Arch Manning vs. Trinidad Chambliss in the Heisman market, rain-delay trading lessons and the eternal question of whether West Coast teams can tackle.

Also on the show: campaign cash, Iran, China, AOC’s 2028 VP market, Oscar season, AI doom, and whether Alex’s Eventual White House keycard still works.

Eventual is your OG prediction market show — politics, markets, sports, culture and everything traders are watching.

Sponsored segment:
Includes a Polymarket ad read. Polymarket US is back in the United States at polymarket.us.

Disclaimer:
Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this episode should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Hosts, guests, and viewers may hold positions in prediction markets and may change those positions at any time. Nothing here is an endorsement to buy, sell, or trade any market. Trade safe and follow all applicable laws and platform rules in your jurisdiction.

If using Polymarket US, remember it is 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading is risky, and 100% loss can occur. Not available in all jurisdictions. See polymarket.com/tos for more information.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Alex Keeney and Domer run through the biggest market movers heading into the midterms, including the latest Federal Reserve trade, shifting Senate-control markets, the CLARITY Act setback, AI politics, energy prices, and the people who could have an outsized impact on markets over the final stretch of the campaign.

They also check in on one of the stranger elections across the Atlantic: the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, where Labour faces an increasingly interesting challenge from the Greens.

Then Dan Rasmussen, founder and managing partner of Verdad Advisers and author of The Humble Investor, joins the show to connect the worlds of traditional finance and prediction markets. Rasmussen explains why investors should think of markets as forecasting machines, what prediction traders can learn from value investing and momentum, why consensus trades can become dangerous, and where prediction markets may actually offer Wall Street an informational edge. Rasmussen is the founder and managing partner of Verdad Advisers, which manages more than $1 billion across multiple asset classes.

Alex also puts Dan through a prediction-market lightning round covering recession risk, Anthropic, an OpenAI IPO, SaaS, Federal Reserve policy, and—most importantly—which prediction-market trading-club name could survive a meeting with institutional investors.

On today’s show:
Federal Reserve • 2026 midterms • Senate control • CLARITY Act • AI regulation • Kevin Warsh • prediction markets • Polymarket • energy prices • Holborn and St Pancras • Dan Rasmussen • Verdad Advisers • The Humble Investor • value investing • momentum • forecasting • Wall Street • Anthropic • OpenAI
For more prediction market news and analysis, visit eventual.news.

Sponsored segment:
Includes a Polymarket ad read. Polymarket US is back in the United States at polymarket.us.

Disclaimer:
Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this episode should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Hosts, guests, and viewers may hold positions in prediction markets and may change those positions at any time. Nothing here is an endorsement to buy, sell, or trade any market. Trade safe and follow all applicable laws and platform rules in your jurisdiction.

If using Polymarket US, remember it is 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading is risky, and 100% loss can occur. Not available in all jurisdictions. See polymarket.com/tos for more information.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Is AI regulation finally moving in Washington — and is Kansas actually competitive?

On today’s episode of Eventual, Alex and Pratik break down the latest prediction-market angles across politics, policy, and culture.

First, they dig into the growing fight over AI regulation in Washington: whether an AI safety bill has any real path forward, how lawmakers are talking about the issue, whether “effective altruism” has become a political liability, and what the market is saying about 2026 versus 2027.

Then they turn to Texas, where they run through several notable races and prices, including Monica de la Cruz, Brandon Herrera, Henry Cuellar, Eric Flores, and Mayes Middleton, and ask what traders should make of the latest moves.

After that, they hit the Novig / Sydney Sweeney controversy and the backlash from female athletes, asking whether this is a sign of peak prediction-market culture — or just the next phase of it.

Finally, David Hudnall joins Eventual to discuss the Kansas Senate race and the case for taking a closer look at Roger Marshall’s reelection prospects. They talk about the limits of the polling, how money flows into a race like this, the role of third-party candidate David Graham, what made past Kansas Democratic wins unusual, and what would actually need to happen for this race to become truly competitive.

Topics in this episode:
AI regulation • AI safety bill • Brett Guthrie • effective altruism • Washington policy • Texas House races • Monica de la Cruz • Brandon Herrera • Henry Cuellar • Mayes Middleton • Novig • Sydney Sweeney • Roger Marshall • Kansas Senate • David Hudnall • prediction markets • Polymarket

For more prediction market news and analysis, visit eventual.news.

Sponsored segment:
Includes a Polymarket ad read. Polymarket US is back in the United States at polymarket.us.

Disclaimer:
Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this episode should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Hosts, guests, and viewers may hold positions in prediction markets and may change those positions at any time. Nothing here is an endorsement to buy, sell, or trade any market. Trade safe and follow all applicable laws and platform rules in your jurisdiction.

If using Polymarket US, remember it is 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading is risky, and 100% loss can occur. Not available in all jurisdictions. See polymarket.com/tos for more information.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Is Texas really becoming competitive — or are traders getting ahead of themselves?

Alex Keeney and Pratik Chougule break down the latest midterm polling and prediction-market action before turning to one of Washington’s biggest emerging fights: what, if anything, the U.S. government should do about increasingly powerful AI models.

Nick Fitz and Griff Bohm join Eventual to explain what it actually means to “pace the frontier,” whether the major AI labs could coordinate on safety, the prospects for federal AI legislation, U.S.–China cooperation, model reviews, and the increasingly complicated politics surrounding Anthropic, OpenAI and the rest of the industry.

Then Scottilicious joins for the latest on the CLARITY Act and the battle over crypto market-structure legislation in Washington.

Finally, Brad Johnson of the Texas Bullpen joins Alex and Pratik for a deep dive into Texas politics: James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton, whether recent polling signals a genuinely competitive Senate race, the political direction of South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, Monica De La Cruz and TX-15, Henry Cuellar, Brandon Herrera, the statewide ballot, Texas gambling and prediction-market regulation, and the growing backlash to data-center development.

Prediction markets give us prices. Eventual asks whether those prices make sense.

On this episode:
James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton • Texas Senate 2026 • 2026 midterms • generic ballot • House and Senate control • AI safety regulation • Anthropic • OpenAI • Elon Musk • U.S.–China AI competition • frontier AI • CLARITY Act • crypto regulation • Texas politics • Rio Grande Valley • prediction markets • Polymarket

For more prediction market news and analysis, visit eventual.news.

Sponsored segment:
Includes a Polymarket ad read. Polymarket US is back in the United States at polymarket.us.

Disclaimer:
Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this episode should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Hosts, guests, and viewers may hold positions in prediction markets and may change those positions at any time. Nothing here is an endorsement to buy, sell, or trade any market. Trade safe and follow all applicable laws and platform rules in your jurisdiction.

If using Polymarket US, remember it is 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading is risky, and 100% loss can occur. Not available in all jurisdictions. See polymarket.com/tos for more information.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Fall Ball is here. Trump-a-Palooza rolls into Day 2, NFL season markets are live, and Fed rate hike odds are moving again ahead of CPI.

Alex Keeney and Domer open with the latest from Trump-a-Palooza, including what Trump’s convention messaging says about family, legacy, “communists,” “weirdos,” and the political tone heading into the midterms. They also discuss how Republican and Democratic messaging could matter for key midterm markets, including races involving candidates like Mike Rogers and Susan Collins.

Then we go deep on the NFL season with Captain Jack Andrews, founder of Unabated, and Anthony Dabbundo of The Ringer. After a low-scoring Wednesday night opener between the Seahawks and Patriots, the crew asks what bettors should actually be watching this season: NFL futures, player markets, team markets, MVP odds, Super Bowl paths, and whether political trading tactics can translate to sports betting.

Topics include:

NFL season betting preview
Seahawks vs. Rams
Bills, Chiefs, Rams, and Seahawks futures
Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson MVP markets
Player props vs. team markets
How sports bettors size positions
Whether to get in early, fade overreactions, and avoid betting your own team

Later, Jordan Weissmann joins to talk about the Federal Reserve, CPI, jobs reports, and whether traders should believe anything in the lead-up to a potential rate hike. With Fed hike markets active on Polymarket US and CPI forecasts in focus, the question is simple: what actually matters when every jobs and inflation forecast seems wrong?

The show also covers:

Fed rate hike odds in September
Fed rate hike odds in 2026
August CPI expectations
Jerome Powell, Kevin Warsh, and Jackson Hole communication
The CME, jobs reports, and inflation forecasts
Whether Fed markets are giving traders signal or noise

Finally, Alex and Domer return for Oracle of the Week, featuring Jacob Fortinsky of Novig, A24, and whatever else survives the first week of Fall Ball.

For more prediction market news and analysis, visit eventual.news.

Sponsored segment:
Includes a Polymarket ad read. Polymarket US is back in the United States at polymarket.us.

Disclaimer:
Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this episode should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Hosts, guests, and viewers may hold positions in prediction markets and may change those positions at any time. Nothing here is an endorsement to buy, sell, or trade any market. Trade safe and follow all applicable laws and platform rules in your jurisdiction.

If using Polymarket US, remember it is 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading is risky, and 100% loss can occur. Not available in all jurisdictions. See polymarket.com/tos for more information.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Trump-a-Palooza comes to Dallas, US Open markets heat up after Ben Shelton’s upset over Carlos Alcaraz, Kalshi’s legal fight moves closer to the Supreme Court, and Pascal co-founder Matt Downey explains his vision for the next generation of prediction-market trading.

Alex Keeney and Pratik Chougule break down the latest prediction-market action across politics, sports, regulation, and trading technology.

First: Republicans are gathering in Dallas for a highly unusual midterm convention built around President Donald Trump. The event is being billed as “Trump-a-Palooza,” putting Trump at the center of the fall midterms—whether candidates in tight races want him there or not.

The show looks at what traders should watch in Trump speech markets, RNC convention mention markets, and the broader question of whether Trump is coming out of retirement as the main character of the midterm campaign.

Then: the US Open. Ben Shelton stunned Carlos Alcaraz in a late-night quarterfinal thriller as two American men advanced deep into the tournament. Alex and Pratik examine US Open winner markets, the value of tennis longshots, possible home-court advantages for American players, and whether traders have consistently overpriced the tournament’s biggest favorites.

Next: Kalshi goes to court. New Jersey has petitioned the Supreme Court to hear its dispute with Kalshi, bringing prediction markets closer to a potential legal showdown over event contracts and state gambling laws. With Polymarket traders pricing the odds that the Supreme Court accepts a prediction-market case this year, Pratik explains why those odds may be too high, why the apparent circuit split may be premature, and how CFTC rulemaking could produce a more complicated legal patchwork in 2027 and beyond.

Finally, Pascal co-founder Matt Downey joins the show to discuss the company’s attempt to build a non-custodial prediction market designed specifically for serious traders. Downey explains how Pascal uses on-chain infrastructure and USDC collateral, why professional-grade order execution and market liquidity remain major challenges, and how his experience losing money on FTX shaped the platform’s design.

The conversation also explores the future of human traders in an increasingly automated market. Downey argues that algorithms will eventually eliminate some of the speed advantages enjoyed by “click traders,” but that human judgment, specialized knowledge, qualitative research, and original models of how the world works will remain valuable.

Plus: why prediction markets need high-frequency, mid-frequency, and discretionary traders operating together; what traditional finance can teach the industry; why liquidity begets liquidity; and what Pascal hopes to borrow from PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi, and the prediction-market platforms that came before it.

Topics include:

Trump-a-Palooza in Dallas
RNC midterm convention
Trump speech markets
What will Trump say at the convention?
Trump and the 2026 midterms
Republicans skipping the Dallas convention
Midterm campaign strategy
Mention markets
US Open markets
Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe
Ben Shelton upsets Carlos Alcaraz
US Open winner odds
American tennis markets
Tennis longshots
Favorite-longshot bias
Kalshi court case
Prediction markets and SCOTUS
New Jersey petition to the Supreme Court
Writ of certiorari
Circuit splits
Event contracts and regulation
Kalshi vs. state regulators
CFTC prediction-market rules
Polymarket and political markets
Sports markets and prediction markets
Pascal prediction market
Matt Downey
Non-custodial prediction markets
On-chain trading
USDC collateral
Professional prediction-market traders
Algorithmic trading
High-frequency trading
Click traders
Trading infrastructure
Order books and liquidity
Prediction-market automation
Human judgment vs. trading algorithms
FTX and counterparty risk
PredictIt, Polymarket, and Kalshi

Hosted by:

Alex Keeney
Pratik Chougule

Featuring:

Matt Downey, co-founder of Pascal

For more prediction-market news and analysis, visit eventual.news.

Sponsored segment:

Includes a Polymarket ad read. Polymarket US is back in the United States at polymarket.us.

Disclaimer:

Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this episode should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Hosts, guests, and viewers may hold positions in prediction markets and may change those positions at any time. Nothing here is an endorsement to buy, sell, or trade any market. Trade safely and follow all applicable laws and platform rules in your jurisdiction.

If using Polymarket US, remember it is for users 18 and older only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading is risky, and a 100% loss can occur. It is not available in all jurisdictions. See polymarket.com/tos for more information.

Some featured markets discussed may not be available to U.S. users and are included for informational purposes only.

Subscribe to Eventual for prediction-market news, Polymarket analysis, Kalshi coverage, political trading, sports markets, election odds, legal markets, trading technology, and probabilistic thinking.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Today on the show: election season is here, inflation may be back, Fed trades are getting messy, and Patrick Ruffini joins Eventual to talk polling error, midterm markets, low-propensity voters, and whether summer Senate polls are giving traders the wrong signal.

Alex Keeney and Brian Golden start by getting into the head of the median voter: McDonald’s, Bud Light, Monster Energy, gas prices, data centers, and just enough ChatGPT to get through laundry day.

Then: it’s Election SZN. Alex and Brian go long or short on the first wave of midterm markets, including Georgia, North Carolina, Maine, Nebraska, Alaska, and the broader question of which races are already moving from “competitive” to “basically called” in trader discourse.

The show also looks at Georgia, where new reporting has raised questions about Mike Collins’s campaign against Jon Ossoff. Is the Georgia Senate race already in “done chain” territory, or is that exactly the kind of early-cycle certainty that gets traders in trouble?

Then: campaign-season awards. Alex and Brian talk about candidate narratives, strong and weak campaigns, partisan tides, House control, and whether some “great candidate” stories are about to run into the hard math of the midterms.

Next: inflation. With core CPI due, oil nearing $100 after Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, and Fed hike markets moving again, the guys break down what traders should watch in the August CPI report. Month-over-month vs. year-over-year inflation, headline vs. core, and small decimal-place differences may decide whether September becomes a real Fed hike debate.

Plus: Nathan Fielder, Elizabeth Holmes, Oscar season, Harry and Meghan back in the UK, the GTA VI trailer, and why big cultural prediction markets are starting to feel like real macro instruments.

Then Patrick Ruffini joins Eventual to discuss whether recent Senate polls have systematically overstated Democrats, how far back the pattern goes, what role white non-college voters and low-propensity voters play in polling error, and whether the polling industry still deserves the benefit of the doubt heading into the midterms.

The conversation also covers Trump’s role in midterm turnout, affordability and economic pressure, Texas polling, gerrymandering, House seat markets, polling variance, and whether “polls biased?” is a data story, a sociology story, or both.

Finally: Pick of the Week — Iowa State/Iowa UNDER 40.5.

Topics include:
Election season begins
Prediction market trading in the midterms
Georgia Senate market
Jon Ossoff and Mike Collins
North Carolina Senate market
Roy Cooper
Maine Senate market
Troy Jackson
Nebraska Senate market
Pete Ricketts
Alaska Senate market
Mary Peltola
House control markets
Senate markets
Candidate narratives and partisan tides
Polling error
Polls biased toward Democrats?
Patrick Ruffini on midterm polling
Low-propensity voters
White non-college voters
Latino voters and polling
Trump and midterm turnout
Inflation report preview
Core CPI
Month-over-month vs. year-over-year inflation
Fed hike in September
Fed hike in 2026
Oil near $100
Houthi attacks and energy prices
Gas prices and the median voter
Data centers and voter sentiment
Nathan Fielder
Elizabeth Holmes
Oscar season
Harry and Meghan
GTA VI trailer
Iowa State vs. Iowa UNDER 40.5

Guest:
Patrick Ruffini

Hosted by:
Alex Keeney
Brian Golden

For more prediction market news and analysis, visit eventual.news.

Sponsored segment:
Includes a Polymarket ad read. Polymarket US is back in the United States at polymarket.us.

Disclaimer:
Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this episode should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Hosts, guests, and viewers may hold positions in prediction markets and may change those positions at any time. Nothing here is an endorsement to buy, sell, or trade any market. Trade safe and follow all applicable laws and platform rules in your jurisdiction.

If using Polymarket US, remember it is 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading is risky, and 100% loss can occur. Not available in all jurisdictions. See polymarket.com/tos for more information.

Some featured markets discussed may not be available to U.S. users and are included for informational purposes only.

Subscribe to Eventual for prediction market news, Polymarket analysis, Kalshi coverage, political trading, election odds, polling analysis, Fed markets, inflation trades, and probabilistic thinking.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Trump’s revenge tour, pardon markets, political arrest markets, Todd Blanche’s future at the Justice Department, and new legal trouble for prediction markets after a major Ninth Circuit fight involving Kalshi. Alex Keeney breaks down a short but packed episode covering the U.S. Open, Fed rate markets, Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, Congress returning to Washington, and the court decision that could shape the future of sports and political event contracts. First: Fed rates. Markets now show rising odds of a rate hike this year, with September in focus after Kevin Warsh’s speech flipped expectations. Alex looks at the September Fed decision market, dumb money on both sides of the trade, and why traders are split heading into the Sept. 15 meeting. Then: legal problems for prediction markets. Mick Bransfield’s reporting at Eventual explains why traders have been watching the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals for clues about Kalshi, Nevada, sports trading, and the future of event contracts. Are we still in the golden age of prediction market trading, or is the legal environment starting to tighten? The main segment features Ankush Khardori, author of Open File, former federal prosecutor, legal analyst, and New York Times opinion contributor. Ankush joins Alex and Pratik Chougule to discuss Todd Blanche, Trump’s Justice Department, the New York bar market, and whether Blanche could ever face suspension or disbarment. The conversation then turns to Trump’s political enemies and “revenge tour” markets: John Brennan, Anthony Fauci, James Comey, Adam Schiff, James Clapper, Letitia James, Loretta Lynch, Susan Rice, and others. Ankush explains how venue, grand juries, DOJ incentives, timing, and presidential pressure all matter when thinking about whether political investigations could turn into actual arrests or indictments. Finally, the show looks at Trump’s pardon pen. Trump has already shown a willingness to use pardons aggressively, but can traders forecast them? Ankush discusses the informal pardon economy, political connections, white-collar crime, January 6 pardons, Derek Chauvin, Maduro, and why Trump’s pardon process may be unusually ad hoc. Topics include: Trump revenge tour markets Who will be arrested before 2027? Trump pardon markets Todd Blanche attorney general Todd Blanche disbarment market New York bar discipline Justice Department independence Trump and the DOJ Political prosecutions and legal norms John Brennan market Anthony Fauci market James Comey market Adam Schiff market James Clapper market Letitia James market Loretta Lynch and Susan Rice Grand juries and venue shopping Florida investigations DC grand juries John Bolton classified documents case Trump pardon strategy January 6 pardons Derek Chauvin pardon market Maduro pardon market Prediction market legal trouble Kalshi Ninth Circuit case Nevada sports trading ban Political event contract regulation Fed rate hike markets Kevin Warsh Jackson Hole speech September Fed decision Congress returns to Washington Guest: Ankush Khardori — author of Open File Hosted by: Alex Keeney Pratik Chougule For more prediction market news and analysis, visit eventual.news. Sponsored segment: Includes a Polymarket ad read. Polymarket US is back in the United States at polymarket.us. Disclaimer: Eventual is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this episode should be understood as financial, legal, investment, gambling, or trading advice. Hosts, guests, and viewers may hold positions in prediction markets and may change those positions at any time. Nothing here is an endorsement to buy, sell, or trade any market. Trade safe and follow all applicable laws and platform rules in your jurisdiction. If using Polymarket US, remember it is 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading is risky, and 100% loss can occur. Not available in all jurisdictions. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. Some featured markets discussed may not be available to U.S. users and are included for informational purposes only. Subscribe to Eventual for prediction market news, Polymarket analysis, Kalshi coverage, legal markets, political trading, election odds, Fed markets, and probabilistic thinking.

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Kevin Warsh heads to Jackson Hole, oil risk is back in the Fed conversation, Ukraine’s drone campaign is hitting Russia’s fuel supply, and prediction market regulation is entering a new phase.

Alex Keeney is joined by Doug Campbell to break down the latest action across macro, geopolitics, prediction markets, and regulation. The show starts with small talk on Meta’s $18 billion settlement, the future of data centers, and the emerging political consensus as figures like Greg Abbott and Josh Shapiro turn against parts of the tech buildout.

Then: Warsh Watch. With markets focused on the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole speech, Kevin Warsh faces pressure to clarify his views on inflation, rate hikes, bond markets, Treasury interventions, and the relationship between the Fed and the Treasury. What does it mean if the speech is boring? What would Warsh actually say if he wanted to signal a rate hike? And are traders overpricing the odds of a Fed hike this year?

The show also connects the Fed conversation to Iran, oil, and global risk. If a deal involving Iran and Oman gets oil moving again, does that reduce pressure on inflation and make a rate hike less likely? And if oil risk fades, what does that mean for election markets?

Next: Ukraine. Reports of a worsening fuel crisis inside Russia raise new questions about whether Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure is changing the war’s strategic picture. Alex and Doug look at Ukraine ceasefire markets, Russia’s gasoline shortages, and whether the current window before the midterms and Russian election creates any real chance of a deal.

Then: Bet Sizing 101. Doug lays out a practical framework for sizing +EV prediction market trades without waking up at 3 a.m. to check the price — and why being underwater is not always a signal that you were wrong.

Finally, Mick Bransfield joins Eventual to talk prediction market regulation. States are increasingly targeting political and election event contracts, with legal and regulatory fights developing in Arizona, Minnesota, Nevada, New York, Washington, and Wisconsin. Is this pre-election panic, legal dirty tricks, or the beginning of a larger crackdown? And does Don Jr.’s connection to the industry make prediction markets safer — or more politically exposed?

Topics include: Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve rate hike markets, Inflation and bond market risk, Treasury interventions, Scott Bessent and Fed politics, Iran, Oman, and oil markets, Oil prices and election risk, Ukraine ceasefire markets, Russia gasoline shortages, Ukrainian drone strikes on energy infrastructure, Russia fuel crisis, How to size prediction market bets, +EV betting and bankroll discipline, Oracle of the Week, Dunce of the Week, Alaska voters, Rigatohni, GOP insiders, Mick Bransfield on prediction market regulation, Political event contracts, Election market regulation, Arizona criminal charges, Minnesota legislation, Nevada, New York, Washington, and Wisconsin, Don Jr. and prediction markets, Polymarket, Kalshi, and regulatory trouble

The authors may hold positions in prediction markets related to topics discussed in this article. Positions may change at any time without notice. The views expressed in this article represent the author’s analysis and opinion and are provided for informational purposes only. Nothing in this article should be construed as investment advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

For Polymarket US users:
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.